LeBron: From King to Jester

I didn't see the big production last night; I was traveling with my wife and two daughters, and got back to our house hours after it was done. I have watched highlights, and red scathing POVs like Tony Massarotti's in the Boston Globe. And I read Bill Simmons' preview as well.

So where do I sit? Well, LeBron is an idiot, that is clear. He basically raised a big middle finger to an entire fan base and possibly even a state, and he seems oblivious. And he did it on national television in a bizarre, inhuman way. All very strange.

What I Know

1. If I were a Cavs fan, I would hope for LeBron's eternal destruction until my dying breath. Not just because he left (potentially forgivable), but the spectacle he made of it, and the poor effort he showed in the playoffs against the Celtics.
2. I now have a new least-favorite team in the NBA, and yes, the Heat have eclipsed the Lakers. I think LeBron and Bosh are glory-hogging idiots, and Wade is only a level below them in that department. I may not hope for their eternal destruction, but I will hope for lots of disappointment for the Miami Heat.
3. There are no guarantees of NBA championships, even with LeFraud, Bosh and Wade on the roster. Are they the 2011 Eastern Conference favorites? Today, no. I need to see the rest of that roster. But likely Riley will work some magic and get a decent team together. But Boston is still pretty good, and Orlando is much deeper than Miami will be.

What I Believe

1. LeBron should have gone to Chicago. To me, it's all about legacy. If LeBron really wants to be remembered as one of the greatest ever, I think teaming with Derek Rose, Noah and Boozer in Chicago would have given him a contending team that would have been his team; there's no doubt to me that Miami is still Wade's team. And no, he should not have gone to the Knicks. They would have stunk for another 2-4 years. Easy decision, even if it is New York.
2. If LeBron, Bosh and Wade win a string of NBA titles (as I mentioned above, it's a tough feat even with all that talent), I think LeFraud's legacy is tainted by the way he left Cleveland and by the fact that he never won a title without Wade. Time will tell, but he might grow to detest Wade.

What We Don't Know

1. If this was all a foregone conclusion, and if all of the gameplaying by Wade, Bosh and LeBron was nothing more than media fodder, or as Simmons mentions in his column, a potential plot for a reality series, than shame on them. Totally pathetic.
2. How many (if any) title Miami will win. Like I wrote above, winning an NBA title isn't easy. Because of salary cap realities, Miami will not have a deep roster, and they will need health and some luck to win in 2011. After that? Who knows. A new collective bargaining agreement could make it easier or harder for them or easier. And a major injury to any three of them would stall the whole thing (and bring a evil smile to the entire city of Cleveland).
3. If LeBron is really one of the best players ever. I (among a host of others) have been touting this for years, that LeBron's statistical dominance makes him a once-in-a-generation type of player. But what kind? Will he be remembered like Bernard King? Oscar? Jordan? Magic? Bird? Malone? Winning titles in the NBA means more for a legacy than in any other of the US sports. Look at Robert Horry; good role player, who's status has sky-rocketed due to his being on so many championship squads. Know what we'd call the Horry equivalent in baseball? Lucky. But because basketball is such a team game, we give Horry extra credit for his teams' success, and we torch Karl Malone for his teams' playoff failures.

If someone reads this in 10 years (highly unlikely) or a column like Massarotti's, this may seem silly. LeBron may have 4 titles and have cemented himself as one of the greatest players of all time. The only people who may still care about any of this are Cavs fans and older fans who dislike him for the way he disrespected the game by making such a pathetic spectacle of himself. But I think it's more likely we've seen a likable hero transformed into a villain.

Pierce opens a window for the Celtics

During my pain-staking write-ups during the NBA Finals, I constantly talked about how the Celtics are really Rajon Rondo's team now. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and KG may not realize that, they may think they're still A-Level players, but reality played itself out on the 2010 playoff stage.

Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe agrees with me, and he writes that Paul Pierce opting out of his contract may give Danny Ainge an opportunity to re-build around Rondo sooner than he might have otherwise. A blessing in disguise, kind of like not trading Pierce a couple years back.

First off, I'm a huge Pierce fan. Without him, the Celtics do not win the 2008 title and do not make it to the 2010 Finals. Yes, he sputtered in Game 7 against Ron Artest, but he did put up a 19/6/3 in the playoffs on 44/40/83 shooting. Despite declining skills, he's still a very good player.

But I think it's likely he will be a good player somewhere else in 2010-11. I think Ainge is going to take a chance on a free agent. According to Mazz, he's got $25 million to play with. Is he going to sign one of the big guys like LeBron or D-Wade? No, that's not going to happen. But what about Joe Johnson (I'm not a fan)? Or Amar'e? Carlos Boozer? David Lee? The Celtics need to get younger and more athletic. All of those guys would qualify.

Of course, I have no idea how this will turn out. Could Pierce return? Sure. He's mentioned in the past about being a lifelong Celtic, but would he pass up the opportunity to play along side Nash in Phoenix (not likely), Wade in Miami (a little more likely), or maybe be a veteran presence in a place like Oklahoma City? Only he could say for sure.

I will miss Pierce if he leaves, and will look forward to the day his No. 34 jersey joins the others in the rafters. But it's time for the Rondo era to begin.

The World Needs Replay

Sunday was not a good day for FIFA. Too phantom goals changed the course of two elimination games, the Argentine goal against Mexico being the most egregious. The Mexican team became deflated, and what had been 25 minutes of griping soccer with two very determined teams, turned into a circus. Argentina scored its bogus goal and Los Tres Colores was left arguing fruitlessly with the FIFA officials. Several minutes later, a careless turnover and Mexico is down 2-0.

Now, I am claiming no Nostradamus powers. If the play had been called correctly, I have no idea who would have won. According to the Soccer Power Index rankings on ESPN.com, Argentina is the second best team in the world; Mexico is No. 12. The true talent level is probably greater, but certainly Mexico is capable of playing a good enough game to beat the blue and white on a given day.

I have stopped reading articles that argue against instant replay. It's just stupid. The job of the officials is to get the call correct, period. If we can fix that, we should. Here are my thoughts, by sport:

• Football. This one is so easy, so of course the NFL has missed it. It is not the responsibility of the coach to officiate a game; no more coach challenges. Just put another ref in the booth who makes the call. No more looking under the hood. He stops the game, he quickly reviews and makes a call.
• Basketball. Anything around scoring (two or three points) and out of bounds plays should be reviewable. Again, a separate replay official who does it on his own.
• Baseball. This is where replay should go to a new level. All balls and strikes should be called electronically, no more 'human factor.' All base calls should be reviewable, as well as home runs and foul balls. Separate replay official.
• Soccer. I already mentioned that FIFA needs another official (or two) on the field. They also need a replay official. It would be very limited, just to replay goals.

This isn't perfect, but it's closer to perfection, and isn't that the point? Don't we want to get as close as we can to the 'true' outcome? The less 'human' factor the better as far as I'm concerned.

Celtics-Lakers: Boston falls short

As I wrote after Game 6, I thought Artest and Odom were the keys for the Lakers. Well, Odom was largely invisible, but Artest shined with his best overall game of the series. With Kobe being double-teamed and forcing shots, and Gasol struggling at time on the offensive end, Artest delivered 20 points. He also added 5 steals, and played the best defense against Paul Pierce he'd played in the seven games. He played like the Artest of old.

Gasol, though sometimes shaky on the offensive end and playing a little matador defense on KG, rebounded like a man possessed. Eighteen boards, including 9 offensive.

Kobe played poorly. If the Celtics had won this game, he should have shouldered much of the blame. While getting double-teamed, he forced up too many bad shots. He did rebound well (15), but this was not his game.

KG is a shadow of the old KG monster. In a game without Kendrick Perkins, he had three rebounds. Three? This guy average double digit rebounds for ten straight seasons. He couldn't manage a big rebounding game for an NBA title?

Ray Allen didn't lose the game (it's more complicated than that), but 3-14 shooting is unbelievable. His defense on Kobe was very good in this series, but after game 2, his shooting touch disappeared, and that will haunt this team for a long time.

Rajon Rondo is awesome. His playoff line: 16-6-9. His Finals line: 13-6-8. When the Celtics run, they are nearly unstoppable. I think, with the right cast, Boston could be a contender for a long time with Rondo at the helm.

Doc Rivers is a good coach, but not a great one. Jeff Van Gundy had it right: Artest had proved during this series that Pierce could not go iso, but Rivers let Pierce do that too often. They needed more pick and rolls, more movement for Pierce off screens to get open looks from Artest's suffocating D. Artest was too good.

The officiating did not lose the Celtics this series, but it did get frustrating that Pierce shot 8 free throws in the final three games, while Kobe shot 31. The discrepancy is too much. Pierce drives a little less, but I've never seen anyone get so many calls on three point shots since Reggie Miller, and not one but Dwyane Wade gets as many calls going to the hoop.

I'm tired of floppers and whiners, and both teams provided shining moments of this annoying behavior. Just stop it, Rasheed, Pau, Fisher, Duncan, everyone! You occasionally do commit fouls and you sometimes tip the ball out of bounds. Shut it!

Finally, I would say congrats to the Lakers, but I wouln't mean it, so I won't.

Celtics-Lakers: One Game to Bind Them

Game 6 of this series stunk as a Celtics fan. The Lakers defense was very good, but there were opportunities. The second half opened with a series of missed layups and missed chances. So what will the deciding factors be for Game 7? What will decide the fate of the 2010 NBA Championship and the latest bragging rights in the historic Boston-LA feud? Glad you asked.

Odom and Artest. Neither player was spectacular in Game 6, but the key was they both contributed positively. The Lakers don't need either player to carry the team (Kobe and Gasol will do that), but they can't suck. The Celtics (on most nights) are two good for Kobe and Gasol to do it alone.

Injured big men. In the last two games Andrew Bynum has played largely ineffective minutes. It really hurt the Lakers in Game 5, but didn't make much of a difference in Game 6. Why? Because Kendrick Perkins left the game early, and Gasol was such a monster (17-13-9-3), that he filled the holes. But Bynum is the glue when Gasol is struggling, and he's the one post player the Celtics struggle to defend (when he's on). Perkins' injury could be devastating for the Celtics. He's one of only two plus post defenders (Rasheed being the other, and he's a nut job), with KG showing flashes of his old defensive brilliance only occasionally. Sheldon Williams, in 14 rust-filled minutes, showed why he's on the bench.

Where for art thou Rondo? After starting the playoffs brilliantly and staking his claim to best PG in the land, Rondo is slowing disappearing from the Finals stage. Yes, he threw up a decent line (10-5-6-2), but he was 5-15 shooting, including half a dozen missed layups (though the degree of difficulty was high). I know I keep harping on this, but something is off with Rondo. The Celtics need a monster Game 7 from him to get it done.

So those are the keys. Celtics in 7.

One more thing: Sasha Vujacic and Tony Allen are two of the most frustrating players alive. Yes, they both have their uses, but they both make 2-3 dumb plays a game that makes you wonder if this is there first pro game. Let me illustrate.

Sasha, toward the end of the 1st half, was trailing on a break. Kobe was being guarded on mismatch by Rondo (which happened a lot last night) and Odom was being guarded by Ray Allen. Two mismatches on the secondary break. So what does Sasha do? He jacks up a contested three. If I was a Lakers fan I would have been throwing my Jack sunglasses at the TV.

But Tony didn't want to be outdone. Later in the game he called for the ball and posted up. The only time Tony Allen should call for the ball in a post up situation is if one of his kids is guarding him at a family picnic. Even then, he'll stick brick the layup.

So I'm pretty sure if those two ever end up on the same team, the universe may explode.

Celtics-Lakers: A crazy 4th quarter

As I was discussing this series Saturday night with a friend, he said he thought Game 5 was the game of the series. I completely agreed, and the game did not disappoint. But instead of my usual 'thoughts' piece, here are my thoughts on the key plays of our crazy 4th quarter.

• 3:56 Rondo makes an amazing tip shot, Celtics 87-75. He leaps above two bigger Lakers to make this happen. I mention to my wife that if we were having a boy his name would need to be Rondo. She closes her eyes and forces herself to sleep.
• 2:55 Kobe makes two free throws, Celtics 87-78. Why is this important? Because Artest and the other Lakers forgot how to make free throws in this game.
• 2:06 Ray Allen misses a three. This was a really bad call. Ray missed the rim by inches, but the refs said it hit the rim, so Perkins' offensive rebound stood instead of a 24-second violation. The Celtics took time off the clock, but did not score.
• 1:30 Kobe makes three free throws, Celtics 87-82. R. Allen has fouled Kobe a couple of times shooting threes in this series. It looked pretty mild on the replay, but I don't play the officials for calling it.
• 0:46 KG loses a jumpball to Derek Fisher. Yeah, you read that right. I think it's safe to say that KG has lost a little explosiveness.
• 0:40 Pierce gets a defensive rebound off of missed Artest free throw. Really, Kobe came from the three point line and made a great play for the rebound, then Pierce swept in and stole it out of his hands. Kobe got pissed about this, but the replay showed it was a good physical play. Artest was 1-4 shooting free throws, all in the 4th quarter.
• 0:38 Boston calls timeout. After the rebound, Pierce was having trouble getting the ball up the court and wisely called timeout.
• 0:35 Rondo makes two point shot. That what's ESPN's play-by-play says, but let's break down the most important and amazing play of the playoffs. KG is inbounding (not sure why, maybe because of his height). He's having trouble getting it in. Pierce releases toward the hoop. KG lets lose a baseball pass that Pierce catches over his shoulder off balance, falling out of bounds. Rondo cuts to the basket and Pierce throws a perfect pass. Rondo layup. My description is lame compared to the actual play. My wife was asleep, and I had been quite most of the quarter, but I let out a 'yelp' of some sort after Rondo's layup, which woke her up. She thought a seagull had hit our window.
• 0:18 Fisher personal foul on Ray Allen. This was the icing. Rondo even got the ball on this play, but he was too fast for Artest and was able to give it up before anyone touched him. Of course, Allen drains the freebies.

Other thoughts:

• I've mentioned this before, and I might again: Artest is a shadow of his former shelf. He is doing a decent on Pierce in this series, but he can't guard any other key Boston player. He's too slow for Rondo, and Phil Jackson made the tactical error of putting Artest on Rondo in the closing minutes, which led to a layup and missed opportunity to foul a poor free throw shooter. And he can't guard small bigs anymore. Farmar or Brown should have been guarding Rondo in the final minutes.
• The officiating continues to stink. After three quarters of decent officiating, the zebras decided to put their fingerprints on the 4th quarter. Again, it's stinking both ways, so I'm claiming no conspiracy here, but man Stern needs to do something.

Celtics in 6.

Celtics-Lakers: Game 4 Thoughts

One thought is probably haunting the Lakers and their fans this morning: The Lakers were ultimately beat by the lineup of Rasheed-Big Baby-Tony Allen-Ray Allen-Little Nate. Read that again. That lineup played most of the 4th quarter. Rasheed and Nate even got T'd up. Didn't matter. By the time the rest of the starters returned, they were acting like a closer in baseball, not like a basketball assassin. A few thoughts about this lineup:

• I love the effort of Glen Davis. Even in the games where he gets blocked 837 times, he never gives up. Last night the effort was there, and so was the offense (18 points).
• Tony Allen is an awful offensive basketball player. He is once of the worst layup shooters in NBA history (though he can dunk), and he could not beat me in a shooting drill. But man can he play defense. He made Kobe work in the 4th quarter, and single-handedly disrupted the Lakers offense.
• I love Nate Robinson. The energy he brought to the court was amazing, and he delivered the offense. When the Celtics traded for him, this is what they wanted.
• I can't stand Rasheed Wallace. A tremendously skilled basketball player for sure, but his mental game is a disaster. Keep a lid on it dude.

Now, finally, some things the announcers aren't talking about, but should be:

• Last night Jeff Van Gundy criticized Rondo for gambling too much. Usually I think Van Gundy is spot on, but I think he's off on this one. If Rondo is 100%, Derek Fisher beats him off the dribble 1 out of 100 times. Right now he's doing it 4 out of 10 times. Rondo is gambling because his body is betraying him. They keep talking about how Bynum is playing through the pain (and he should be lauded for it, he's been a warrior), but I believe strongly Rondo is less than 80% physically.
• Many commentators, including the esteemed Bill Simmons, are hammering the officiating, which, much like Van Gundy and Mike Breen, I think is unfair to a certain extent. I think the rules stink, and are hard to call. Van Gundy talks about that a little with post play, but the list includes charges and a myriad of other things. Oh, and the officiating stinks.
• How come Nate Robinson gets T'd up for taunting Lamar Odom (which I thought was a little too quick of a whistle, but a fair call), but Artest makes a 'and-1' and starts walking toward Robinson shouting at him, but that's nothing. Is it proximity? That's stupid. They had set the precedent. Be consistent.
• They have talked about his offense a little, but Artest just seems off as well. I'm waiting for a monster 20-7-5 game from him. Not sure if we'll see it.
• Phil Jackson is a great coach (which they are talking about), but overrated (which they wouldn't dare talk about). But I am coming around. He won his first 9 NBA championships with two top tier Hall of Famers leading the pack, Jordan-Pippen in Chicago and Shaq-Kobe in LA. Last year's title was his first with one super-duper star, and some other very good players like Gasol. That elevated him in my eyes. If every player from the last 30 years were available and we were picking 10 teams, and then I had first choice of coaches, I would still pick Poppovich or Jerry Sloan. But for the first time ever I would think about Jackson. (And yes, I realize many of you, especially Lakers and Bulls fans, think this last paragraph was the dumbest thing I've ever written.)

Celtics-Lakers: Thoughts before Game 3

Similar to what I said after Game 1, Lakers fan need not to panic. The biggest factor in game 2 besides Rondo was Kobe's foul trouble. Two of his five fouls were a joke. As much as it advantaged the Celtics, it sucks for basketball. The Celtics suffered from this in game 1 with cheap fouls on frontliners (and this continued in game 2), so you have to sit the players that affect the game the most because of foul trouble. Lame.

I hate the foul-out rule. I think it's antiquated and ridiculous. Fouls count double against your team: once against the player, and once against your team fouls total. But why? Why do players foul out with usual infractions? This doesn't happen in football or hockey, team sports with player flow and stoppage. Why in basketball?

Here is my half-baked foul proposal for the NBA. Something similar could be adopted for NCAA basketball:

• There would be no limit to the individual number of fouls
• Once a player reaches 6 fouls, for each foul beginning with the 7th foul, the other team gets a shot and the ball.
• In OT, the +1 and the ball would start on the 9th individual foul
• Regarding technicals, on the first one, the other team gets a free throw (like now) and the offending player has to sit out for 5 minutes of game time (like a penalty box). On the second technical, the other team gets a shot, and the offending player gets a personal foul and gets 10 mins of penalty box time. The third technical would be an ejection and an automatic one-game suspension. Flagrant fouls would act the same, but would start at Technical Level II.
• Before a technical would becomes official, it must be ratified by another official on the floor.

This would keep star players on the floor, but still punish lots of fouls. One other possibility: only team fouls, and eliminate penalties for individual fouls all together.

Now, on to thoughts on the series:

• Rondo does not look very healthy to me. I know injuries have been mentioned, but he's not as explosive, and his defense is not as sharp as it has been.
• Speaking of Rondo, I love it, as Celtics fan, when Kobe guards him. While I wouldn't guard him tight at the 3-point line, I wouldn't sag into key either. It allows Rondo to set up Ray Allen easily. I think Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown are doing the best job defensively on Rondo.
• Does anyone on the Celtics besides Rondo want to rebound? He had 12 rebounds, and Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace combined off the bench for 14 more. Where are Perkins and KG? Grab a rebound please.
• Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol humiliated the Celtics interior players. They combined for 46 points and 13 blocks. I think if Kobe avoids foul trouble the Lakers win with those performances.
• Where is Ron Artest? And what did this impostor do with him?
• Lamar Odom has cemented his legacy: very good player who disappears against really good teams.

Celtics in 6.

Celtics-Lakers: Game 1 Thoughts

Nothing much to take away from game one except the following: the Lakers played better than the Celtics. It does not mean the Lakers will win the series (though it makes it easier). It does not mean the Celtics are in trouble (though it makes it harder). The Lakers played a really good game, and the Celtics played poorly.

Some other thoughts.

Kobe is the best (right now)
It pains me to write that. But if I to go back in time and did a school-yard pick 'em at the beginning of the playoffs and picked the best player, it would be Kobe. For years I've been saying LeBron is actually Kobe's superior because of the rebounding and physical presence, but not in the 2010 playoffs.

But let's not anoint him Jordan from a career prospective. During a portion of his prime, Kobe was an awful team player and led three teams (04-05, 05-06, 06-07) that weren't very good. Yes, his supporting cast was putrid, but LeBron has had a similar problem in Cleveland, and has had better seasons. So yes, Kobe is one of the best 20 players ever, but cool it on 'the' best ever talk. Not even close. Tim Duncan was even his superior as a contemporary.

Rondo's team
Most commentators think Rondo is now the best player on the Celtics. I completely agree, even though he has two major flaws in his game: he's a career 63% FT shooter (not good for a PG) and he's a below average outside shooter (likely related difficulties). I think both are solvable. He's only 23.

But the biggest problem for Rondo is his current team. He needs a bunch of runners, a Suns-style team, to best utilize his talents and also to minimize his weaknesses. The problem is only one current player really fits: Ray Allen. Kevin Garnett in his prime would have been a great fit, but he's not that player anymore. Paul Pierce slows the game down. Glen Davis isn't too bad, Tony Allen can't make a layup to save his mother, and Perkins is too slow. Rasheed Wallace is an idiot.

Win or lose in 2010, Danny Ainge needs to start looking for players to compliment Rondo. The current roster limits what he can do.

Fake teams of the NBA

There are several pretender teams in the NBA; I call them 'fake' teams. They hum during the regular season and wilt in the playoffs due to a combination of several factors:

• Chemistry. I don't mean whether they go out to dinner together, but whether they play well together in tight, close situations on defense and offense.
• Alpha dogs. They need 2-3 players that can take a game over, that have the Michael Jordan competitive gene. If you don't have a couple of alphas, you are a pretender.
• Bad coaches. Coaches who don't get playoff basketball and can't make series adjustments can turn a 'real' team into a 'fake' team very quickly.

The poster team for this is the Dallas Mavericks, who consistently win a lot of regular season games, but besides a run to the Finals in 2006, have delivered some of the greatest playoff stinkers of my lifetime.

There were two fake teams in this year's Eastern Conference playoffs. Let's discuss.

Cleveland
First off, it's impossible to develop chemistry when you're only offensive play in a tight game is a clear-out for LeBron. Mike Brown coaches good defense, but I think Naismith himself had more inventive offensive schemes.

This is going to come as a shock, but I'm not sure LeBron has the Jordan competitive gene. I've seen glimpses, but can you imagine even young Jordan going out like that? But LeBron's performance is almost besides the point. Hurt or tentative, no one else on Cleveland's current roster is a No. 2 or No. 3 for a championship caliber team. Actually, I don't think it's even close. That roster was fool's gold all year, and I even bought into that they were LeBron's best team. (Like that's even an accomplishment of any sort.)

Finally, coaching. I already picked on Brown in the first paragraph. He is not an awful coach, because he does something very well: coach defense. He helped turn LeBron from a poor defender into an above-average one, and has installed a very good team defense system. But he is in love with size, can't exploit match-ups, and lacks offensive creativity. Swap him out for Jerry Sloan, and the Cavs do not lose to the Celtics.

Orlando
I know, you think I'm overreacting to one loss. The Magic cruised through the first two rounds without a scratch. But they beat Charlotte and Atlanta, two terrible teams. No one should have been handing them a trophy yet.

How is their chemistry? On defense, I think it's very good. They center everything around Dwight Howard, and his presence helps them play good team defense. On offense, not so much. They run the offense through Howard, which is not really a great playoff option, especially when Howard might be the third or fourth best offensive option on his team. And Jameer Nelson is a PG who doesn't really get what a PG should do: make his teammates better.

Related to that is the alpha dog thing. Howard is absolutely an alpha on defense -- one of the best players in the league at changing the game on the defensive side of the floor. But he is offensively limited. Yes, there have been dominant offensive players who stayed within the paint. But they were dominant in that area. It's not that Howard is awful, but he's not dominant.

So that leaves the rest of Orlando's roster. Can you really win a championship with Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis as Howard's sidekicks? Man, I would not want to put my faith in the continual playoff under-performer Carter and Lewis, a guy who's shot less than 44% from the field for two straight seasons. Would I be comfortable with one of those guys as No. 3? Yes. But they need someone else. The perfect compliment to Howard would be Dwayne Wade, but that's not going to happen.

I think the Orlando brass was fooled by last season's run to the Finals, and thought the Vince trade would put them over the top. 'Hey, we made it to the NBA Finals with Hedo Tukoglu as our third best player. Get Vince and we're golden!' The problem is Vince is only an upgrade over Hedo 08-09 in name only. And Vince can't guard Paul Pierce to save his life.

As far as coaching goes, I like Stan Van Gundy. I think he's doing a good job with hand he's been dealt, and he made adjustments in the second half of Game 1 that almost created a monumental comeback. But I hope he's not too stubborn and doesn't continue to run his offense through Dwight. The offense should start on the perimeter with Howard as a second option. Actually, check that. I hope he is that stubborn.

Why the Celtics Could Win a Championship
That sentence seemed so improbable a month ago, that I would have laughed at anyone for uttering it. But it feels very probably now. What has happened?

First off, this is now Rajon Rondo's team. The offense and defense really begin and end with him. He is blossoming into a superstar, and is now in the discussion for best PG in the league honors, with such luminaries as Nash, Williams and Paul.

KG is back, not all the way, but to the point that he's a factor on both ends of the floor and is hitting key shots. Ray Allen is rejuvenated to the point that you feel like he's a better version of the old clutch Reggie Miller. And Paul Pierce is playing a complete game, not the vintage Pierce who outdueled LeBron in 2008, but a strong player who is fitting nicely into his role as sometime crunchtime scorer and boxscore filler.

Do I think they will win another title? No. I think they beat Orlando in 6, but then are beat by the Lakers-Suns winner. But this is a veteran team that on given night might have the best player on the floor (Rondo), so it would be foolish at this point to rule them out.

Thoughts before Game 6

After Boston's Game 3 loss to Cleveland, I thought the Celtics were done. The Cavs had the best player on the planet, and enough of a supporting cast to counter a limited, aging Celtics team. It's not that I had lost all faith, but I thought the Celtics had blown a big chance after stealing Game 2 in Cleveland.

And then LeBron laid one of the biggest eggs in playoff history. 15-7-6 is a good line for a complimentary player, but not for a super-duper star in a key playoff contest. The game's significance in LeBron's career has been covered ad-nauseum in other places, so I will leave it alone. But I will say this: the dude is only 25, so let's not get too carried away calling this a defining moment in LeBron's career. The series isn't even done yet.

What does this mean for the Celtics? It seems like KG has been rejuvenated to a certain extent, playing a role using the considerable skills he still has (even if it's not what he used to be).

One thing is clear: this is Rondo's team now. He is the best Celtics player on both ends of the floor, disrupting on defense and fueling the offense. Even when the Celtics were clicking in the first half of Game 5 without Rondo playing a major role, you knew he would have to get involved to get the Celtics past the Cavs. And he did in the second half, making Mo Williams looks foolish, and exposing some of LeBron's defensive weaknesses.

And on top of that, Glen Perkins showed again why he's good to have around: he's a good clutch scorer who provides a ton of energy. Kind of like the anti-Rasheed, who sucks energy out of the Celtics almost every time he steps on the floor. Oh how I despise Rasheed.

If the Celtics finish off the Cavs in Game 6, I'm not sure what it means. It will be tragic for Cleveland sports fans, and it may not mean much to Boston if the Celtics get thumped by the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals. It feels like Cleveland has everything to lose over the next couple of days, while the Celtics are trying to over-achieve.

And I think the Celtics will win tonight on Boston. I think Rondo will light it up, and Pierce will have his best games of the playoffs. I think the Cavs have played to the strengths of the Celtics, and that the LeBron era in Cleveland very well may end in complete disappointment.

Celtics miss a big chance

Last night was a depressing sports night. The Yanks came into town and demolished the Sox, the Bruins lost in OT to the Flyers with a chance to sweep the series and get some much-needed rest, and the Celtics were routed by Cavs at home with a chance to go up 2-1 and put all the pressure on Cleveland. Instead the pressure shifts back to the boys in green.

The Celtics debacle was particularly depressing. The defense was atrocious. Yes, LeBron James was unbelievable, even when the defense was good. He had one of those nights where it probably didn't matter.

But look at the other Cleveland players from last night: Atwan went wild (20-12), Shaq was effective, and basically each player got the shots he wanted. Look at the Cleveland shot chart. It was like a lay-up line.

I was cautiously optimistic after game 2. Looked like LeBron was hurt, the Celtics D was humming, and Rondo was playing on a different level than everyone else on the court. Now I'm hoping the Celtics can just win tomorrow and not face the edge of elimination.

March Madness Thoughts

I don't watch a lot of college basketball anymore. Beginning 2005, I started watching more NBA. I was intrigued by the new generation of players: LeBron, Carmelo, Wade. NBA basketball was fun again, and the playoffs were intriguing. This waxing of the NBA led to a waning of NCAA basketball.

Don't get me wrong. I still devoured March Madness, the best tournament in sports (closely followed by the NHL playoffs). But I watched a lot fewer games. And my two teams (BYU and Purdue) weren't nationally relevant at the time.

This all crested with the Celtics winning the 2008 NBA title. My favorite team was relevant again (if only for two seasons), and the playoffs were awesome. My NBA time investment was paying off.

This year has been different. I can hardly watch the Celtics; Rasheed Wallace is a disgrace, and watching KG is almost painful now. And the team is irrelevant again, an aging former champ who no longer has the power to play with the big boys, an old team that's falling quickly.

And my college teams were good. Purdue has become a nationally relevant team, and BYU is a fun mid-conference team. So I followed both teams this season, but I didn't watch a lot besides that. So my thoughts on the tournament are going to be confined to my two teams.

Purdue
Before Hummel went down with his gruesome knee injury, I gave the Boilermakers a decent shot at making the Final Four. They were a complete team, with three players that could fill up the basket in different ways. And their defense was solid.

Now they're mediocre, and will likely not make the Sweet 16. That is a big shame. Maybe their terrible showing in the Big Ten tournament against Minnesota will galvanize the team and make them stronger. I think it just showed that they are not the same team without Hummel. Tournament prediction: Loss to Texas A&M in round of 32.

BYU
Early in the season, I had higher hopes for the Cougars. A good showing outside of conference, and a solid rotation with an electric scorer. Though two loses to New Mexico made them conference second class going into the tournament. Still, going into the tourney, they had a shot at a 4-seed, especially if they beat New Mexico in the championship.

But a loss to UNLV on the a 'nuetral' Las Vegas court ended that. A 7-seed means a second-round match-up against Kansas State, instead of squaring off against a Butler, Purdue, Texas A&M -- a team they could have a good shot at beating and making a Sweat 16 run. So despite one of the best BYU teams of the past 20 years, it looks like another tournament disappointment. Tournament prediction: Loss to Kansas State in round of 32.

NBA: All-Star Thoughts

If you like the NBA, like Bill Simmons, or just like to listen to David Stern pontificate, you should really listen to the Bill Simmons' podcast interview with Stern.

A couple pre-All-Star festivities thoughts:
· Kevin Durant is a 21-year-old monster and is making the Oden vs. Durant draft discussion look pretty silly in retrospect. He’s putting up a 30-7-3 season for a likely playoff team.
· David Stern is the best commissioner is sports. Period. Of course, the competition isn’t really that great, but still.
· I’m very worried about the Celtics. If everyone is healthy, they could come out of the East. But I don’t think everyone will be. Too many miles on Garnett and Pierce, and a sub-par supporting cast.
· Are the Cavs for real? Well, I know LeBron’s for real (30-7-8), but the rest of the squad? Is Varejo really out-rebounding Shaq? Is Mo Williams a legitimate No. 2? Lots of questions.
· Vince Carter is the new Stephon Marbury. Good on baby, bad for your team.

Don't want to be like Mike

A friend of mine once said that the differences between Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant was: 1) MJ was a better player; and 2) MJ was better as portraying himself as lovable to his adoring public.

I disagreed with my friend at the time, claiming that MJ was a nicer guy and a better teammate, though not an example for human behavior in either of those areas. After watching MJ's Hall of Fame induction speech, I've changed my mind. The only question now is whether MJ is a bigger jerk than Kobe, just that much more talented and a better actor (who also was never accused of rape).

MJ came off in the speech as a bitter, tired aging man who dislikes everyone. As Rick Reilly points out, he dissed anyone who might personally care about him, including his kids and family.

So it leads me to one of three conclusions: 1) He's always been a jerk; 2) He became a jerk over time; and 3) He's not really a jerk, his speech just made him sound like one. I believe it's somewhere between No. 1 and No. 2. There are plenty of stories about his demanding behavior as a teammate, and we know he's a compulsive gambler. Most of what I've read about the man points to a conceeded jerk, and his speech reinforced that.

I don't know if that makes him a bad teammate or not. But in retrospect, he certainly looked like one by how he spoke.

But I can say this for sure: He was a total jerk in his speech, and showed no class, especially compared to David Robinson. Maybe we all want to be like Mike, but we'd rather have our kids grow up to be like David.

Celtics Year-in-Review

I recently posted on my Facebook page that I was proud of the Celtics this year. I was then ridiculed for that opinion, that the Celtics are only about championships and that making the final 8 is mediocrity that should not be celebrated.

Man are Boston fans starting to sound like Yankees fans. I really enjoyed this Celtics team. As much as last year? No, but once KG went down, I knew Boston’s chance at a repeat was very near zero percent. The LeBrons were just too dangerous, and Orlando was emerging. Was game 7 of the Magic series disappointing? Of course it was, but the season was an overall success in my opinion, regardless of my taunters.

So here’s my ode to the Celtic players, one-by-one.

KG. He lost a little luster with his punkish behavior on the bench and not sitting with the team in Game 1 of the Chicago series. Come on dude. I know you’re crazy competitive, but what if Scalabrine had wanted to sit in the locker room? We would have booed him. Man-up, dude.

The Truth. His tank was empty by the end of the Orlando series, but man is he fun to watch. He carried the team into the playoffs and teamed with Ray to take down the feisty Bulls.

Ray. Shooters are always hit and miss, and because he was a little gimpy in the Orlando series, J.J. Reddick was able to guard him. Ouch. Still, his 51-point game and all those game-winning/tying shots will stick in my memory for a long time.

Rondo. He has morphed into an elite point guard. He’s now my favorite Celtic to watch, and even after the Old Three retire, I’m optimistic about the future.

Perkins. He’s another reason why I’m optimistic. Is Dwight Howard really an elite player? I don’t think so, not after watching him get pushed around by Perkins. Tim Duncan in his prime eats Perkins alive. What I really want to see less of from Perkins next year is his European-style whining.

Big Baby. He parlayed a decent playoff run into a free agent contract. I’m not a Big Baby fan. He’s soft on defense and rebounding, and he thinks he can get shots off against 7-footers, and usually gets blocked. He can get hot offensively, but he’s very expendable.

Leon Powe. I hope Powe comes back. He’s a very good rebounder, and he’s really maturing on both ends of the floor. But his talents are replaceable.

Eddie House. I even named my fantasy team after him (creatively Eddie’s House). I’m split with him. He provides a good offensive spark, but man he’s a waste on the defensive end. As long as they have a decent back-up PG, I’d be fine with him being liquid nitrogen off the bench.

Tony Allen. No reason to spend much time here: He ticks me off every time he’s on the floor.
Scalabrine. I actually like his game. I think he’s a good complement to our power big guys as a shooter. He’s soft defensively and on the boards, but he can help the second unit spread the floor, and I think he works well with Rando. I just never want to see him playing crunch-time minutes every again. Ever.

Starbury. What a disaster. He showed some flourishes of his previous offensive talents, but he’s a defensive liability, and he no longer creates for others like he used to. Good luck in Europe buddy.

Mikki Moore. He’s one of the better rebounders on the team, but two major problems: He has some other defensive shortcomings, and he average more than 7 fouls per 36 minutes. Yikes. Only good in the 10-12 spot on a team, and Doc showed how little confidence he has in the guy playing him only 6.6 minutes per game in the playoffs.

Thoughts on the Finals (through Game 2)
I think Orlando’s chances of winning the NBA title bounced away with Courtney Lee’s missed alley-oop at the end of regulation of Game 2. And though Turkoglu is doing a decent job on Kobe, the defense has trouble dealing with Gasol and Kobe at the same time.

I think the Lakers wrap this up in 5 or 6. Orlando had a good run, but the Lakers dynamic duo is just too much for them to handle.

NBA Playoff Preview

The NBA Playoffs are upon us, and to me this is even more exciting than March Madness, for several reasons:

• It last longer
• NBA talent is the best in the world
• LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Pierce, and a few others have made the NBA playoffs over the past 3-5 seasons as exciting as any stretch during my lifetime
• I root for a team that's relevant

So without further pontificating, here's the NBA playoff preview. I'm going to rely heavily on John Hollinger's team stats on ESPN.com. I'm also pulling stuff from 82games.com and Basketball-Reference.com.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland vs. Detroit
According to Hollinger, the Cavs have the 4th best offense and the 3rd best defense, a killer combination. The Pistons are a fairly weak offensive team (21st) and middle of the road defensive team (16th). Match-ups are bad for the Pistons, and Tayshaun has shown he can't contain LeBron, and no one on the Pistons roster can match the energy of Varejao. And if you look at win shares or Roland Rating, the Pistons don't have a singular regular who is more valuable than Ilgauskus, Varejao and Mo Williams. In other words: Pure Cleveland domination. Prediction: Cavs in 4.

Boston vs. Chicago
This would have been much easier to call if KG was healthy. Still, the trio of Pierce/Allen/Rondo is better than anything Chicago can throw out there. The key match-up in the series is Rondo vs. Derrick Rose. If Rondo controls Rose, this series could get very short. Prediction: Boston in 6.

Orlando v. Philadelphia
This is where things get a little more interesting in the East. Orlando is the 8th best offensive team and top defensive team, so this seems like a no brainer, as the Sixers barely outscored their opponents over the season. But I like Andre Miller to carve up Orlando (relatively speaking) and I'm not sold on Dwight 'Superman' Howard as a playoff performer yet. Still, Orlando's firepower will be too much. Prediction: Orlando in 6.

Atlanta vs. Miami
Two words for you: Dwayne Wade. Throw out most of the stats. Neither team is dominant on either end of the floor, and when a team is evenly matched like this, I go with the best player. Prediction: Miami in 6.

Second Round
Cleveland over Miami in a heart-stopping 7-game series
Boston over Orlando, even without KG, in 7 games

Eastern Conference Championship
The LeBrons march past the KG-less Celtics in 5 games

Western Conference
Lakers vs. Utah
As much as I like Deron Williams and the Jazz, they cannot compete with the firepower of the Lakers. On a side note, according to Basketball-Reference.com, Gasol was more valuable than Kobe this year (Win Shares, scroll to the bottom of the page). Most other measures give Kobe a slight edge (including Hollinger's PER). Is the gap between Gasol and Kobe not that big, or are the numbers just not measuring all that happens on the court? Interesting topic. Discuss. Prediction: Lakers in 5.

Denver vs. New Orleans
According to Hollinger's aforementioned PER ranking, Carmelo is the 33rd best player in the league, behind the likes of Vince Carter and Leandro Barbosa. This smells to me like the best opening round series, and an upset special. Yes, the Hornets are a little thin behind Chris Paul, but they have CP3 and Denver doesn't. Prediction: Hornets in 7.

San Antonio vs. Dallas
The Spurs are still a very good defensive team, but no longer among the elite. But Duncan is still a top 10 player (though fading) and they have the weapons to handle the Mavs. I would have liked them a lot more if Manu was still playing, but the Spurs are still very dangerous. Prediction: Spurs in 6.

Portland vs. Houston
This should be an awesome series. Tracy McGrady has proven he is not an NBA difference-maker. You could make the argument that, when healthy, he's the 3rd or 4th best player on the Rockets. Good riddance. On the other side, the Blazers are loaded, with seven really good players. They are also opposites. Portland is one of the better offensive teams in the league, while the Rockets are defensive team. I'll take the deeper team with the best player in the series (Brandon Roy). Prediction: Portland in 6.

Western Conference Semi-finals
Lakers over Portland in a thrilling 7-game series
San Antonio over New Orleans in 6 games

Western Conference Finals
Lakers over San Antonio in 5 games. The Spurs will run out of gas.

NBA Finals
Cleveland over Lakers in 6 games. LeBron will be too much for LA.

NBA MVP Race

Bill Simmons does a better job than I could handicapping the NBA MVP race, but here are my thoughts with my top 3, which is similar to the Sports Guys picks.

4. Chris Paul -- What an awesome season (see the link above) and he's probably the best point guard of my lifetime. Not the MVP to me though. Maybe in another season, but not with the three below.

3. Kobe Bryant -- Kobe is tremendous on both ends of the floor, but as the Celtics proved last spring, you can shut this guy down with a concerted team defensive effort. But he makes his teammates better, and he's leading the best team in the West. In another season, he might be a clear MVP choice.

2. Dwayne Wade -- He is so much fun to watch. He is a complete offensive monster, and I would not want to face him in the playoffs. The Miami roster does not scream 5th seed, but there they are, likely to bounce the young, talented Hawks in the first round and battle the LeBrons in the second round. I don't know how long Wade's peak is going to last, but we're witnessing one of the greatest peaks in NBA history. Sit back and enjoy.

1. LeBron James -- This is a no brainer to me. Simmons details the stats above (and others have talked about the historic nature of his season), but here's a few points:

• The Cavs are 66-15 (39-1 at home!) with Mo Williams as the second best player. Think about that for a moment. Mo Williams? He's a good player, but not even a second-level elite NBA player. Has any player carried their team to such a lofty level with such a non-descript supporting cast? Jordan had Pippen. Bird had a bunch of great Hall of Fame type teammates, as did Magic. Kobe has played with Shaq and now Gasol. You could easily argue, using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, that this is the best season of any NBA player in the history of the league.
• His defense, though not reaching his offensive output, has reached an elite level. He used to be a liability, and now he might be all-NBA defense. He has asserted himself in a way that makes me think the Lakers will be much better off facing Boston or Orlando in the Finals, because LeBron's physical defense on Kobe would be a series difference-maker.

A few other random NBA thoughts:

• Isiah Thomas is being hired as a coach, and he's going to redonate his salary. How about donating that salary to the Knicks, or your CBA investors. I can't imagine this marriage with FIU will end well.
• I think Jerry Sloan might be the best NBA coach of my lifetime. Yes, Phil Jackson's success is undeniable. But he has cherry-picked good situations since landing the great Chicago job with Jordan, and Sloan has built three separate NBA contenders (two with the Stockton-to-Malone formula) and has adjusted to three different NBA eras almost seamlessly. Congrats to him and John Stockton both. Oh yeah, and that Jordan guy.

Random NBA Thoughts

I've watched quite a few NBA games recently (I don't usually start watching until after the All-Star break) and here are a few of my observations.

- Dwayne Wade is my favorite player to watch in the NBA. He does spectacular stuff each and every time he touches the ball. There's no question that he has recovered from his injuries, and I would not want to play Miami in the second round (I'm talking to you, Cleveland).

- Despite Dwayne's awesome season, LeBron is the MVP. Yes, LeBron's supporting cast is a little better, but it's not like he's playing with the '86 Celtics or anything. John Hollinger at ESPN thinks LeBron is having one of the best seasons ever.

- NBA officiating sucks compared to college, and I think it's because the rules are easier to interpret in the college ranks. No circle under the hoop, no strange defensive three seconds, a more pure game that's easier to officiate.

- What the heck happened to Jermaine O'Neal? I lived in Indiana when he was in his prime, and he was an awesome player to watch. It's sad that he's become a shell of his former self. Still a valuable player for the Heat, but not a force.

- I argued back in January that Starbury would be a bad fit for the Celtics. So far, I've been wrong. He's been a decent back-up PG, though I don't think the signing pushes the Celtics past the Cavs if I'm handicapping the playoffs today.

Celtics: The Sky is falling! Wait, the Celtics will repeat

As a former sports writer, I understand the game. In order to find something to write about, it needs to seem important. So what if the NBA regular season is not a direct corollary to post-season success? When the Celtics dropped four straight (including getting killed by LeBron & Co.), the skeptics appeared, saying the Celtics need to sign so-and-so, or Doc Rivers needs to wake up, or whatever.

Now, the Celtics have righted the ship. But was the ship ever really in disarray? No. The Celtics were unlikely to win 70 games. They're just not that deep, and the Eastern Division possibly has the league's best three teams (and then has a steep drop off). The current Celtics are not the '86 Celtics (who also played in a top-heavy conference), or the '96 Bulls. They are not super deep (though some bench players are really starting to improve), and Doc Rivers is not, in my humble opinion, a great coach, only a good one.

So Celtic fans, relax. Are we bound for another title? Well, winning the East is not going to be easy. Cleveland will be very scary. Orlando is solid. Detroit could be dangerous. And does anyone want to face Dwayne Wade and the Heat?

My prediction today: Celtics face San Antonio in the finals, Boston in 6.