Do you know what the Most Interesting Man in the World wears to bed? Josh Hamilton pajamas.
Chuck Norris has only cried once in his life. That was while watching Josh Hamilton hit during the 2008 All-Star Game Home Run Derby.
Jack Bauer has only truly feared for his life once. He stood in an empty alley, fully armed. And Josh Hamilton stood at the other end with just his bat.
After watching Josh Hamilton this season, I understand why Tampa Bay made him the No. 1 overall selection in the 1999 draft. He is a true all-tools talent. He's fast, he's powerful, he's graceful, and his baseball IQ is high. Very few baseball players have ever played the game with his supreme combination of talents.
We also all know the story. What should have been a Babe-like career was derailed by powerful drug and alcohol addictions, and injuries. Tampa Bay got so fed up with him they left him unprotected in the 2006 Rule 5 draft, and he was sent to the Reds for $100,000. Imagine that. One of the best athletes ever to put on a baseball uniform basically given away because of personal issues.
He broke through in 2007 with the Reds, amassing 337 PAs, a 292/368/554 line and 2.5 WAR. In a sense, he had arrived. Finally clean, Hamilton put together a very good partial season and established himself as a potentially legitimate major leaguer. And then the Reds traded him to the Texas Rangers for Edison Volquez and Danny Herrera. The Reds were selling high.
2008 was the dream. Hamilton made the All-Star team, finishing first among American League outfielders. In the first round of the Home Run Derby, he hit 28 home runs, though he lost the contest to Minnesota's Justin Morneau. He finished the season with a 304/371/540 line and 3.8 WAR. He was a legitimate All-Star.
If 2008 was the dream, 2009 was the nightmare. Hamilton was dogged by injuries and only had 365 PAs. His 268/315/426 line was a shadow of his previous two seasons. And his personal life was again in the spotlight, as it became public that he slipped back into alcohol for at least one night.
This past weekend I was again amazed by Hamilton. At full strength again this season and with a couple years under his belt, Hamilton has become a force, a one-man wrecking crew. The play of the series was during Game 1 on Friday night. With Boston flamethrower Daniel Bard on the mound and the Rangers behind 9-8 in the bottom of the 8th, Hamilton doubled with two outs. Vlad Guerrero then hit a weak ground to second. Jed Lowrie made the play, but his throw to first pulled Mike Lowell off the bag.
Where was Hamilton? Almost to home, all the way from second. Lowell's reaction was a little slow, he turned and gunned it home, but the tag was too late. Hamilton had scored, and the Rangers had tied the game. Texas would go on to win the game in the 11th on a Nelson Cruz no-doubt bomb.
My brief description does the play no justice whatsoever. You can watch video highlights of Hamilton's big night at MLB.com.
Do you know who's been the most valuable player in the AL this season? Josh Hamilton, and it's not particularly close. Is this an aberration? Is this his true talent? Is this the Hamilton we've been missing? Jack Moore at Fangraphs pointed out last weeks that Hamilton's BABIP is a little high (and likely unsustainable), but even so, he's mashing.
I hated watching Hamilton decimate the Red Sox this weekend, further dampening the team's postseason dreams. But he is currently my favorite player to watch, joining a rarefied group that includes Rickey Henderson, young Barry Bonds, and young Griffey Jr. Unfortunately his career won't likely hit the true legend status of any of those Hall of Famers (or should be HOFers).
But however long he players, and wherever his career lands, Josh Hamilton has arrived and is the most exciting player in the bigs.
Showing posts with label mlb. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mlb. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Red Sox Storylines: Aug. 5
Here are some recent Red Sox major storylines and what I think about them.
The Sox are doomed and won't make the playoffs.
I covered what I thought about the Boston's playoff chances a couple weeks ago. What has happened since then? Not a lot, really. Yes, there was the exciting trading deadline where the Yankees improved themselves by importing Lance Berkman, who used to be good. Their playoff chances are about the same as they were -- not very good, but still possible. The killer blow may have been Youk's injury, especially if he's really out for a month. He's the best hitter on the team, and anytime there's more ABs for Kevin Cash, that's not a good thing. But New York is old, Tampa is vulnerable, and Boston has a good combination of pitching, defense and offense that could make a sustained run. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Certainly.
Jacoby Ellsbury is a bad teammate
Dan Shaugnessy of the Boston Globe is a master agitator, and he did it again this week but calling out Jacoby Ellsbury, questioning his heart, grit and whether he's a good teammate. The best part? He intimates that Ellsbury's teammates think he's a problem, but without any sources whatsoever. Comments by Kevin Youkilis have been overblown, and Youk even addressed those in a column on ESPNBoston.com.
Does Youk think Ellsbury is a woos? Maybe. Was there some miscommunication between management and Ellsbury about his rehab? From outside, it looks like it. But so what? This really seems like a media creation to me. Shaugnessy can't even find anyone to complain about Ellsbury off the record, so he's left to his own conjecture and smearing the reputation of a very good player who's been very good for the Sox. Let's give the guy the benefit of the doubt until we actually have something substantial to talk about.
The Red Sox should have done something more at the deadline
Really? What exactly? I mentioned previously that the biggest need was the bullpen. The starting 5 is good (especially with Beckett returning to form), the lineup is deep (before Youk's injury), and the defense is good. The Sox needed a bullpen arm and maybe a better hitting back-up outfielder to take the place of Eric Patterson, though I think those options existed internally with Ryan Kalish and Daniel Nava. And they needed healthy players.
But the price for good bullpen help was high, so Theo & Co. passed. I don't blame them. They can use some young arms (like Felix Doubront and Michael Bowden) who likely will be as effective as some mediocre National League reliever. And with about a 1-in-5 chance of making the playoffs, sending off a useful minor leaguer for a replacement-level reliever is bad management.
And let's be clear: I don't think they were deeply in on any big names. Adam Dunn? Where would he have played? His natural position is DH, and we have one of those. Lance Berkman? Please. He would have been an upgrade over Lowell, but before Youk's injury, we couldn't find a place for Lowell on the roster. And none of the 'big-name' starters were anyone the Sox should have mortgaged the future over.
What's up with all the injuries?
Randomness. It just happens. Fill in a cliche. There's really nothing to explain it, unless you believe Adrian Beltre was intentionally trying to break the ribs of Jeremy Hermida and Ellsbury. Would the Sox be in the thick of it if Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Beckett, Youkilis, Varitek, Mike Cameron, and Pedroia, had been healthy all season? Likely, but they weren't. The key thing to remember is that Theo built a good team that had a high chance of contending. Things have not worked out as planned, which happens.
Red Sox fans have stopped watching this boring team
Bill Simmons spent 1,653,345 words explaining why this team is boring. Ratings are down in Boston. Tickets are easier to come by. The reason? The team is boring.
I'll give you a simpler reason: the Sox are 6 games out of first place and Sox fans are spoiled. Since 2003, the Red Sox have only missed the playoffs once and have won two World Series. In each of those playoff seasons, Boston has won at least 95 games. Does this team lack the name power of Manny and Big Papi? Maybe, but with gritty players like Youk and Pedroia (and Boston loves players like that), and new fan favorites like Beltre and Nava and Martinez, I don't buy the boring tag. I just think the team is underachieving compared to the recent past, and Boston fans are spoiled, like Atlanta Braves fans used to be, or Yankees fans have been for a long time.
Mark my words: if the Sox go on a 12-2 run and get within 2-3 games, the team suddenly won't look very 'boring' anymore, and the roster will be about the same.
The Sox are doomed and won't make the playoffs.
I covered what I thought about the Boston's playoff chances a couple weeks ago. What has happened since then? Not a lot, really. Yes, there was the exciting trading deadline where the Yankees improved themselves by importing Lance Berkman, who used to be good. Their playoff chances are about the same as they were -- not very good, but still possible. The killer blow may have been Youk's injury, especially if he's really out for a month. He's the best hitter on the team, and anytime there's more ABs for Kevin Cash, that's not a good thing. But New York is old, Tampa is vulnerable, and Boston has a good combination of pitching, defense and offense that could make a sustained run. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Certainly.
Jacoby Ellsbury is a bad teammate
Dan Shaugnessy of the Boston Globe is a master agitator, and he did it again this week but calling out Jacoby Ellsbury, questioning his heart, grit and whether he's a good teammate. The best part? He intimates that Ellsbury's teammates think he's a problem, but without any sources whatsoever. Comments by Kevin Youkilis have been overblown, and Youk even addressed those in a column on ESPNBoston.com.
Does Youk think Ellsbury is a woos? Maybe. Was there some miscommunication between management and Ellsbury about his rehab? From outside, it looks like it. But so what? This really seems like a media creation to me. Shaugnessy can't even find anyone to complain about Ellsbury off the record, so he's left to his own conjecture and smearing the reputation of a very good player who's been very good for the Sox. Let's give the guy the benefit of the doubt until we actually have something substantial to talk about.
The Red Sox should have done something more at the deadline
Really? What exactly? I mentioned previously that the biggest need was the bullpen. The starting 5 is good (especially with Beckett returning to form), the lineup is deep (before Youk's injury), and the defense is good. The Sox needed a bullpen arm and maybe a better hitting back-up outfielder to take the place of Eric Patterson, though I think those options existed internally with Ryan Kalish and Daniel Nava. And they needed healthy players.
But the price for good bullpen help was high, so Theo & Co. passed. I don't blame them. They can use some young arms (like Felix Doubront and Michael Bowden) who likely will be as effective as some mediocre National League reliever. And with about a 1-in-5 chance of making the playoffs, sending off a useful minor leaguer for a replacement-level reliever is bad management.
And let's be clear: I don't think they were deeply in on any big names. Adam Dunn? Where would he have played? His natural position is DH, and we have one of those. Lance Berkman? Please. He would have been an upgrade over Lowell, but before Youk's injury, we couldn't find a place for Lowell on the roster. And none of the 'big-name' starters were anyone the Sox should have mortgaged the future over.
What's up with all the injuries?
Randomness. It just happens. Fill in a cliche. There's really nothing to explain it, unless you believe Adrian Beltre was intentionally trying to break the ribs of Jeremy Hermida and Ellsbury. Would the Sox be in the thick of it if Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Beckett, Youkilis, Varitek, Mike Cameron, and Pedroia, had been healthy all season? Likely, but they weren't. The key thing to remember is that Theo built a good team that had a high chance of contending. Things have not worked out as planned, which happens.
Red Sox fans have stopped watching this boring team
Bill Simmons spent 1,653,345 words explaining why this team is boring. Ratings are down in Boston. Tickets are easier to come by. The reason? The team is boring.
I'll give you a simpler reason: the Sox are 6 games out of first place and Sox fans are spoiled. Since 2003, the Red Sox have only missed the playoffs once and have won two World Series. In each of those playoff seasons, Boston has won at least 95 games. Does this team lack the name power of Manny and Big Papi? Maybe, but with gritty players like Youk and Pedroia (and Boston loves players like that), and new fan favorites like Beltre and Nava and Martinez, I don't buy the boring tag. I just think the team is underachieving compared to the recent past, and Boston fans are spoiled, like Atlanta Braves fans used to be, or Yankees fans have been for a long time.
Mark my words: if the Sox go on a 12-2 run and get within 2-3 games, the team suddenly won't look very 'boring' anymore, and the roster will be about the same.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
The Red Sox can still smell the playoffs
Before games are played on July 27, the Red Sox sit 8 games behind the division-leading Yankees and five games behind the wild card-leading Rays. Many prognosticators had Boston, New York and Tampa as the best three teams in the American League coming into 2010, and they haven't been too far off. Boston's 56 wins trails only New York, Tampa and surprising Texas.
But can the Red Sox make up ground and get past their division rivals and into the playoffs? To answer this question, I usually turn to the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus and the MLB Odds at Coolstandings.com. The other thing I do is use my brain.
BP gives Boston an almost 25% chance of making the playoffs, with almost 20 of that coming from a wild card berth. For comparison, New York has a 91% chance. Coolstandings is a little more skeptical, giving Boston a 20% chance, with 16 of that being in the wild card. So looking at these numbers, and just using a little reason, Boston's biggest chance is making up the 5 games between it and Tampa.
But can they do that? Yes, they can. Many of Boston's walking wounded are returning, with Victor Martinez following Josh Beckett and Clay Buchhloz last night. Dustin Perdoia is likely to follow, and Jacoby Ellsbury has started rehabbing. This is a team that has seen Jeremy Hermida's .632 OPS see the most time in LF, followed by Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald. Ellsbury is very unlikely to be worse.
But the biggest problem is the bullpen. They have the worst bullpen in the AL by FIP and 3rd worst by xFIP. I don't really care if Okajima talks to reporters or not, but getting people out would be nice.
So instead of chasing Jayson Werth or an NL pitcher who might not be an upgrade over anything we have, let's go get some less expensive bullpen arms for the stretch drive, even if we only have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Remember, that's 20 points higher than Baltimore.
But can the Red Sox make up ground and get past their division rivals and into the playoffs? To answer this question, I usually turn to the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus and the MLB Odds at Coolstandings.com. The other thing I do is use my brain.
BP gives Boston an almost 25% chance of making the playoffs, with almost 20 of that coming from a wild card berth. For comparison, New York has a 91% chance. Coolstandings is a little more skeptical, giving Boston a 20% chance, with 16 of that being in the wild card. So looking at these numbers, and just using a little reason, Boston's biggest chance is making up the 5 games between it and Tampa.
But can they do that? Yes, they can. Many of Boston's walking wounded are returning, with Victor Martinez following Josh Beckett and Clay Buchhloz last night. Dustin Perdoia is likely to follow, and Jacoby Ellsbury has started rehabbing. This is a team that has seen Jeremy Hermida's .632 OPS see the most time in LF, followed by Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald. Ellsbury is very unlikely to be worse.
But the biggest problem is the bullpen. They have the worst bullpen in the AL by FIP and 3rd worst by xFIP. I don't really care if Okajima talks to reporters or not, but getting people out would be nice.
So instead of chasing Jayson Werth or an NL pitcher who might not be an upgrade over anything we have, let's go get some less expensive bullpen arms for the stretch drive, even if we only have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Remember, that's 20 points higher than Baltimore.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
All-MLB Team: American League
You can check our yesterday's All-NL team, and also last year's team. On with the show!
C -- J. Mauer, Min (2.1, -1 293/368/424 345). This was actually pretty tough. Mauer is not as awesome as usual this year, and Carlos Santana, the remarkable Cleveland rookie, made me think about moving Mauer off the top of the heap. But I didn't. Honorable mention: C. Santana, Cle
1B -- J. Morneau, Min (5.0, 8.0 345/437/618 447). I hated knocking Youkilis off the perch, but Morneau is either having a career year, or he's tranformed into Pujols North. I couldn't pass on him. Honorable mentions: K. Youkilis, Bos; M. Cabrera, Det
2B -- R. Cano, NYY (4.4, 5.6 336/389/556 401). Cano has transformed from an overrated Yankee into one of the best players in baseball. He and Pedroia are really the two best second sackers in baseball, both in the same division. Honorable mention: Pedroia, Bos
3B -- E. Longoria, TB (3.7, 1.6 300/381/513 389). Longoria is the man, sitting on the peak waiting for someone to challenge him. Though Beltre has been very good for Boston, no one is Longoria. Honorable mention: A. Beltre, Bos
SS -- D. Jeter, NYY (1.8, -0.4 274/340/392 328). AL shortstop is not the glamour position it used to be. It pains me to leave Jeter in this position for another year, but he is who I would pick. Has he been the most valuable in 2010? No, Alex Gonzalez in Toronto has been more valuable (2.4 WAR). And Scutaro (Bos) and Pennington (Oak) have been as valuable. But I would still pick Jeter. (Someone shoot me.) Honorable mentions: A. Gonzalez, Tor; M. Scutaro, Bos; C. Pennington, Oak
LF -- C. Crawford, TB (4.7, 15.2 317/373/511 393). Josh Hamilton (Tex) is just as valuable this year, but Crawford's defense is tremendous, and Hamilton is up-and-down a little over time. So this wasn't easy, but Crawford's still the man. Honorable mention: J. Hamilton, Tex.
CF -- T. Hunter, LAA (2.9, 14.9 292/379/502 372). Hunter is having a bit of a career resurgence the past season and a half. He's flashing the leather, and his bat is more valuable than at any time in his career. When he signed the 5-year/$80 million deal with the Angels before the 2008 season, I thought he would be way overpaid by the end of the deal. Though that still may be true (who knows what his value will be in 2012), right now he's worth it. Honorable mentions: A. Rios, CWS; A. Jackson, Det
RF -- S. Choo, Cle (2.8, 2.1 286/390/475 382). I hate to unseat Ichiro, as he's been as valuable as Choo this season. And technically Swisher (NYY) has been a little more valuable (though we're splitting hairs). The truth is, this was a tough one, so I would take the power/youth of Choo over the defense/speed of Ichiro. Honorable mentions: Ichiro, Sea; N. Swisher, NYY
Starters
1. C. Lee, Sea/Tex (4.1 2.59 2.55); 2. F. Liriano, Min (4.5 3.76 2.16); 3. J. Lester, Bos (3.9 2.81 2.97); 4. Grienke, KC (2.8 3.67 3.53); 5. J. Weaver, LAA (3.5 3.16 3.08). Honorable mentions: F. Hernandez, Sea; J. Verlander, Det
Lee and Liriano are clearly the class of the AL this season; Lester is alone after them. After that, it was hard to chose. I think Grienke would thrive in Boston/New York/Anyplace but Kansas City, and Weaver has taken a great stride forward.
Relievers
1. M. Rivera, NYY (1.3 1.01 2.25); 2. M. Thorton, CWS (1.6 2.58 1.90); 3. Putz, CWS (1.2 1.50 2.10); 4. Balfour, TB (1.1 2.20 2.40); 5. F. Francisco, Tex (1.2 3.92 2.55). Honorable mentions: D. Oliver, Tex; D. Bard, Bos
I wrote earlier this year just how amazing Mariano is. The AL reliever corps are not as strong as their NL brethren, but it's a good group. Thorton and Putz have been awesome on Chicago's South Side, and Balfour continues his consistent, top-level performance.
C -- J. Mauer, Min (2.1, -1 293/368/424 345). This was actually pretty tough. Mauer is not as awesome as usual this year, and Carlos Santana, the remarkable Cleveland rookie, made me think about moving Mauer off the top of the heap. But I didn't. Honorable mention: C. Santana, Cle
1B -- J. Morneau, Min (5.0, 8.0 345/437/618 447). I hated knocking Youkilis off the perch, but Morneau is either having a career year, or he's tranformed into Pujols North. I couldn't pass on him. Honorable mentions: K. Youkilis, Bos; M. Cabrera, Det
2B -- R. Cano, NYY (4.4, 5.6 336/389/556 401). Cano has transformed from an overrated Yankee into one of the best players in baseball. He and Pedroia are really the two best second sackers in baseball, both in the same division. Honorable mention: Pedroia, Bos
3B -- E. Longoria, TB (3.7, 1.6 300/381/513 389). Longoria is the man, sitting on the peak waiting for someone to challenge him. Though Beltre has been very good for Boston, no one is Longoria. Honorable mention: A. Beltre, Bos
SS -- D. Jeter, NYY (1.8, -0.4 274/340/392 328). AL shortstop is not the glamour position it used to be. It pains me to leave Jeter in this position for another year, but he is who I would pick. Has he been the most valuable in 2010? No, Alex Gonzalez in Toronto has been more valuable (2.4 WAR). And Scutaro (Bos) and Pennington (Oak) have been as valuable. But I would still pick Jeter. (Someone shoot me.) Honorable mentions: A. Gonzalez, Tor; M. Scutaro, Bos; C. Pennington, Oak
LF -- C. Crawford, TB (4.7, 15.2 317/373/511 393). Josh Hamilton (Tex) is just as valuable this year, but Crawford's defense is tremendous, and Hamilton is up-and-down a little over time. So this wasn't easy, but Crawford's still the man. Honorable mention: J. Hamilton, Tex.
CF -- T. Hunter, LAA (2.9, 14.9 292/379/502 372). Hunter is having a bit of a career resurgence the past season and a half. He's flashing the leather, and his bat is more valuable than at any time in his career. When he signed the 5-year/$80 million deal with the Angels before the 2008 season, I thought he would be way overpaid by the end of the deal. Though that still may be true (who knows what his value will be in 2012), right now he's worth it. Honorable mentions: A. Rios, CWS; A. Jackson, Det
RF -- S. Choo, Cle (2.8, 2.1 286/390/475 382). I hate to unseat Ichiro, as he's been as valuable as Choo this season. And technically Swisher (NYY) has been a little more valuable (though we're splitting hairs). The truth is, this was a tough one, so I would take the power/youth of Choo over the defense/speed of Ichiro. Honorable mentions: Ichiro, Sea; N. Swisher, NYY
Starters
1. C. Lee, Sea/Tex (4.1 2.59 2.55); 2. F. Liriano, Min (4.5 3.76 2.16); 3. J. Lester, Bos (3.9 2.81 2.97); 4. Grienke, KC (2.8 3.67 3.53); 5. J. Weaver, LAA (3.5 3.16 3.08). Honorable mentions: F. Hernandez, Sea; J. Verlander, Det
Lee and Liriano are clearly the class of the AL this season; Lester is alone after them. After that, it was hard to chose. I think Grienke would thrive in Boston/New York/Anyplace but Kansas City, and Weaver has taken a great stride forward.
Relievers
1. M. Rivera, NYY (1.3 1.01 2.25); 2. M. Thorton, CWS (1.6 2.58 1.90); 3. Putz, CWS (1.2 1.50 2.10); 4. Balfour, TB (1.1 2.20 2.40); 5. F. Francisco, Tex (1.2 3.92 2.55). Honorable mentions: D. Oliver, Tex; D. Bard, Bos
I wrote earlier this year just how amazing Mariano is. The AL reliever corps are not as strong as their NL brethren, but it's a good group. Thorton and Putz have been awesome on Chicago's South Side, and Balfour continues his consistent, top-level performance.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
All-MLB Team: National League
Here's my second annual All-MLB team (here's last year's squad). I'm going to start with the NL.
Just like last year, I'm looking for the best players. If I had to win the pennant this year, who would I pick. I weighed 2010 performance heavily, and I also didn't unseat an incumbent from last year unless there was clearly a better choice.
And here's the format: A. Mangum, Team (WAR, Fielding AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA). All stats are from Fangraphs.com. If the names are in italics, the player is the incumbent.
All NL-Team
C -- B. McCann, Atl (2.7, 1 267/380/447 364). McCann is the class of the NL catchers, and he brings it with a powerful bat (though he's down a little this year). He's also passable behind the plate. Honorable mentions: M. Olivo, Col; G. Soto, ChC
1B -- A. Pujols, Stl (3.4, -1.1 308/416/576 412). Sometimes we might forget just how remarkable Pujols has been over his nine seasons coming into 2010. Joey Votto (Cin) has been more valuable this year(4.2 WAR), but I would take Pujols for the stretch drive (and next year too). Honorable mentions: J. Votto, Cin; A. Gonzalez, SD
2B -- M. Prado, Atl (3.2 1.1 325/367/484 368). If Chase Utley (Phi) wasn't hurt, I'd pick him, but he is, and Prado has been equally valuable this year. So Utley is unseated for a year. Honorable mentions: C. Utley, Phi; D. Uggla, Fla; B. Phillips, Cin
3B -- D. Wright, NYM (4.1, 3.3 314/392/532 396). This is one of the toughest calls in either league. Wright and Zimmerman (Was) are pretty much equals at this point, two dueling virtuosos at the hot corner. Wright has been slightly more valuable, so I kept him, but this is really a pick'em. Honorable mention: R. Zimmerman, Was
SS -- H. Ramirez, Fla (2.7, -6.1 301/381/485 378). There is no doubt that Ramirez is an offensive force, even if he's off his career wOBA number (393). But his fielding is suspect (despite good range and enough talent to be at least average), and apparently he's an attitude problem. I would have gladly unseated him, but if I wanted to win games between now and November, he's the guy. Honorable mention: S. Drew, Ari
LF -- M. Holliday, Stl (4.4, 9.2 309/388/536 399). Last year it was Manny, but he's been limited due to injury. So here comes Mr. Holliday, the $120 million man. He has delivered in the first year of his shiny new contract. And, really, he's the only awesome LF in the NL right now. Honorable mention: A. Torres, SF
CF -- A. Pagan, NYM (3.2, 12.5 306/362/466 366). With incumbent (and teammate) Carlos Beltran sidelined by injury, Pagan has filled in nicely. Technically Marlon Byrd has been more valuable (3.8 WAR), but I would rather have Pagan and his awesome fielding roaming center. Honorable mention: M Byrd, ChC
RF -- J. Upton, Ari (2.4, 5.7 269/354/460 360). Besides 3B, this was the toughest call in the NL. I really like Upton, but he's down this year. But besides the breakout of Heyward in Atlanta, the rest of the field is pretty comparable to Upton. And I wouldn't trust Corey Hart any farther than I can throw him -- which I couldn't at all (he's a bid dude). Honorable mentions: J. Heyward, Atl; C. Hart, Mil; R. Ludwick, Stl; J. Werth, Phi
Starting rotation (WAR, ERA, FIP)
1. J. Johnson, Fla (4.7, 1.62, 2.25); 2. R. Halladay, Phi (4.4, 2.40, 2.97); 3. Y. Gallardo, Mil (3.0, 2.58, 2.98); 4. U. Jiminez, Col (3.6, 2.38, 3.23); 5. A. Wainwright, Stl (3.6, 2.02, 3.05). Honorable mentions: T. Lincecum, SF; R. Oswalt, Hou; C. Kershaw, LAD
It was tough leaving Lincecum off the list, but the five are picked are awesome, and Lincecum is fading behind the pack. Johnson is likely the best starter in the league, and Halladay is a stud. Jiminez has come back to earth, but his stuff is still sick.
Relievers
1. J. Broxton, LAD (1.7, 3.15, 1.60); 2. S. Marshall, ChC (1.6, 1.88, 2.06); 3. Belisle, Col (1.6, 2.72, 2.45); 4. Bell, SD (1.4, 2.01, 2.06); 5. B. Wilson, SF (1.6, 1.98, 1.98). Honorable mentions: L. Nunez, Fla; B. Wagner, Atl; C. Marmol, ChC
Not a single holdover from last year, which basically tells you how mercurial relievers are. That being said, Broxton is awesome, and Bell and Wilson are studs.
Just like last year, I'm looking for the best players. If I had to win the pennant this year, who would I pick. I weighed 2010 performance heavily, and I also didn't unseat an incumbent from last year unless there was clearly a better choice.
And here's the format: A. Mangum, Team (WAR, Fielding AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA). All stats are from Fangraphs.com. If the names are in italics, the player is the incumbent.
All NL-Team
C -- B. McCann, Atl (2.7, 1 267/380/447 364). McCann is the class of the NL catchers, and he brings it with a powerful bat (though he's down a little this year). He's also passable behind the plate. Honorable mentions: M. Olivo, Col; G. Soto, ChC
1B -- A. Pujols, Stl (3.4, -1.1 308/416/576 412). Sometimes we might forget just how remarkable Pujols has been over his nine seasons coming into 2010. Joey Votto (Cin) has been more valuable this year(4.2 WAR), but I would take Pujols for the stretch drive (and next year too). Honorable mentions: J. Votto, Cin; A. Gonzalez, SD
2B -- M. Prado, Atl (3.2 1.1 325/367/484 368). If Chase Utley (Phi) wasn't hurt, I'd pick him, but he is, and Prado has been equally valuable this year. So Utley is unseated for a year. Honorable mentions: C. Utley, Phi; D. Uggla, Fla; B. Phillips, Cin
3B -- D. Wright, NYM (4.1, 3.3 314/392/532 396). This is one of the toughest calls in either league. Wright and Zimmerman (Was) are pretty much equals at this point, two dueling virtuosos at the hot corner. Wright has been slightly more valuable, so I kept him, but this is really a pick'em. Honorable mention: R. Zimmerman, Was
SS -- H. Ramirez, Fla (2.7, -6.1 301/381/485 378). There is no doubt that Ramirez is an offensive force, even if he's off his career wOBA number (393). But his fielding is suspect (despite good range and enough talent to be at least average), and apparently he's an attitude problem. I would have gladly unseated him, but if I wanted to win games between now and November, he's the guy. Honorable mention: S. Drew, Ari
LF -- M. Holliday, Stl (4.4, 9.2 309/388/536 399). Last year it was Manny, but he's been limited due to injury. So here comes Mr. Holliday, the $120 million man. He has delivered in the first year of his shiny new contract. And, really, he's the only awesome LF in the NL right now. Honorable mention: A. Torres, SF
CF -- A. Pagan, NYM (3.2, 12.5 306/362/466 366). With incumbent (and teammate) Carlos Beltran sidelined by injury, Pagan has filled in nicely. Technically Marlon Byrd has been more valuable (3.8 WAR), but I would rather have Pagan and his awesome fielding roaming center. Honorable mention: M Byrd, ChC
RF -- J. Upton, Ari (2.4, 5.7 269/354/460 360). Besides 3B, this was the toughest call in the NL. I really like Upton, but he's down this year. But besides the breakout of Heyward in Atlanta, the rest of the field is pretty comparable to Upton. And I wouldn't trust Corey Hart any farther than I can throw him -- which I couldn't at all (he's a bid dude). Honorable mentions: J. Heyward, Atl; C. Hart, Mil; R. Ludwick, Stl; J. Werth, Phi
Starting rotation (WAR, ERA, FIP)
1. J. Johnson, Fla (4.7, 1.62, 2.25); 2. R. Halladay, Phi (4.4, 2.40, 2.97); 3. Y. Gallardo, Mil (3.0, 2.58, 2.98); 4. U. Jiminez, Col (3.6, 2.38, 3.23); 5. A. Wainwright, Stl (3.6, 2.02, 3.05). Honorable mentions: T. Lincecum, SF; R. Oswalt, Hou; C. Kershaw, LAD
It was tough leaving Lincecum off the list, but the five are picked are awesome, and Lincecum is fading behind the pack. Johnson is likely the best starter in the league, and Halladay is a stud. Jiminez has come back to earth, but his stuff is still sick.
Relievers
1. J. Broxton, LAD (1.7, 3.15, 1.60); 2. S. Marshall, ChC (1.6, 1.88, 2.06); 3. Belisle, Col (1.6, 2.72, 2.45); 4. Bell, SD (1.4, 2.01, 2.06); 5. B. Wilson, SF (1.6, 1.98, 1.98). Honorable mentions: L. Nunez, Fla; B. Wagner, Atl; C. Marmol, ChC
Not a single holdover from last year, which basically tells you how mercurial relievers are. That being said, Broxton is awesome, and Bell and Wilson are studs.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Looking back at some great MLB decisions
Recently came across Jon Heyman's article at SI.com via Rob Neyer on ESPN.com where he examined the best 15 baseball management decisions of the past year. I loved the list and wanted to talk about a couple of them.
- 1. The Nationals' signing of Stephen Strasburg. In June of last year, I opined that the Washington Nationals should pass on drafting the phenom. I then stated a few months later that the Nats made the right decision, mainly because they signed him for less than I thought they would. And of course, Strasburg has been awesome so far, putting up unbelievable numbers: 2.27 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 13.64 K/9, 1.5 WAR. All of this in just 5 starts and about 32 innings. Amazing. But let's not get too crazy. While Heyman is right that it was a good decision, Strasburg might be a once-in-a-lifetime player, or he might be Mark Prior. Time will tell.
- 4. The Padres' decision not to trade Adrian Gonzalez and/or Heath Bell. I predicted that the Padres would finish a distant fourth in the NL West, but San Diego GM Jed Hoyer had a better handle on his team than I did (no big surprise). He held onto his two best players, and they have both contributed to one of baseball's biggest surprises (3.3 and 1.1 WAR respectively).
- 6. The White Sox's decision last August to claim Alex Rios and his $12-million-a-year contract on waivers. Man, I thought the White Sox were crazy when they claimed Rios. And now he's hitting 312/368/534, which would be his best line ever. Will he stay there? Not likely, but he's a great fielder, and even if he falls down to his 06-08 level, Chicago made a great call.
- 9. The Rangers' decision to stick with manager Ron Washington. This is one where I think Heyman missed the mark. Yes, the Rangers lead the AL West by 4.5 games, but there's no reason to believe another manager couldn't have done just as well. I think the decision was still very hypocritical of a sport that is punishing drug users.
- 14. Adrian Beltre's call to turn down Oakland's multiyear offer to sign with Boston for one year. As Heyman points out, if Beltre had signed with the A's, he might have been stuck with the same moniker he had in Seattle: great glove, bad bat. Now he's hitting 340/379/547, thanks to a 404/649 OBP/SLG at cozy Fenway. (Editor's note: These are actually his away splits. He's his OBP/SLG is acually 370/500 at Fenway. Wow.) And he's been great with the glove. This guy is making himself a lot of money, and I hope the Sox resign him, as long as he stops hurting our LFs.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
The panicking Mets
What's with all the panic in NY surrounding the Mets? Do they really have to acquire Cliff Lee to secure a playoff spot?
The 2010 season thus far would say no. The Mets are 1.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East and are the WC leader. Granted, the WC is very tight, with the Cardinals, Phillies, Dodgers and Giants all within 3 games, so lots of potential to blow it. And we know that the Mets have blown it in recent years, so the panic is warranted to some degree.
But do they need Lee? And at what cost? According to Fangraphs.com, the Mets have the 10th best offense in the NL. If you look at their team page at BaseballReference.com, they have some easy upgrades to the lineup: Franceour is not good, but the Mets have Carlos Beltran returning and if the Mets are smart (a big leap there) Angel Pagan will start over Franceour. The other hole is Luis Castillo as 2B. They should be able to better a 624 OPS (and he's below average in the field as well).
Back to Fangraphs, the Mets are similarly 10th in pitching. They have three plus starters (Santana, Pelfrey and Dickey), and a mish-mash group behind them (not that different from the
a lot of teams). The bullpen is actually an area of need as well.
So could the Mets use Cliff Lee? Absolutely, almost any contender could. But the Mariners are likely going to want top prospects, and the Mets might mortgage their future in a year when they could make the playoffs anyway. They have good internal options to upgrade the OF, and upgrading 2B would be cheaper. Can you say Dan Uggla?
So before the New York media pressure Omar Minaya into mortgaging the future for Lee (who would be a tremendous rental arm), the Mets have other areas where an impact upgrade could be made at a fraction of the cost.
The 2010 season thus far would say no. The Mets are 1.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East and are the WC leader. Granted, the WC is very tight, with the Cardinals, Phillies, Dodgers and Giants all within 3 games, so lots of potential to blow it. And we know that the Mets have blown it in recent years, so the panic is warranted to some degree.
But do they need Lee? And at what cost? According to Fangraphs.com, the Mets have the 10th best offense in the NL. If you look at their team page at BaseballReference.com, they have some easy upgrades to the lineup: Franceour is not good, but the Mets have Carlos Beltran returning and if the Mets are smart (a big leap there) Angel Pagan will start over Franceour. The other hole is Luis Castillo as 2B. They should be able to better a 624 OPS (and he's below average in the field as well).
Back to Fangraphs, the Mets are similarly 10th in pitching. They have three plus starters (Santana, Pelfrey and Dickey), and a mish-mash group behind them (not that different from the
a lot of teams). The bullpen is actually an area of need as well.
So could the Mets use Cliff Lee? Absolutely, almost any contender could. But the Mariners are likely going to want top prospects, and the Mets might mortgage their future in a year when they could make the playoffs anyway. They have good internal options to upgrade the OF, and upgrading 2B would be cheaper. Can you say Dan Uggla?
So before the New York media pressure Omar Minaya into mortgaging the future for Lee (who would be a tremendous rental arm), the Mets have other areas where an impact upgrade could be made at a fraction of the cost.
Monday, June 28, 2010
The World Needs Replay
Sunday was not a good day for FIFA. Too phantom goals changed the course of two elimination games, the Argentine goal against Mexico being the most egregious. The Mexican team became deflated, and what had been 25 minutes of griping soccer with two very determined teams, turned into a circus. Argentina scored its bogus goal and Los Tres Colores was left arguing fruitlessly with the FIFA officials. Several minutes later, a careless turnover and Mexico is down 2-0.
Now, I am claiming no Nostradamus powers. If the play had been called correctly, I have no idea who would have won. According to the Soccer Power Index rankings on ESPN.com, Argentina is the second best team in the world; Mexico is No. 12. The true talent level is probably greater, but certainly Mexico is capable of playing a good enough game to beat the blue and white on a given day.
I have stopped reading articles that argue against instant replay. It's just stupid. The job of the officials is to get the call correct, period. If we can fix that, we should. Here are my thoughts, by sport:
Now, I am claiming no Nostradamus powers. If the play had been called correctly, I have no idea who would have won. According to the Soccer Power Index rankings on ESPN.com, Argentina is the second best team in the world; Mexico is No. 12. The true talent level is probably greater, but certainly Mexico is capable of playing a good enough game to beat the blue and white on a given day.
I have stopped reading articles that argue against instant replay. It's just stupid. The job of the officials is to get the call correct, period. If we can fix that, we should. Here are my thoughts, by sport:
- Football. This one is so easy, so of course the NFL has missed it. It is not the responsibility of the coach to officiate a game; no more coach challenges. Just put another ref in the booth who makes the call. No more looking under the hood. He stops the game, he quickly reviews and makes a call.
- Basketball. Anything around scoring (two or three points) and out of bounds plays should be reviewable. Again, a separate replay official who does it on his own.
- Baseball. This is where replay should go to a new level. All balls and strikes should be called electronically, no more 'human factor.' All base calls should be reviewable, as well as home runs and foul balls. Separate replay official.
- Soccer. I already mentioned that FIFA needs another official (or two) on the field. They also need a replay official. It would be very limited, just to replay goals.
This isn't perfect, but it's closer to perfection, and isn't that the point? Don't we want to get as close as we can to the 'true' outcome? The less 'human' factor the better as far as I'm concerned.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Why I Was Wrong About the Red Sox
A little more than a month ago, I wrote that the Rays and the Yankees couldn't be beat. Apparently I'm an idiot. You can look at the May 18, 2010, standings here. The Red Sox were 8.5 games behind the division-leading Rays, and 5 games behind the Yanks. Before games are played on June 22, Boston is tied with Tampa Bay, both teams half a game behind New York. How did this happen?
In there last 30 games, the Sox have been scorching hot, winning 22. The Yanks have been very good, winning 18, and the Rays have been poor, winning just 14. But we can dig deeper.
As of today, the most prolific offense in the American League, measured by the most runs scored. How is that possible? Going by games played, this is the most frequent lineup OF lineup with OPS+ in parentheses: Jeremy Hermida in LF (70), Darnell McDonald in CF (86), JD Drew in RF (116). Keep in mind that Hermida is an fielder at best, and McDonald is not a CF at all. Bill Hall has played a lot in the OF, including CF (though the numbers say he's been an average fielder, maybe even better than that). How can the offense be this good with this OF?
On offense it comes down to five key players, all of whom I will briefly discuss:
In there last 30 games, the Sox have been scorching hot, winning 22. The Yanks have been very good, winning 18, and the Rays have been poor, winning just 14. But we can dig deeper.
As of today, the most prolific offense in the American League, measured by the most runs scored. How is that possible? Going by games played, this is the most frequent lineup OF lineup with OPS+ in parentheses: Jeremy Hermida in LF (70), Darnell McDonald in CF (86), JD Drew in RF (116). Keep in mind that Hermida is an fielder at best, and McDonald is not a CF at all. Bill Hall has played a lot in the OF, including CF (though the numbers say he's been an average fielder, maybe even better than that). How can the offense be this good with this OF?
On offense it comes down to five key players, all of whom I will briefly discuss:
- Kevin Youkilis. He's awesome. He leads the team in most meaningful statistics. According to Fangraphs, he's the second best hitter in baseball this year. He runs the bases well, hits for power, takes his walks, fields his position well. It really irks me sometimes when I hear some Sox fans say that our lineup isn't what it used to be. Youk may not be Manny in his prime, but he's far superior to Jason Bay, and he's having an all-time awesome season. Open your eyes people.
- Adrian Beltre. All of you who thought that by mid-June Beltre would be a Top 15 hitter in the AL, raise your hands? Yeah, me neither. I think his BA with come down and so will his value at the plate (his BABIP is too high at .373), but I also think his fielding will get better. Either way, the signing has been a success (except for him breaking ribs).
- David Ortiz. Two months ago, I discussed trading for a Big Papi replacement. That would have been dumb. The guy is hitting 260/366/555. He's got 15 HRs, the most he's ever had by this point in a season. There's nothing fluky about his numbers. I am sorry Big Papi; can you forgive me?
- Dustin Pedroia. Another very good season from Pedroia, including his usual stellar glove work. Solid.
- Victor Martinez. He started off slow, but he's rebounded nicely. He's pounding LHP, and struggling a bit vs. RHP (which I think is an anomaly). I think he'll come back to earth against LHPs, and will improve against RHPs.
To sum up on the lineup, this is the best lineup in baseball (at least it has been thus far). It may not be the flashiest, but it has been the best.
Pitching has been a two-sided story. Again referencing Fangraphs, Boston has the 3rd best starting rotation in the league, thanks to awesome pitching by Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Dice-K and Lackey have been average, Wakefield has been OK, and Beckett has been awful.
Unfortunately, the bullpen is the other side of that coin. They have been awful, 2nd worst in the league, only bettering Baltimore. Do you know who's been above-average in the pen this year? Daniel Bard. That's it. Papelbon has been shaky, and the rest of the bullpen is very questionable.
But here we sit on June 22, and the Sox are in it. The Rays lineup looks average, and the young pitching is regressing a little. And the Yankees don't look so unbeatable. So forget everything I wrote a month ago about the Sox being done and go back to my AL preview. The Sox are going to make the playoffs.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Making adjustments: The making of a great pitcher
I don't know if we'll ever see another reliever like Mariano Rivera. He is a wonder. Look at some of these career numbers: 16 seasons, 2.24 ERA, 529 saves, 203 ERA+, 2.79 FIP, 50.6 WAR (according to baseball-reference). Some other fascinating facts.
- Since 2002, Mariano has only had one season with an ERA over 2.00 (2007). The same is true of his FIP.
- The dude is 40.
- Until 2005, he had only one season with more than 9/K per 9. Since then, he's had five. And remember: this started when he was 35.
- Over the course of his career, he's struck out almost 4 times as many batters as he's walked.
- He's pitched at least 61 innings every year except for 2002. Now, he's not Rollie Fingers in the innings department, but actually, I'd take Mariano over Fingers any day.
- Did I mention the guy got better with age? And that he's having a similarly brilliant season at the age of 40?
Of course, only three things can explain the above amazingness:
- Performance enhancing drugs
- Dark magic
- He learned a pitch from Bugs Bunny
Yankees fans can send me hate mail yankeessuck@jeterisapansy.com.
Now you might be asking why a Red Sox fan would be singing the praises of the reliever of Satan's Minions. For lots of reasons. He's awesome. I'm not longer terrified by him after 2004. And he exemplifies how great pitchers make adjustments over time.
If you listen to announcers, you might get the impression that Rivera has been the same reliever since he began setting up for John Wetteland in mid-90s. But the numbers do not bear this out.
He's throwing different pitches. Since 2002, he's switched how he's thrown the ball, changing his pitch-mix assortment, and seeing some drop in velocity. Yet his performance has not suffered, and his pitches continue to be just as valuable. How is that possible? Adjustments. Grip, arm angle, every tool he has, Rivera has used to his advantage to be one of the most dominant relievers of all time.
I recently wrote about how Papelbon is losing his dominant stuff. He has also made adjustments, but the results are not there. actually the opposite. And that's the difference between the great and the very good. Between Rivera and Papelbon. Between Clemens and Beckett. Greatness as a pitcher is making adjustments over time, and maintaing great, consistent performance.
So that's why even a Red Sox fan can enjoy the great Mariano.
Friday, June 4, 2010
The befuddling Dice-K experiment
This is Daisuke Matsuzaka's line this season for the Red Sox: 41 IP, 32 K, 21 BB, 3 HR, 5.49 ERA. If you want to get a little more analytical, he's got a 4.17 FIP, which means he's been a little unlucky. Regardless, he's been average at best this season, with rates of 7.0 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.
This is Dice-K's fourth season in Boston, and according to his Fangraph's page, he's been worth 8.3 wins above replacement during this period, most of it during his 'rookie' campaign of 2007, and his bizarre 18-3 2008 season. Last season was brutal (only 60 ineffective innings) and the results this year have not been good.
Dice-K was a legend in Japan, his exploits well documented. Very few major leaguers can boast a Wikipedia page as detailed and impressive as his. You can read about his amazing 250-pitch, 17-inning performance in the Japanese high school baseball championships. Or maybe you remember his 2006 and 2009 World Baseball Classic performances, playing a key role in Japan winning both championships.
The question, though, is not what Dice-K did in high school or the WBC, but what value he's been to the Sox. Yes, 2007 and 2008 were good seasons, and his rookie season helped Boston win championship (though he only pitched once in that post-season).
The Sox paid $51 million for the rights to negotiate with Dice-K, and then another $52 million to sign him through 2012. He's currently being paid $8.3 million, and he will make $10.3 million in 2011 and 2012, before becoming a free agent.
At this point, it is too early to tell, but tying up this much money in a pitcher who's averaging less than 3 WAR a season is not good. Yes, easy to look back and say that now (I did support the signing at the time), but I'm not sure the Dice-K experiment has been a success.
Besides a night when Wakefield's knuckler is off, Dice-K is by far the most frustrating pitcher on the Sox to watch. He can dominate for 2-3 innings, looking like some king of combination between Greg Maddux and Tim Lincecum, and then struggle the next, looking more like a combo between Mike Maddux and Tim Leary.
Nothing that has happened over the past four years diminishes Dice-K's Japanese legend. But his MLB career is becoming much less than that: slightly overpaid average MLB starter.
This is Dice-K's fourth season in Boston, and according to his Fangraph's page, he's been worth 8.3 wins above replacement during this period, most of it during his 'rookie' campaign of 2007, and his bizarre 18-3 2008 season. Last season was brutal (only 60 ineffective innings) and the results this year have not been good.
Dice-K was a legend in Japan, his exploits well documented. Very few major leaguers can boast a Wikipedia page as detailed and impressive as his. You can read about his amazing 250-pitch, 17-inning performance in the Japanese high school baseball championships. Or maybe you remember his 2006 and 2009 World Baseball Classic performances, playing a key role in Japan winning both championships.
The question, though, is not what Dice-K did in high school or the WBC, but what value he's been to the Sox. Yes, 2007 and 2008 were good seasons, and his rookie season helped Boston win championship (though he only pitched once in that post-season).
The Sox paid $51 million for the rights to negotiate with Dice-K, and then another $52 million to sign him through 2012. He's currently being paid $8.3 million, and he will make $10.3 million in 2011 and 2012, before becoming a free agent.
At this point, it is too early to tell, but tying up this much money in a pitcher who's averaging less than 3 WAR a season is not good. Yes, easy to look back and say that now (I did support the signing at the time), but I'm not sure the Dice-K experiment has been a success.
Besides a night when Wakefield's knuckler is off, Dice-K is by far the most frustrating pitcher on the Sox to watch. He can dominate for 2-3 innings, looking like some king of combination between Greg Maddux and Tim Lincecum, and then struggle the next, looking more like a combo between Mike Maddux and Tim Leary.
Nothing that has happened over the past four years diminishes Dice-K's Japanese legend. But his MLB career is becoming much less than that: slightly overpaid average MLB starter.
Monday, May 31, 2010
The Greatness of Ubaldo Jiminez
If you're not a diehard baseball fan or fantasy baseball player, you probably don't know who Ubaldo Jiminez is. Well, you should. He's very likely the best best pitcher on the planet. And he pitches for the Colorado Rockies.
After shutting out the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park today, he improved to 10-1 with a hardly believable 0.78 ERA. He's given up 1 home run in more than 70 innings. He's been unhittable this year.
I tuned into the Giants-Rockies game today for two reasons: 1) the Red Sox weren't playing; 2) I wanted to see the match-up of Tim Lincecum and Jiminez. If you didn't know that Lincecum was the two-time reigning Cy Young award winner, you wouldn't have thought Lincecum was considered the better pitcher coming into the season.
But on May 31, 2010 (and for the 2010 season thus far), Jiminez was the best. He was absolutely wicked. His 26 outs: 9 Ks, 9 GBs, 8 FBs. He gave up only 4 hits, and walked 2 batters. He was awesome.
And yes, I realize he was dominating a below-average offense, who's best hitter might be a player recently promoted from AAA (Buster Posey), but he's dominating every lineup he's facing.
Will he finish the season with an ERA under 1.00? No. Will he only give up 3-4 homers all year? Not likely. But he's is pitching in a special zone right now, and it was really fun to watch on this Memorial Day.
After shutting out the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park today, he improved to 10-1 with a hardly believable 0.78 ERA. He's given up 1 home run in more than 70 innings. He's been unhittable this year.
I tuned into the Giants-Rockies game today for two reasons: 1) the Red Sox weren't playing; 2) I wanted to see the match-up of Tim Lincecum and Jiminez. If you didn't know that Lincecum was the two-time reigning Cy Young award winner, you wouldn't have thought Lincecum was considered the better pitcher coming into the season.
But on May 31, 2010 (and for the 2010 season thus far), Jiminez was the best. He was absolutely wicked. His 26 outs: 9 Ks, 9 GBs, 8 FBs. He gave up only 4 hits, and walked 2 batters. He was awesome.
And yes, I realize he was dominating a below-average offense, who's best hitter might be a player recently promoted from AAA (Buster Posey), but he's dominating every lineup he's facing.
Will he finish the season with an ERA under 1.00? No. Will he only give up 3-4 homers all year? Not likely. But he's is pitching in a special zone right now, and it was really fun to watch on this Memorial Day.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Papelbon is losing it
Red Sox Nation is an unforgiving bunch. I used to give some of my Philadelphia Phillies fan friends grief for the fact that Mike Schmidt was booed when he played for the there. But now I've heard the Fenway 'Faithful' boo David Ortiz, one of the heroes of two championship teams, an easy winner for best Red Sox DH of all-time. I may have suggested earlier this season benching Ortiz, but I would never boo the man. Actually, I'm against booing your own team unless someone does something like attack an ump or go into the crowd and start throwing haymakers.
Now the Nation is turning on Jonathan Papelbon, the all-time Red Sox saves leader and the man who dominated in 2007 on the way to Boston's second title of the past decade.
But 2009 and 2010 have been a different story. Last season Paps had a stellar 1.85 ERA, but it was a mirage. His walk rate was a high 3.18/9 while his K rate remained around 10. And his fastball went from a massively effective pitch to only a very good one. And if you watched most of his appearances (which I did in 2009) he was missing his old dominance.
(All the stats for today's discussion comes from Papelbon's player page at Fangraphs.)
This season has been worse, encapsulated by his two appearances this week against the Yanks. On Monday he gave up two homers, the first time he's done that since he was converted full-time to a reliever, including one to Marcus Thames for heaven's sake. And then Tuesday he walked a tight-rope again. He looks even shakier than he did last year, bring back bad flashes of Bob Stanley.
The numbers bear this out. Besides currently being a below-replacement reliever this season(yikes!), his fastball is not just not dominant anymore. His slider and splitter have been very effective, but seeing as though he's a dominant fastball pitcher (over his career he's thrown it 78% of the time), getting his splitter to be effective is great, but an average fastball will end his days as an effective closer.
Many Sox fans thought Papelbon was Boston's answer to Mariano Rivera, but unless he figures it out and makes the right adjustments, he's more likely to be Boston's version of Francisco Rodriguez: a few dominant seasons, but best to let him go before he gets too expensive.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Rays and Yanks can't be beat
A month ago I wrote about how the Red Sox still had a chance. Am I completely writing them off? Certainly not. One year ago today the Yankees were 4.5 games behind first-place Toronto. The Blue Jays imploded, and the Yanks went on to win the title. So in theory, the Sox could come back.
Except for two minor problems: The Rays and the Yankees. When I previewed the American League, I underestimated the Rays for one reason: their pitching. According to Fangraphs, they have the second best pitching staff in the American League. Their lineup is just OK, but that pitching is phenomenal, with young starters David Price and Jeff Niemann making the leap.
And the Yanks? That lineup is unreal so far. Even with Texeira struggling, Baseball Prospectus has the Yanks as, by far, the best offensive team in baseball. There's not weakness, especially hwne you have you back-up catcher hitting like .800.
What has foiled the Sox? I know that I and others have hounded the offense, particularly Big Papi and Victor Martinez. But the offense has been the fourth best in the league; the pitching has failed them. Beckett and Lackey have been average. Papelbon and most of the rest of the bullpen (with the exception of Bard) has been shaky.
Add to that an average defense, and you have a team that will have a very hard time catching the Rays and Yankees, as much as I hate typing that. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think Tampa and New York are the two best teams in baseball, and that the Red Sox will be watching the 2010 postseason from home.
Except for two minor problems: The Rays and the Yankees. When I previewed the American League, I underestimated the Rays for one reason: their pitching. According to Fangraphs, they have the second best pitching staff in the American League. Their lineup is just OK, but that pitching is phenomenal, with young starters David Price and Jeff Niemann making the leap.
And the Yanks? That lineup is unreal so far. Even with Texeira struggling, Baseball Prospectus has the Yanks as, by far, the best offensive team in baseball. There's not weakness, especially hwne you have you back-up catcher hitting like .800.
What has foiled the Sox? I know that I and others have hounded the offense, particularly Big Papi and Victor Martinez. But the offense has been the fourth best in the league; the pitching has failed them. Beckett and Lackey have been average. Papelbon and most of the rest of the bullpen (with the exception of Bard) has been shaky.
Add to that an average defense, and you have a team that will have a very hard time catching the Rays and Yankees, as much as I hate typing that. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think Tampa and New York are the two best teams in baseball, and that the Red Sox will be watching the 2010 postseason from home.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
The Fall of Big Papi
Rumors are swirling around the world wide web that the very slow start of David Ortiz might force the Red Sox to release the formerly feared slugger and go find another DH. Bill Simmons recently discussed with Jonah Kerri on a podcast that the Red Sox really need a big-bopping left-handed bat to complement the three top hitters on the Sox, Youk (R), Pedroia (R), and Martinez (S).
Now I hate to speak of Big Papi as if he's already dead, but I'm going to. Here are my thoughts on hitters (inside the organization and out) who the Sox could add if Theo & Co. decide that the ship has sailed on his career.
Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox (AA)
Going into 2009, Anderson was the wunder-hitting prospect of the Red Sox system, a 20 year-old lefty bat destined for Fenway greatness. In 163 PAs at AA Portland, he hit 316/436/526. By 2010 or 2011, he would be with the big club, Youk moving over to 3B with Lars taking over 1B.
But then 2009 happened. Anderson spent the entire season in Portland, 522 PAs, with a bad 233/328/388. His patience remained, but everything else about his hitting seemed to disappear. But remember: He was 21. So he started 2010 in Portland again, and in 67 PAs he's hitting 328/388/672. He's unlikely to maintain that power level, but I'm hopeful this is a sign of progression. I really like Anderson, and I think he's the long-term solution at 1B/DH.
Adam's reco: Not sure he's ready, but if other options don't pan out, they should give him a shot.
Adam Dunn, 1B-OF, Washington Nationals
Check out his Fangraphs page. Dunn is in an incredibly consistent hitter. You will get a low batting average, high OBP and pop. And he sucks in the field. His UZR ratings in the OF are brutal, and if you buy his 2009 UZR at 1B, he's the worst first sacker in the history of the universe.
Of course, if he's replacing Ortiz, his positional deficiencies would be eliminated, except for occasional adventure-filled starts in the field. DH is Dunn's natural position, and the Nationals should leverage that and flip him to the AL for a couple of useful prospects.
Reco: Obviously I think this is good idea. And you could still use Lowell as the DH against particularly tough southpaws.
Paul Konerko, 1B-DH, Chicago White Sox
I don't think the White Sox will be interested in flipping Konerko anytime soon, but if the White Sox fall out of contention by midseason (which they will), the prospective free agent will become trade bait. Konerko does not hit the consistently level of Dunn, but he's been pretty consistent in his career. Decent batting average, decent OBP, decent to great pop. But he is a right-handed batter, and I'm not sure he's a better hitter than Lowell.
Reco: I would pass. Lowell or Anderson would be better options.
Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
On the North side of Chicago, there's another right-handed free-agent-to-be. Lee is an enigma; in 06 and 08, he was just OK, and he excelled in 07 and 09. He's off to a slow start this season, which fits with his recent even/odd trend. He's also a decent fielder, so that gives him value someone like Dunn wouldn't have.
Would the Cubs part with him? If they fall out of contention, they might. But their payroll in 2010 is $144 million (according to Cot's Contracts), so I think they will be reluctant to unload Lee unless they are way out of contention.
Reco: The Sox should keep an eye on this one, but I wouldn't count on him being available. But if he was, he would be a major upgrade over Ortiz and Lowell.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland
Now, I am not putting his name on to piss off Cleveland fans. As I was perusing rosters, his name intrigued me. He had a poor, injury-filled 2009. But from 05-08, this guy was was between 5-7.5 WAR a season. With the current injuries in the Boston outfield, Sizemore could fill in on a temporary basis at any OF position. And when everyone was healthy, they could rotate DH to keep everyone healthy and fresh.
Of course, Sizemore is under team control through 2012, so Cleveland would be very reluctant to move him (especially after unloading C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in the past two years).
Reco: If I was Theo I would ask, but I think the answer would be no, and the cost would be too high.
Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, Houston Astros
This continues my theme of older firstbasemen. Berkman is a switch-hitter who, like Lee, has mixed good and very good season recently. He will likely give you a .400 OBP and some pop. Like some of the other options, he is much better against RHP than LHP, so Lowell could be kept for a platoon.
His contract has a club option for 2011. The Astros always believe they are in it, so unless they are way out of it, it's likely they won't be inclined to deal the face of the franchise.
Reco: I think Berkman would be a decent fit, but I think the changes of the Astros parting ways with him are close to zero.
Price Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
After the ridiculous extension the Phillies just handed out to Ryan Howard, I think Prince Fielder is going to get a ton in arbitration in 2011. Would the Brewers think about moving him? Maybe, if they fall out of contention. He is not going to sign a discounted extension like Ryan Braun, especially if some team is going to overpay him like Philly did with Howard.
In four major league seasons, Fielder has sandwiched two very good seasons with two mediocre ones. Like Dunn, his natural position is probably DH, so a move to the AL is probably good for his long-term career prospects.
Reco: He will cost a lot if Milwaukee falls out of the race. I would ask, but quickly walk away if the price escalated above my comfort zone.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
I couldn't write a list like this without including Gonzalez. Now, we all know he's great hitter, though I think his greatness has been overblown a little bit. The Boston press corps has been selling him like the lefthanded Albert Pujols, which he is not. Still, he's very good.
Don't listen to what Padres management is saying in the press; they will trade him, it's just a matter of when.
Reco: It's obvious the Sox are flirting with a Gonzalez trade, and that would be great, but I think the price is going to be too high.
Final Recommendation
If Sox management decides to let Ortiz go, I think bringing up Lars Anderson and seeing what he's got at this point should be the first option. And if he doesn't hold up, I would pursue Gonzalez, Dunn or Berkman. And I do think, as sad as it makes me, that Big Papi's days in Boston are numbered.
Now I hate to speak of Big Papi as if he's already dead, but I'm going to. Here are my thoughts on hitters (inside the organization and out) who the Sox could add if Theo & Co. decide that the ship has sailed on his career.
Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox (AA)
Going into 2009, Anderson was the wunder-hitting prospect of the Red Sox system, a 20 year-old lefty bat destined for Fenway greatness. In 163 PAs at AA Portland, he hit 316/436/526. By 2010 or 2011, he would be with the big club, Youk moving over to 3B with Lars taking over 1B.
But then 2009 happened. Anderson spent the entire season in Portland, 522 PAs, with a bad 233/328/388. His patience remained, but everything else about his hitting seemed to disappear. But remember: He was 21. So he started 2010 in Portland again, and in 67 PAs he's hitting 328/388/672. He's unlikely to maintain that power level, but I'm hopeful this is a sign of progression. I really like Anderson, and I think he's the long-term solution at 1B/DH.
Adam's reco: Not sure he's ready, but if other options don't pan out, they should give him a shot.
Adam Dunn, 1B-OF, Washington Nationals
Check out his Fangraphs page. Dunn is in an incredibly consistent hitter. You will get a low batting average, high OBP and pop. And he sucks in the field. His UZR ratings in the OF are brutal, and if you buy his 2009 UZR at 1B, he's the worst first sacker in the history of the universe.
Of course, if he's replacing Ortiz, his positional deficiencies would be eliminated, except for occasional adventure-filled starts in the field. DH is Dunn's natural position, and the Nationals should leverage that and flip him to the AL for a couple of useful prospects.
Reco: Obviously I think this is good idea. And you could still use Lowell as the DH against particularly tough southpaws.
Paul Konerko, 1B-DH, Chicago White Sox
I don't think the White Sox will be interested in flipping Konerko anytime soon, but if the White Sox fall out of contention by midseason (which they will), the prospective free agent will become trade bait. Konerko does not hit the consistently level of Dunn, but he's been pretty consistent in his career. Decent batting average, decent OBP, decent to great pop. But he is a right-handed batter, and I'm not sure he's a better hitter than Lowell.
Reco: I would pass. Lowell or Anderson would be better options.
Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
On the North side of Chicago, there's another right-handed free-agent-to-be. Lee is an enigma; in 06 and 08, he was just OK, and he excelled in 07 and 09. He's off to a slow start this season, which fits with his recent even/odd trend. He's also a decent fielder, so that gives him value someone like Dunn wouldn't have.
Would the Cubs part with him? If they fall out of contention, they might. But their payroll in 2010 is $144 million (according to Cot's Contracts), so I think they will be reluctant to unload Lee unless they are way out of contention.
Reco: The Sox should keep an eye on this one, but I wouldn't count on him being available. But if he was, he would be a major upgrade over Ortiz and Lowell.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland
Now, I am not putting his name on to piss off Cleveland fans. As I was perusing rosters, his name intrigued me. He had a poor, injury-filled 2009. But from 05-08, this guy was was between 5-7.5 WAR a season. With the current injuries in the Boston outfield, Sizemore could fill in on a temporary basis at any OF position. And when everyone was healthy, they could rotate DH to keep everyone healthy and fresh.
Of course, Sizemore is under team control through 2012, so Cleveland would be very reluctant to move him (especially after unloading C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in the past two years).
Reco: If I was Theo I would ask, but I think the answer would be no, and the cost would be too high.
Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, Houston Astros
This continues my theme of older firstbasemen. Berkman is a switch-hitter who, like Lee, has mixed good and very good season recently. He will likely give you a .400 OBP and some pop. Like some of the other options, he is much better against RHP than LHP, so Lowell could be kept for a platoon.
His contract has a club option for 2011. The Astros always believe they are in it, so unless they are way out of it, it's likely they won't be inclined to deal the face of the franchise.
Reco: I think Berkman would be a decent fit, but I think the changes of the Astros parting ways with him are close to zero.
Price Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
After the ridiculous extension the Phillies just handed out to Ryan Howard, I think Prince Fielder is going to get a ton in arbitration in 2011. Would the Brewers think about moving him? Maybe, if they fall out of contention. He is not going to sign a discounted extension like Ryan Braun, especially if some team is going to overpay him like Philly did with Howard.
In four major league seasons, Fielder has sandwiched two very good seasons with two mediocre ones. Like Dunn, his natural position is probably DH, so a move to the AL is probably good for his long-term career prospects.
Reco: He will cost a lot if Milwaukee falls out of the race. I would ask, but quickly walk away if the price escalated above my comfort zone.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
I couldn't write a list like this without including Gonzalez. Now, we all know he's great hitter, though I think his greatness has been overblown a little bit. The Boston press corps has been selling him like the lefthanded Albert Pujols, which he is not. Still, he's very good.
Don't listen to what Padres management is saying in the press; they will trade him, it's just a matter of when.
Reco: It's obvious the Sox are flirting with a Gonzalez trade, and that would be great, but I think the price is going to be too high.
Final Recommendation
If Sox management decides to let Ortiz go, I think bringing up Lars Anderson and seeing what he's got at this point should be the first option. And if he doesn't hold up, I would pursue Gonzalez, Dunn or Berkman. And I do think, as sad as it makes me, that Big Papi's days in Boston are numbered.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
The Red Sox can compete in AL East
Last night my dad asked, "What's up with the Sox?" I've read headlines asking if the Red Sox can compete with the Rays and the Yankees. And certainly fans are anxious about the mediocre start, which includes some poor hitting, fielding and pitching.
Just a few weeks ago the Red Sox were a fashionable choice to make the playoffs, and I agreed with many other prognosticators. Very little has changed in my estimation. Let's throw some reality on this start.
AL Easy Standings (April 19, 2010)
W L GB
Tampa Bay 10 3 -
New York 9 3 .5
Toronto 8 6 2.5
Boston 4 9 6
Baltimore 2 12 8.5
Not good, right? Well let's look at last year, same time frame.
AL East Standings (April 19, 2009)
W L GB
Toronto 10 4 -
Boston 7 6 2.5
New York 7 6 2.5
Baltimore 6 7 3.5
Tampa Bay 5 8 4.5
The standings looked nothing like this at the end of the year, with New York and Boston dominating, and Toronto fading. Also, the Red Sox won 8 straight against the Yankees last season, and the media jumped on that. The season series finished even at 9-9, so making too much about this Tampa Bay sweep is not prudent.
Are there some areas of concern? Sure. I would list them in this order.
Just a few weeks ago the Red Sox were a fashionable choice to make the playoffs, and I agreed with many other prognosticators. Very little has changed in my estimation. Let's throw some reality on this start.
AL Easy Standings (April 19, 2010)
W L GB
Tampa Bay 10 3 -
New York 9 3 .5
Toronto 8 6 2.5
Boston 4 9 6
Baltimore 2 12 8.5
Not good, right? Well let's look at last year, same time frame.
AL East Standings (April 19, 2009)
W L GB
Toronto 10 4 -
Boston 7 6 2.5
New York 7 6 2.5
Baltimore 6 7 3.5
Tampa Bay 5 8 4.5
The standings looked nothing like this at the end of the year, with New York and Boston dominating, and Toronto fading. Also, the Red Sox won 8 straight against the Yankees last season, and the media jumped on that. The season series finished even at 9-9, so making too much about this Tampa Bay sweep is not prudent.
Are there some areas of concern? Sure. I would list them in this order.
- Outfield health. Mike Cameron is on the DL, Ellsbury probably should have been. It doesn't seem anyone knows when the OF will be at full strength again.
- John Lackey. In this piece on Fangraphs.com, author Jack Moore mentions that, through just his first two starts, he'd pitched differently than he has in the past and that his velocity was down. Obviously Monday's result enforced potential problems with Lackey.
- The DH spot. David Ortiz is struggling, and I've already made my case for a DH platoon with Mike Lowell. Epstein and Francona need to figure this out in the next 4-6 weeks.
- The defense. It's way too early to say whether the defensive changes have been successful or not. I've watched most of the games, and Cameron has not played well defensively, Ellsbury looks tentative going toward the wall in LF, and Tony Massarotti in the Boston Globe says Scutaro looks a little limited going to his left. Just something to watch.
As of April 19, 2010, I have no reason to believe the Red Sox will not make the playoffs. They are in a division with two other very good teams, so they may have a decent season and still miss the playoffs, but I don't see a sub-.500 team.
Monday, April 19, 2010
One Crazy Game: Mets and Cards go 20 innings
On Saturday I watched one of the craziest baseball games ever. I'm actually quite surprised and the lack of discussion about this game -- maybe it's because the NBA playoffs were starting, maybe it's because it's only April, maybe because no one watched so it's not as compelling to read about or see some highlights of a bizarre 20-inning game between the Mets and Cardinals.
It may be the most interesting baseball game I ever watched. Now it wasn't the best played, and it wasn't the best managed, but there were some spectacular plays. I started watching in the 7th inning and watched through the end missing most of the Heat-Celtics game because of it.
Before I recap my experience, let me say that I think managing a baseball team is relatively easy, and that many managers make it too hard. This isn't like coaching football or basketball. You fill out a lineup card (easy), and then make some pitching changes (harder). The degree of difficulty is increased in the NL because of the pitcher batting.
Also, I do not think Tony LaRussa is a genius. To the contrary, I think he's a below-average manager who over-thinks almost every decision, and inserts himself into the game way too much.
On with the game. You can see the complete ESPN.com play-by-play here; otherwise I'm only going to talk about the insanity. Also, for kicks, check out Joe Posnanski's similar effort on SI.com. I saw this after I wrote mine, I promise.
Seventh Inning
I pick up the scoreless game in the bottom of the seventh. Johan Santana (7IP, 4H, 9K) and Jaime Garcia (7IP, 1H, 5K, no-hitter into the 6th) pitched great games. In this inning Santana strikes out two with a runner on second to end the threat.
Eight Inning
A little drama here. Ryan Ludwick walks with two outs, and then they pitch around Albert Pujols and put him on as well. Up comes very-well compensated Matt Holliday to do what he was brought to St. Louis to do: make teams pay for pitching around Pujols. He wiffs against Met reliever Ryota Igarashi. Holliday would go 0-for-5 with 3 Ks on the day before being lifted in the 11th in a double switch. He was playing the game with the flu.
10th Inning
The Cardinals load the bases with two outs in the bottom of the inning on a Schumaker walk, a Ludwick single, and a Pujols walk. Holliday fouls out to 1B. He looked sick in the two ABs I saw, and not the good sick.
11th Inning
In what will become a running theme, New York outfielder Angel Pagan becomes baserunning goat No. 1 by getting picked off first with two outs.
12th inning
This is where it gets really crazy. With two outs and Schumaker on first, Ludwick reaches on, of all things, catcher interference. For the second time in the game, Pujols is walked (semi-intentially) to load the bases with two outs. Holliday had been removed in a double switch, so due up was reliever Jason Motte, who had faced three batters in the top of the inning. At this point, LaRussa had back-up catcher Bryan Anderson, a 23-year-old rookie, as the only position player on the bench. He let Motte hit with the base loaded, a reliever with one career AB. He struck out. Anderson was a career 299/362/420 batter in 6 minor league seasons. Great hitter? Absolutely not. But better than the 99% chance of Motte striking out.
13th inning
So Motte starts his second inning of work and gets two quick fly outs. Then Rod Barajas singles. How slow is Barajas? Jerry Manuel sends in pinch runner John Maine -- a starting pitcher. So what does LaRussa do? Motte has now thrown 25 pitches (his highest total of the young season), but was working on two days rest. After letting him hit in the 12th, he pulls him to put in lefthander Dennys Reyes. The dude was playing match-ups in a scoreless game in the 12th! The move does work though; Pagan lines out.
And then LaRussa does it again the the bottom half. With one out and two strikes and Felipe Lopez batting, rookie infielder Allen Craig is throw out stealing second after Lopez strikes out. Apparently LaRussa is gunning for the longest game ever by giving away outs. Craig had was 13-for-17 stealing bases in 4 minor league seasons.
14th inning
In the bottom of the inning, Reyes retires two more batters (15 total pitches) and is removed. To be fair, Reyes usually faces 1-2 batters per game, in true LaRusa style. To also be fair, it's the 14th inning, and LaRussa has two relievers left. So of course he brings in righty Blake Hawksworth. Hawksworth gives up a single to Luis Castillo, and walks David Wright. The Mets are knocking on the door! Unfortunately the well-compensated Jason Day grounds into a fielders choice. Apparently this is not the day for overpaid LFs.
It is important to note that neither manager has used their 'best' reliever, as both closers will appear later in the game. I don't remember announcers Kenny Albers and Tim McCarver mentioning it, but Mets' closer Francisco Rodriguez would warm up almost every inning after the ninth. So Manuel and the New York coaching staff are just as dumb as LaRussa. The both saved their best relievers so they could gun for meaningless statistics.
16th inning
In the top of the inning, Pagan leads off with a single against Hawksworth. Next up, Mike Jacobs, he of the career .313 OBP, who's know primarily as a guy with pop (32 HRs in 2008 with Florida). He is asked to bunt, of course, which would be his first successful sacrifice of his 6-year major league career, and probably his first ever. I was cursing Manuel at the moment he lays down the successful sacrifice, moving Pagan to third. Despite Jacobs' atrocious 2009 for Kansas City (228/297/401), he's still hit a HR about every 20 PAs during his career, and he hits righties OK. Defensible move? Only because it worked. In other news, Jacobs was designated for assignment the very next day. The bunt was all for nothing, as Jose Reyes grounds out, and Castillo stikes out.
In the bottom of the inning, LaRussa gets a shot of caffeine and decides to finally use his last position player to bat for Hawksworth with Ludwick on second and Pujols on first. Anderson then grounds into a DP to end the inning.
17th inning
Closer sighting! Ryan Franklin pitches an inning for the Cardinals. He only faces three batters because David Wright is throw out trying to steal second. At least Wright is a good base stealer, though Yadier Molina has a cannon.
18th inning
Infielder Felipe Lopez is on the mound for the Cards! Not sure why Franklin wasn't given a second inning. He threw 18 pitches in the 17th, but I'm not sure if he warmed up multiple times, and it was his second appearance in two days. No idea why Lopez was the choice, but he pitches a scoreless inning. It starts with Henry Blanco hitting a blooper to LF, and SS Brendan Ryan making a Willie Mays catch. Lopez almost pees his pants. I think he also may have broken 70 mph on the radar gun. The best part is the 'battle' between Lopez and Mets reliever Raul Valdes. It was an amazing contest with Valdes getting an infield single. Ryan's throw gets away from Pujols, but then Valdes is thrown out trying to get to second. Holy crap!
19th inning
Another inning, another position player pitching for St. Louis. Joe Mather pinch hit in the 10th, then played CF, then played 3B, and then moved to the mound. Lopez moved to 3B -- for his second stint on the hot corner. The good news? Mather breaks 80 on the gun. The bad news? He couldn't throw a strike. The better news? The Mets only score one run because Manuel's an idiot. After Reyes walks to start the inning, Castillo sacrifices. What? A sac bunt against a friggin' outfielder? What a joke. Then LaRussa trumps Manuel's stupidity by intentionally walking Wright. The guy can't buy a strike, but hey, let's put on some more baserunners. Of course, Mather than hits Jason Bay, which might have been bad, except the ball was moving 42 mph. Jeff Franceour (the one guy in the Mets lineup who would never walk) gets Reyes home on a SF. LaRussa then intentionally walks Blanco to get to pitcher Valdes, his second AB of the game, and he grounds out to Pujols.
But the Cards strike back in their half. On comes the infamous KRod, who had apparently been warming up for like 6 hours. According to this story, the dude had been up 10 times and thrown close to 100 warm-up pitches. Manuel was determined not to let LaRussa take the title of 'dumbest manager of the day.'
But, of course, LaRussa would not strike back. Ludwick would work a walk, and then up comes the mighty Pujols. So what does Ludwick do? He freakin' gets caught stealing! Who called for that? Even if it works, they walk Pujols at that point and Kyle Lohse (a freakin' pitcher) is on deck. Let Pujols hit you morons! He's the best hitter on the planet!
Pujols then doubles, of course, and advances to thirdon a Lohse ground out. Molina singles to tie the game, in what could have been the game winning hit.
Listen, I know I'm being rough on LaRussa/Ludwick, but come on. If they pitch to Pujols, you tie the game and there's no outs. If they walk Pujols, Lohse sacrifices and you've got two runners in scoring position with one out. LaRussa is not a genius, people. More like a jester.
20th inning
Mather is out for his second inning of torture...I mean, pitching. Again, the only run he gives up is on a SF by Reyes, scoring Pagan. My hat goes off to Lopez and Mather for keeping St. Louis in the game with 75-mph fastballs.
Starter Mike Pelfrey comes in to earn his first career save, but not without drama, as he allowed a single and a walk. Pelfrey had pitched two days before -- 106 pitches in 7 shutout innings against the Rockies to pick up a win. He threw 18 pitches to save Manuel further managing, which would only lead to humiliation.
I know that managing a 20-inning game is very difficult, and it will likely wreak havoc on these two rosters for weeks to come, especially the pitching staffs. I applaud LaRussa for putting position players on the mound instead of putting starters out there, which would have screwed up his rotation and possibly risked injury.
But overall, these two managers exposed their weaknesses in the worst way. Manuel has absolutely no idea what he's doing. His management of KRod was borderline criminal, and his love for the sacrifice and stolen base shows that he doesn't understand the value of an out, or the various skill sets of his players. Where's Earl Weaver?
LaRussa? He just tries too hard. but I'd rather have him than Manuel. Though his game management was highly questionable, and he also loves the sacrifice and the stolen base way too much, at least he did nothing to jeopardize the long-term prospects of his team.
Regardless, this game entertained me in a way that no other April baseball game ever has, and I even switched over to the Ubaldo Jiminez no-hitter (thank you MLB.TV) as well. What an awesome day of baseball.
It may be the most interesting baseball game I ever watched. Now it wasn't the best played, and it wasn't the best managed, but there were some spectacular plays. I started watching in the 7th inning and watched through the end missing most of the Heat-Celtics game because of it.
Before I recap my experience, let me say that I think managing a baseball team is relatively easy, and that many managers make it too hard. This isn't like coaching football or basketball. You fill out a lineup card (easy), and then make some pitching changes (harder). The degree of difficulty is increased in the NL because of the pitcher batting.
Also, I do not think Tony LaRussa is a genius. To the contrary, I think he's a below-average manager who over-thinks almost every decision, and inserts himself into the game way too much.
On with the game. You can see the complete ESPN.com play-by-play here; otherwise I'm only going to talk about the insanity. Also, for kicks, check out Joe Posnanski's similar effort on SI.com. I saw this after I wrote mine, I promise.
Seventh Inning
I pick up the scoreless game in the bottom of the seventh. Johan Santana (7IP, 4H, 9K) and Jaime Garcia (7IP, 1H, 5K, no-hitter into the 6th) pitched great games. In this inning Santana strikes out two with a runner on second to end the threat.
Eight Inning
A little drama here. Ryan Ludwick walks with two outs, and then they pitch around Albert Pujols and put him on as well. Up comes very-well compensated Matt Holliday to do what he was brought to St. Louis to do: make teams pay for pitching around Pujols. He wiffs against Met reliever Ryota Igarashi. Holliday would go 0-for-5 with 3 Ks on the day before being lifted in the 11th in a double switch. He was playing the game with the flu.
10th Inning
The Cardinals load the bases with two outs in the bottom of the inning on a Schumaker walk, a Ludwick single, and a Pujols walk. Holliday fouls out to 1B. He looked sick in the two ABs I saw, and not the good sick.
11th Inning
In what will become a running theme, New York outfielder Angel Pagan becomes baserunning goat No. 1 by getting picked off first with two outs.
12th inning
This is where it gets really crazy. With two outs and Schumaker on first, Ludwick reaches on, of all things, catcher interference. For the second time in the game, Pujols is walked (semi-intentially) to load the bases with two outs. Holliday had been removed in a double switch, so due up was reliever Jason Motte, who had faced three batters in the top of the inning. At this point, LaRussa had back-up catcher Bryan Anderson, a 23-year-old rookie, as the only position player on the bench. He let Motte hit with the base loaded, a reliever with one career AB. He struck out. Anderson was a career 299/362/420 batter in 6 minor league seasons. Great hitter? Absolutely not. But better than the 99% chance of Motte striking out.
13th inning
So Motte starts his second inning of work and gets two quick fly outs. Then Rod Barajas singles. How slow is Barajas? Jerry Manuel sends in pinch runner John Maine -- a starting pitcher. So what does LaRussa do? Motte has now thrown 25 pitches (his highest total of the young season), but was working on two days rest. After letting him hit in the 12th, he pulls him to put in lefthander Dennys Reyes. The dude was playing match-ups in a scoreless game in the 12th! The move does work though; Pagan lines out.
And then LaRussa does it again the the bottom half. With one out and two strikes and Felipe Lopez batting, rookie infielder Allen Craig is throw out stealing second after Lopez strikes out. Apparently LaRussa is gunning for the longest game ever by giving away outs. Craig had was 13-for-17 stealing bases in 4 minor league seasons.
14th inning
In the bottom of the inning, Reyes retires two more batters (15 total pitches) and is removed. To be fair, Reyes usually faces 1-2 batters per game, in true LaRusa style. To also be fair, it's the 14th inning, and LaRussa has two relievers left. So of course he brings in righty Blake Hawksworth. Hawksworth gives up a single to Luis Castillo, and walks David Wright. The Mets are knocking on the door! Unfortunately the well-compensated Jason Day grounds into a fielders choice. Apparently this is not the day for overpaid LFs.
It is important to note that neither manager has used their 'best' reliever, as both closers will appear later in the game. I don't remember announcers Kenny Albers and Tim McCarver mentioning it, but Mets' closer Francisco Rodriguez would warm up almost every inning after the ninth. So Manuel and the New York coaching staff are just as dumb as LaRussa. The both saved their best relievers so they could gun for meaningless statistics.
16th inning
In the top of the inning, Pagan leads off with a single against Hawksworth. Next up, Mike Jacobs, he of the career .313 OBP, who's know primarily as a guy with pop (32 HRs in 2008 with Florida). He is asked to bunt, of course, which would be his first successful sacrifice of his 6-year major league career, and probably his first ever. I was cursing Manuel at the moment he lays down the successful sacrifice, moving Pagan to third. Despite Jacobs' atrocious 2009 for Kansas City (228/297/401), he's still hit a HR about every 20 PAs during his career, and he hits righties OK. Defensible move? Only because it worked. In other news, Jacobs was designated for assignment the very next day. The bunt was all for nothing, as Jose Reyes grounds out, and Castillo stikes out.
In the bottom of the inning, LaRussa gets a shot of caffeine and decides to finally use his last position player to bat for Hawksworth with Ludwick on second and Pujols on first. Anderson then grounds into a DP to end the inning.
17th inning
Closer sighting! Ryan Franklin pitches an inning for the Cardinals. He only faces three batters because David Wright is throw out trying to steal second. At least Wright is a good base stealer, though Yadier Molina has a cannon.
18th inning
Infielder Felipe Lopez is on the mound for the Cards! Not sure why Franklin wasn't given a second inning. He threw 18 pitches in the 17th, but I'm not sure if he warmed up multiple times, and it was his second appearance in two days. No idea why Lopez was the choice, but he pitches a scoreless inning. It starts with Henry Blanco hitting a blooper to LF, and SS Brendan Ryan making a Willie Mays catch. Lopez almost pees his pants. I think he also may have broken 70 mph on the radar gun. The best part is the 'battle' between Lopez and Mets reliever Raul Valdes. It was an amazing contest with Valdes getting an infield single. Ryan's throw gets away from Pujols, but then Valdes is thrown out trying to get to second. Holy crap!
19th inning
Another inning, another position player pitching for St. Louis. Joe Mather pinch hit in the 10th, then played CF, then played 3B, and then moved to the mound. Lopez moved to 3B -- for his second stint on the hot corner. The good news? Mather breaks 80 on the gun. The bad news? He couldn't throw a strike. The better news? The Mets only score one run because Manuel's an idiot. After Reyes walks to start the inning, Castillo sacrifices. What? A sac bunt against a friggin' outfielder? What a joke. Then LaRussa trumps Manuel's stupidity by intentionally walking Wright. The guy can't buy a strike, but hey, let's put on some more baserunners. Of course, Mather than hits Jason Bay, which might have been bad, except the ball was moving 42 mph. Jeff Franceour (the one guy in the Mets lineup who would never walk) gets Reyes home on a SF. LaRussa then intentionally walks Blanco to get to pitcher Valdes, his second AB of the game, and he grounds out to Pujols.
But the Cards strike back in their half. On comes the infamous KRod, who had apparently been warming up for like 6 hours. According to this story, the dude had been up 10 times and thrown close to 100 warm-up pitches. Manuel was determined not to let LaRussa take the title of 'dumbest manager of the day.'
But, of course, LaRussa would not strike back. Ludwick would work a walk, and then up comes the mighty Pujols. So what does Ludwick do? He freakin' gets caught stealing! Who called for that? Even if it works, they walk Pujols at that point and Kyle Lohse (a freakin' pitcher) is on deck. Let Pujols hit you morons! He's the best hitter on the planet!
Pujols then doubles, of course, and advances to thirdon a Lohse ground out. Molina singles to tie the game, in what could have been the game winning hit.
Listen, I know I'm being rough on LaRussa/Ludwick, but come on. If they pitch to Pujols, you tie the game and there's no outs. If they walk Pujols, Lohse sacrifices and you've got two runners in scoring position with one out. LaRussa is not a genius, people. More like a jester.
20th inning
Mather is out for his second inning of torture...I mean, pitching. Again, the only run he gives up is on a SF by Reyes, scoring Pagan. My hat goes off to Lopez and Mather for keeping St. Louis in the game with 75-mph fastballs.
Starter Mike Pelfrey comes in to earn his first career save, but not without drama, as he allowed a single and a walk. Pelfrey had pitched two days before -- 106 pitches in 7 shutout innings against the Rockies to pick up a win. He threw 18 pitches to save Manuel further managing, which would only lead to humiliation.
I know that managing a 20-inning game is very difficult, and it will likely wreak havoc on these two rosters for weeks to come, especially the pitching staffs. I applaud LaRussa for putting position players on the mound instead of putting starters out there, which would have screwed up his rotation and possibly risked injury.
But overall, these two managers exposed their weaknesses in the worst way. Manuel has absolutely no idea what he's doing. His management of KRod was borderline criminal, and his love for the sacrifice and stolen base shows that he doesn't understand the value of an out, or the various skill sets of his players. Where's Earl Weaver?
LaRussa? He just tries too hard. but I'd rather have him than Manuel. Though his game management was highly questionable, and he also loves the sacrifice and the stolen base way too much, at least he did nothing to jeopardize the long-term prospects of his team.
Regardless, this game entertained me in a way that no other April baseball game ever has, and I even switched over to the Ubaldo Jiminez no-hitter (thank you MLB.TV) as well. What an awesome day of baseball.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Lowell should DH against LHPs
No before you think this is another 'Ortiz is starting slow, bench the bum!' columns, it is not. I think Big Papi will be fine. Against righthanders. But the says he's not a good play against lefties any more.
From 07-09, Papi's line against lefties is 253/338/439. That's not good, and it was much worse than that last season (212/298/414). Now, Ortiz has had bad years against lefties before, and good ones. In most of his elite years, he hit lefties at a high level. But he has not been an elite player in several years. And while hitting him against a pitcher like Andy Pettite (who he's hit well in the past) is one thing, starting him against more traditional lefties is silly, especially with a very good option on the bench.
Over that same time period, Mike Lowell has hit 314/381/500 against southpaws. Why is this even a discussion?
Now, part of this may be not hurting Ortiz's ego and getting him reps against LHPs because the plan is to trade Lowell in the next couple of weeks. At this point, unless he brings something of value, I think keeping Lowell is the best option, playing him 2-3 times a week at 1B, 3B and DH.
So Lowell is an easy option at DH, especially since Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis both bar righthanded. So please, Terry, Theo, make the right choice and get Lowell some more ABs.
From 07-09, Papi's line against lefties is 253/338/439. That's not good, and it was much worse than that last season (212/298/414). Now, Ortiz has had bad years against lefties before, and good ones. In most of his elite years, he hit lefties at a high level. But he has not been an elite player in several years. And while hitting him against a pitcher like Andy Pettite (who he's hit well in the past) is one thing, starting him against more traditional lefties is silly, especially with a very good option on the bench.
Over that same time period, Mike Lowell has hit 314/381/500 against southpaws. Why is this even a discussion?
Now, part of this may be not hurting Ortiz's ego and getting him reps against LHPs because the plan is to trade Lowell in the next couple of weeks. At this point, unless he brings something of value, I think keeping Lowell is the best option, playing him 2-3 times a week at 1B, 3B and DH.
So Lowell is an easy option at DH, especially since Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis both bar righthanded. So please, Terry, Theo, make the right choice and get Lowell some more ABs.
Monday, April 5, 2010
MLB Preview: National League
NL East
1. Philadelphia (93 wins)
This team is the class of the NL. I like the lineup 1-8, the starting pitching could be fantastic, and the bullpen should be solid (even if Brad Lidge misses significant time). Howard and Utley are a murderer's row by themselves, and Roy Halladay is going to love pitching on a team that's relevant.
2. Atlanta (86)
If there's one team that could seize the NL East if the Phillies slip, it's Atlanta. I like Heyward and McClouth in the OF, Glaus should stay healthier at 1B (just two years ago he was worth more than 5 wins to the Cardinals, says Fangraphs.com), and McCann and Chipper will produce. And I like the rotation. Tommy Hansen is a perennial Cy Young candidate in the making, and they have depth.
3. Florida (85)
There's a lot to like about the Fish, but the pitching is too shallow, and I think I might be overrating them slightly. Of course, any team with Hanley Ramirez as its anchor should be OK, and if the top pitchers stay healthy, they could contend.
4. New York (77)
Last year I predicted big things for the Mets; not this year. After Johan Santana, their starting pitching is scary, as in, New York fans are going to cringe a lot. The lineup also has holes (even with the addition of JBay). This is going to be a long season, though David Wright will bounce back and have a great year.
5. Washington (66)
In five seasons of existence since moving from Montreal/San Juan, the Nationals have never finished better than 4th in the NL East. Their best season was their first, with 81 wins. Jim Bowden ran this team so poorly, spending money on players who will never be on a good Nationals team. But there is some hope. Everybody and their mother thinks Stephen Strasburg is the real deal, and Ryan Zimmerman blossomed into a superstar in 2009. Still, this is a bad team, with holes all over the place. But they should win more than 59 games (their win total two years running).
NL Central
1. St. Louis (92)
There is only one really good team in this division, and the Cardinals will cruise to another division crown (their 8th in 11 years). The pitching should be good, and Pujols anchors a decent lineup. Welcome to the playoffs again, boys.
2. Chicago (84)
Alfonso Soriano is a disaster. He has had some good seasons, where he was worth 4-5 wins. Last year he was so bad, you would have been better grabbing a random minor leaguer to replace him. (Check out his Fangraphs page.) Geovany Soto fell flat after an awesome 2008. Neither of those two are as bad as they were last year. The Cubs will rebound, but won’t be able to catch their rivals.
3. Cincinnati (80)
Semi-bold prediction: The Reds win the Central in 2011. The young lineup will rake this year, led by Votto and Bruce. The starting rotation will be decent, especially after Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman joins the rotation. They are not deep enough or good enough to contend for the playoffs in 2010, but that won’t be true in 2011.
4. Milwaukee (77)
I like the lineup. Of course, Fielder and Braun are total studs, but Weeks will stay healthy and Corey Hart won't suck as bad, so they will score a lot of runs. And much ballyhooed SS prospect Alcides Escobar will add speed and excitement to the middle infield. But the pitching, after Gallardo, is not good enough.
5. Houston (68)
Looking at the Astros active roster, the only players I would really want are Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. Kaz Matsui? Really? This is a bad team, and I don’t believe management realizes how bad.
6. Pittsburgh (65)
The Pirates last made the postseason at the beginning of my junior year of high school, 1992, with an outfield of Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke and Alex Cole. And though they have a couple of young position players that are intriguing (including Jeff Clement at 1B), they will finish 6th in the Central for the 4th year in a row.
NL West
1. Colorado (90)
The Rockies lineup is going to be really good, the right mixture of hitting and defense. Tulowitski is a stud, and Dexter Fowler is a All-Star in the making in center. The pitching is also good, and the rest of the West is mediocre.
2. Los Angeles (88)
Unfortunately a divorce may have killed this team. This is a team with a great OF, and a window to compete. But yet the Blake Dewitt-Ronnie Belliard combo will patrol 2B, Casey Blake starts at 3B, and Vincente Padilla is the opening day starter. Could they make the playoffs? Absolutely, but a few shrewd offseason moves might have made them a runaway favorite like the Cardinals.
3. Giants (82)
The pitching will be awesome. Lincecum is a freaky stud, and Cain and Zito are a good 2-3. The offense? Brutal. Besides Kung Fu Panda, there’s not a plus player on the field (and he’s a bad fielder). Again, a few shrewd offseason moves could have made them a contender.
4. Arizona (80)
The D-Backs are a cute darkhorse pick, but I don’t see it. Are they young? Absolutely. Could some of their young underperformers (I’m looking at you, Stephen Drew) break out? Totally. But too many things would have to go right, and the pitching will be bad if Webb can’t get back on the mound.
5. Padres (65)
Take a look at the Padres depth chart. Really. Take a look. This is a really bad team. A slim Matt Stairs is even coming off the bench. And yes, that’s really Jon Garland as the No. 1 starter. It will be a long season in San Diego, but at least the weather will be nice.
NLDS
Colorado over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
NLCS
Colorado over Philadelphia
World Series
Seattle over Colorado
1. Philadelphia (93 wins)
This team is the class of the NL. I like the lineup 1-8, the starting pitching could be fantastic, and the bullpen should be solid (even if Brad Lidge misses significant time). Howard and Utley are a murderer's row by themselves, and Roy Halladay is going to love pitching on a team that's relevant.
2. Atlanta (86)
If there's one team that could seize the NL East if the Phillies slip, it's Atlanta. I like Heyward and McClouth in the OF, Glaus should stay healthier at 1B (just two years ago he was worth more than 5 wins to the Cardinals, says Fangraphs.com), and McCann and Chipper will produce. And I like the rotation. Tommy Hansen is a perennial Cy Young candidate in the making, and they have depth.
3. Florida (85)
There's a lot to like about the Fish, but the pitching is too shallow, and I think I might be overrating them slightly. Of course, any team with Hanley Ramirez as its anchor should be OK, and if the top pitchers stay healthy, they could contend.
4. New York (77)
Last year I predicted big things for the Mets; not this year. After Johan Santana, their starting pitching is scary, as in, New York fans are going to cringe a lot. The lineup also has holes (even with the addition of JBay). This is going to be a long season, though David Wright will bounce back and have a great year.
5. Washington (66)
In five seasons of existence since moving from Montreal/San Juan, the Nationals have never finished better than 4th in the NL East. Their best season was their first, with 81 wins. Jim Bowden ran this team so poorly, spending money on players who will never be on a good Nationals team. But there is some hope. Everybody and their mother thinks Stephen Strasburg is the real deal, and Ryan Zimmerman blossomed into a superstar in 2009. Still, this is a bad team, with holes all over the place. But they should win more than 59 games (their win total two years running).
NL Central
1. St. Louis (92)
There is only one really good team in this division, and the Cardinals will cruise to another division crown (their 8th in 11 years). The pitching should be good, and Pujols anchors a decent lineup. Welcome to the playoffs again, boys.
2. Chicago (84)
Alfonso Soriano is a disaster. He has had some good seasons, where he was worth 4-5 wins. Last year he was so bad, you would have been better grabbing a random minor leaguer to replace him. (Check out his Fangraphs page.) Geovany Soto fell flat after an awesome 2008. Neither of those two are as bad as they were last year. The Cubs will rebound, but won’t be able to catch their rivals.
3. Cincinnati (80)
Semi-bold prediction: The Reds win the Central in 2011. The young lineup will rake this year, led by Votto and Bruce. The starting rotation will be decent, especially after Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman joins the rotation. They are not deep enough or good enough to contend for the playoffs in 2010, but that won’t be true in 2011.
4. Milwaukee (77)
I like the lineup. Of course, Fielder and Braun are total studs, but Weeks will stay healthy and Corey Hart won't suck as bad, so they will score a lot of runs. And much ballyhooed SS prospect Alcides Escobar will add speed and excitement to the middle infield. But the pitching, after Gallardo, is not good enough.
5. Houston (68)
Looking at the Astros active roster, the only players I would really want are Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. Kaz Matsui? Really? This is a bad team, and I don’t believe management realizes how bad.
6. Pittsburgh (65)
The Pirates last made the postseason at the beginning of my junior year of high school, 1992, with an outfield of Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke and Alex Cole. And though they have a couple of young position players that are intriguing (including Jeff Clement at 1B), they will finish 6th in the Central for the 4th year in a row.
NL West
1. Colorado (90)
The Rockies lineup is going to be really good, the right mixture of hitting and defense. Tulowitski is a stud, and Dexter Fowler is a All-Star in the making in center. The pitching is also good, and the rest of the West is mediocre.
2. Los Angeles (88)
Unfortunately a divorce may have killed this team. This is a team with a great OF, and a window to compete. But yet the Blake Dewitt-Ronnie Belliard combo will patrol 2B, Casey Blake starts at 3B, and Vincente Padilla is the opening day starter. Could they make the playoffs? Absolutely, but a few shrewd offseason moves might have made them a runaway favorite like the Cardinals.
3. Giants (82)
The pitching will be awesome. Lincecum is a freaky stud, and Cain and Zito are a good 2-3. The offense? Brutal. Besides Kung Fu Panda, there’s not a plus player on the field (and he’s a bad fielder). Again, a few shrewd offseason moves could have made them a contender.
4. Arizona (80)
The D-Backs are a cute darkhorse pick, but I don’t see it. Are they young? Absolutely. Could some of their young underperformers (I’m looking at you, Stephen Drew) break out? Totally. But too many things would have to go right, and the pitching will be bad if Webb can’t get back on the mound.
5. Padres (65)
Take a look at the Padres depth chart. Really. Take a look. This is a really bad team. A slim Matt Stairs is even coming off the bench. And yes, that’s really Jon Garland as the No. 1 starter. It will be a long season in San Diego, but at least the weather will be nice.
NLDS
Colorado over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
NLCS
Colorado over Philadelphia
World Series
Seattle over Colorado
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