The befuddling Dice-K experiment

This is Daisuke Matsuzaka's line this season for the Red Sox: 41 IP, 32 K, 21 BB, 3 HR, 5.49 ERA. If you want to get a little more analytical, he's got a 4.17 FIP, which means he's been a little unlucky. Regardless, he's been average at best this season, with rates of 7.0 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.

This is Dice-K's fourth season in Boston, and according to his Fangraph's page, he's been worth 8.3 wins above replacement during this period, most of it during his 'rookie' campaign of 2007, and his bizarre 18-3 2008 season. Last season was brutal (only 60 ineffective innings) and the results this year have not been good.

Dice-K was a legend in Japan, his exploits well documented. Very few major leaguers can boast a Wikipedia page as detailed and impressive as his. You can read about his amazing 250-pitch, 17-inning performance in the Japanese high school baseball championships. Or maybe you remember his 2006 and 2009 World Baseball Classic performances, playing a key role in Japan winning both championships.

The question, though, is not what Dice-K did in high school or the WBC, but what value he's been to the Sox. Yes, 2007 and 2008 were good seasons, and his rookie season helped Boston win championship (though he only pitched once in that post-season).

The Sox paid $51 million for the rights to negotiate with Dice-K, and then another $52 million to sign him through 2012. He's currently being paid $8.3 million, and he will make $10.3 million in 2011 and 2012, before becoming a free agent.

At this point, it is too early to tell, but tying up this much money in a pitcher who's averaging less than 3 WAR a season is not good. Yes, easy to look back and say that now (I did support the signing at the time), but I'm not sure the Dice-K experiment has been a success.

Besides a night when Wakefield's knuckler is off, Dice-K is by far the most frustrating pitcher on the Sox to watch. He can dominate for 2-3 innings, looking like some king of combination between Greg Maddux and Tim Lincecum, and then struggle the next, looking more like a combo between Mike Maddux and Tim Leary.

Nothing that has happened over the past four years diminishes Dice-K's Japanese legend. But his MLB career is becoming much less than that: slightly overpaid average MLB starter.