Here are some recent Red Sox major storylines and what I think about them.
The Sox are doomed and won't make the playoffs.
I covered what I thought about the Boston's playoff chances a couple weeks ago. What has happened since then? Not a lot, really. Yes, there was the exciting trading deadline where the Yankees improved themselves by importing Lance Berkman, who used to be good. Their playoff chances are about the same as they were -- not very good, but still possible. The killer blow may have been Youk's injury, especially if he's really out for a month. He's the best hitter on the team, and anytime there's more ABs for Kevin Cash, that's not a good thing. But New York is old, Tampa is vulnerable, and Boston has a good combination of pitching, defense and offense that could make a sustained run. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Certainly.
Jacoby Ellsbury is a bad teammate
Dan Shaugnessy of the Boston Globe is a master agitator, and he did it again this week but calling out Jacoby Ellsbury, questioning his heart, grit and whether he's a good teammate. The best part? He intimates that Ellsbury's teammates think he's a problem, but without any sources whatsoever. Comments by Kevin Youkilis have been overblown, and Youk even addressed those in a column on ESPNBoston.com.
Does Youk think Ellsbury is a woos? Maybe. Was there some miscommunication between management and Ellsbury about his rehab? From outside, it looks like it. But so what? This really seems like a media creation to me. Shaugnessy can't even find anyone to complain about Ellsbury off the record, so he's left to his own conjecture and smearing the reputation of a very good player who's been very good for the Sox. Let's give the guy the benefit of the doubt until we actually have something substantial to talk about.
The Red Sox should have done something more at the deadline
Really? What exactly? I mentioned previously that the biggest need was the bullpen. The starting 5 is good (especially with Beckett returning to form), the lineup is deep (before Youk's injury), and the defense is good. The Sox needed a bullpen arm and maybe a better hitting back-up outfielder to take the place of Eric Patterson, though I think those options existed internally with Ryan Kalish and Daniel Nava. And they needed healthy players.
But the price for good bullpen help was high, so Theo & Co. passed. I don't blame them. They can use some young arms (like Felix Doubront and Michael Bowden) who likely will be as effective as some mediocre National League reliever. And with about a 1-in-5 chance of making the playoffs, sending off a useful minor leaguer for a replacement-level reliever is bad management.
And let's be clear: I don't think they were deeply in on any big names. Adam Dunn? Where would he have played? His natural position is DH, and we have one of those. Lance Berkman? Please. He would have been an upgrade over Lowell, but before Youk's injury, we couldn't find a place for Lowell on the roster. And none of the 'big-name' starters were anyone the Sox should have mortgaged the future over.
What's up with all the injuries?
Randomness. It just happens. Fill in a cliche. There's really nothing to explain it, unless you believe Adrian Beltre was intentionally trying to break the ribs of Jeremy Hermida and Ellsbury. Would the Sox be in the thick of it if Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Beckett, Youkilis, Varitek, Mike Cameron, and Pedroia, had been healthy all season? Likely, but they weren't. The key thing to remember is that Theo built a good team that had a high chance of contending. Things have not worked out as planned, which happens.
Red Sox fans have stopped watching this boring team
Bill Simmons spent 1,653,345 words explaining why this team is boring. Ratings are down in Boston. Tickets are easier to come by. The reason? The team is boring.
I'll give you a simpler reason: the Sox are 6 games out of first place and Sox fans are spoiled. Since 2003, the Red Sox have only missed the playoffs once and have won two World Series. In each of those playoff seasons, Boston has won at least 95 games. Does this team lack the name power of Manny and Big Papi? Maybe, but with gritty players like Youk and Pedroia (and Boston loves players like that), and new fan favorites like Beltre and Nava and Martinez, I don't buy the boring tag. I just think the team is underachieving compared to the recent past, and Boston fans are spoiled, like Atlanta Braves fans used to be, or Yankees fans have been for a long time.
Mark my words: if the Sox go on a 12-2 run and get within 2-3 games, the team suddenly won't look very 'boring' anymore, and the roster will be about the same.
Showing posts with label red sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label red sox. Show all posts
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
The Red Sox can still smell the playoffs
Before games are played on July 27, the Red Sox sit 8 games behind the division-leading Yankees and five games behind the wild card-leading Rays. Many prognosticators had Boston, New York and Tampa as the best three teams in the American League coming into 2010, and they haven't been too far off. Boston's 56 wins trails only New York, Tampa and surprising Texas.
But can the Red Sox make up ground and get past their division rivals and into the playoffs? To answer this question, I usually turn to the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus and the MLB Odds at Coolstandings.com. The other thing I do is use my brain.
BP gives Boston an almost 25% chance of making the playoffs, with almost 20 of that coming from a wild card berth. For comparison, New York has a 91% chance. Coolstandings is a little more skeptical, giving Boston a 20% chance, with 16 of that being in the wild card. So looking at these numbers, and just using a little reason, Boston's biggest chance is making up the 5 games between it and Tampa.
But can they do that? Yes, they can. Many of Boston's walking wounded are returning, with Victor Martinez following Josh Beckett and Clay Buchhloz last night. Dustin Perdoia is likely to follow, and Jacoby Ellsbury has started rehabbing. This is a team that has seen Jeremy Hermida's .632 OPS see the most time in LF, followed by Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald. Ellsbury is very unlikely to be worse.
But the biggest problem is the bullpen. They have the worst bullpen in the AL by FIP and 3rd worst by xFIP. I don't really care if Okajima talks to reporters or not, but getting people out would be nice.
So instead of chasing Jayson Werth or an NL pitcher who might not be an upgrade over anything we have, let's go get some less expensive bullpen arms for the stretch drive, even if we only have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Remember, that's 20 points higher than Baltimore.
But can the Red Sox make up ground and get past their division rivals and into the playoffs? To answer this question, I usually turn to the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus and the MLB Odds at Coolstandings.com. The other thing I do is use my brain.
BP gives Boston an almost 25% chance of making the playoffs, with almost 20 of that coming from a wild card berth. For comparison, New York has a 91% chance. Coolstandings is a little more skeptical, giving Boston a 20% chance, with 16 of that being in the wild card. So looking at these numbers, and just using a little reason, Boston's biggest chance is making up the 5 games between it and Tampa.
But can they do that? Yes, they can. Many of Boston's walking wounded are returning, with Victor Martinez following Josh Beckett and Clay Buchhloz last night. Dustin Perdoia is likely to follow, and Jacoby Ellsbury has started rehabbing. This is a team that has seen Jeremy Hermida's .632 OPS see the most time in LF, followed by Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald. Ellsbury is very unlikely to be worse.
But the biggest problem is the bullpen. They have the worst bullpen in the AL by FIP and 3rd worst by xFIP. I don't really care if Okajima talks to reporters or not, but getting people out would be nice.
So instead of chasing Jayson Werth or an NL pitcher who might not be an upgrade over anything we have, let's go get some less expensive bullpen arms for the stretch drive, even if we only have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Remember, that's 20 points higher than Baltimore.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Why I Was Wrong About the Red Sox
A little more than a month ago, I wrote that the Rays and the Yankees couldn't be beat. Apparently I'm an idiot. You can look at the May 18, 2010, standings here. The Red Sox were 8.5 games behind the division-leading Rays, and 5 games behind the Yanks. Before games are played on June 22, Boston is tied with Tampa Bay, both teams half a game behind New York. How did this happen?
In there last 30 games, the Sox have been scorching hot, winning 22. The Yanks have been very good, winning 18, and the Rays have been poor, winning just 14. But we can dig deeper.
As of today, the most prolific offense in the American League, measured by the most runs scored. How is that possible? Going by games played, this is the most frequent lineup OF lineup with OPS+ in parentheses: Jeremy Hermida in LF (70), Darnell McDonald in CF (86), JD Drew in RF (116). Keep in mind that Hermida is an fielder at best, and McDonald is not a CF at all. Bill Hall has played a lot in the OF, including CF (though the numbers say he's been an average fielder, maybe even better than that). How can the offense be this good with this OF?
On offense it comes down to five key players, all of whom I will briefly discuss:
In there last 30 games, the Sox have been scorching hot, winning 22. The Yanks have been very good, winning 18, and the Rays have been poor, winning just 14. But we can dig deeper.
As of today, the most prolific offense in the American League, measured by the most runs scored. How is that possible? Going by games played, this is the most frequent lineup OF lineup with OPS+ in parentheses: Jeremy Hermida in LF (70), Darnell McDonald in CF (86), JD Drew in RF (116). Keep in mind that Hermida is an fielder at best, and McDonald is not a CF at all. Bill Hall has played a lot in the OF, including CF (though the numbers say he's been an average fielder, maybe even better than that). How can the offense be this good with this OF?
On offense it comes down to five key players, all of whom I will briefly discuss:
- Kevin Youkilis. He's awesome. He leads the team in most meaningful statistics. According to Fangraphs, he's the second best hitter in baseball this year. He runs the bases well, hits for power, takes his walks, fields his position well. It really irks me sometimes when I hear some Sox fans say that our lineup isn't what it used to be. Youk may not be Manny in his prime, but he's far superior to Jason Bay, and he's having an all-time awesome season. Open your eyes people.
- Adrian Beltre. All of you who thought that by mid-June Beltre would be a Top 15 hitter in the AL, raise your hands? Yeah, me neither. I think his BA with come down and so will his value at the plate (his BABIP is too high at .373), but I also think his fielding will get better. Either way, the signing has been a success (except for him breaking ribs).
- David Ortiz. Two months ago, I discussed trading for a Big Papi replacement. That would have been dumb. The guy is hitting 260/366/555. He's got 15 HRs, the most he's ever had by this point in a season. There's nothing fluky about his numbers. I am sorry Big Papi; can you forgive me?
- Dustin Pedroia. Another very good season from Pedroia, including his usual stellar glove work. Solid.
- Victor Martinez. He started off slow, but he's rebounded nicely. He's pounding LHP, and struggling a bit vs. RHP (which I think is an anomaly). I think he'll come back to earth against LHPs, and will improve against RHPs.
To sum up on the lineup, this is the best lineup in baseball (at least it has been thus far). It may not be the flashiest, but it has been the best.
Pitching has been a two-sided story. Again referencing Fangraphs, Boston has the 3rd best starting rotation in the league, thanks to awesome pitching by Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Dice-K and Lackey have been average, Wakefield has been OK, and Beckett has been awful.
Unfortunately, the bullpen is the other side of that coin. They have been awful, 2nd worst in the league, only bettering Baltimore. Do you know who's been above-average in the pen this year? Daniel Bard. That's it. Papelbon has been shaky, and the rest of the bullpen is very questionable.
But here we sit on June 22, and the Sox are in it. The Rays lineup looks average, and the young pitching is regressing a little. And the Yankees don't look so unbeatable. So forget everything I wrote a month ago about the Sox being done and go back to my AL preview. The Sox are going to make the playoffs.
Friday, June 4, 2010
The befuddling Dice-K experiment
This is Daisuke Matsuzaka's line this season for the Red Sox: 41 IP, 32 K, 21 BB, 3 HR, 5.49 ERA. If you want to get a little more analytical, he's got a 4.17 FIP, which means he's been a little unlucky. Regardless, he's been average at best this season, with rates of 7.0 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.
This is Dice-K's fourth season in Boston, and according to his Fangraph's page, he's been worth 8.3 wins above replacement during this period, most of it during his 'rookie' campaign of 2007, and his bizarre 18-3 2008 season. Last season was brutal (only 60 ineffective innings) and the results this year have not been good.
Dice-K was a legend in Japan, his exploits well documented. Very few major leaguers can boast a Wikipedia page as detailed and impressive as his. You can read about his amazing 250-pitch, 17-inning performance in the Japanese high school baseball championships. Or maybe you remember his 2006 and 2009 World Baseball Classic performances, playing a key role in Japan winning both championships.
The question, though, is not what Dice-K did in high school or the WBC, but what value he's been to the Sox. Yes, 2007 and 2008 were good seasons, and his rookie season helped Boston win championship (though he only pitched once in that post-season).
The Sox paid $51 million for the rights to negotiate with Dice-K, and then another $52 million to sign him through 2012. He's currently being paid $8.3 million, and he will make $10.3 million in 2011 and 2012, before becoming a free agent.
At this point, it is too early to tell, but tying up this much money in a pitcher who's averaging less than 3 WAR a season is not good. Yes, easy to look back and say that now (I did support the signing at the time), but I'm not sure the Dice-K experiment has been a success.
Besides a night when Wakefield's knuckler is off, Dice-K is by far the most frustrating pitcher on the Sox to watch. He can dominate for 2-3 innings, looking like some king of combination between Greg Maddux and Tim Lincecum, and then struggle the next, looking more like a combo between Mike Maddux and Tim Leary.
Nothing that has happened over the past four years diminishes Dice-K's Japanese legend. But his MLB career is becoming much less than that: slightly overpaid average MLB starter.
This is Dice-K's fourth season in Boston, and according to his Fangraph's page, he's been worth 8.3 wins above replacement during this period, most of it during his 'rookie' campaign of 2007, and his bizarre 18-3 2008 season. Last season was brutal (only 60 ineffective innings) and the results this year have not been good.
Dice-K was a legend in Japan, his exploits well documented. Very few major leaguers can boast a Wikipedia page as detailed and impressive as his. You can read about his amazing 250-pitch, 17-inning performance in the Japanese high school baseball championships. Or maybe you remember his 2006 and 2009 World Baseball Classic performances, playing a key role in Japan winning both championships.
The question, though, is not what Dice-K did in high school or the WBC, but what value he's been to the Sox. Yes, 2007 and 2008 were good seasons, and his rookie season helped Boston win championship (though he only pitched once in that post-season).
The Sox paid $51 million for the rights to negotiate with Dice-K, and then another $52 million to sign him through 2012. He's currently being paid $8.3 million, and he will make $10.3 million in 2011 and 2012, before becoming a free agent.
At this point, it is too early to tell, but tying up this much money in a pitcher who's averaging less than 3 WAR a season is not good. Yes, easy to look back and say that now (I did support the signing at the time), but I'm not sure the Dice-K experiment has been a success.
Besides a night when Wakefield's knuckler is off, Dice-K is by far the most frustrating pitcher on the Sox to watch. He can dominate for 2-3 innings, looking like some king of combination between Greg Maddux and Tim Lincecum, and then struggle the next, looking more like a combo between Mike Maddux and Tim Leary.
Nothing that has happened over the past four years diminishes Dice-K's Japanese legend. But his MLB career is becoming much less than that: slightly overpaid average MLB starter.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Papelbon is losing it
Red Sox Nation is an unforgiving bunch. I used to give some of my Philadelphia Phillies fan friends grief for the fact that Mike Schmidt was booed when he played for the there. But now I've heard the Fenway 'Faithful' boo David Ortiz, one of the heroes of two championship teams, an easy winner for best Red Sox DH of all-time. I may have suggested earlier this season benching Ortiz, but I would never boo the man. Actually, I'm against booing your own team unless someone does something like attack an ump or go into the crowd and start throwing haymakers.
Now the Nation is turning on Jonathan Papelbon, the all-time Red Sox saves leader and the man who dominated in 2007 on the way to Boston's second title of the past decade.
But 2009 and 2010 have been a different story. Last season Paps had a stellar 1.85 ERA, but it was a mirage. His walk rate was a high 3.18/9 while his K rate remained around 10. And his fastball went from a massively effective pitch to only a very good one. And if you watched most of his appearances (which I did in 2009) he was missing his old dominance.
(All the stats for today's discussion comes from Papelbon's player page at Fangraphs.)
This season has been worse, encapsulated by his two appearances this week against the Yanks. On Monday he gave up two homers, the first time he's done that since he was converted full-time to a reliever, including one to Marcus Thames for heaven's sake. And then Tuesday he walked a tight-rope again. He looks even shakier than he did last year, bring back bad flashes of Bob Stanley.
The numbers bear this out. Besides currently being a below-replacement reliever this season(yikes!), his fastball is not just not dominant anymore. His slider and splitter have been very effective, but seeing as though he's a dominant fastball pitcher (over his career he's thrown it 78% of the time), getting his splitter to be effective is great, but an average fastball will end his days as an effective closer.
Many Sox fans thought Papelbon was Boston's answer to Mariano Rivera, but unless he figures it out and makes the right adjustments, he's more likely to be Boston's version of Francisco Rodriguez: a few dominant seasons, but best to let him go before he gets too expensive.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Rays and Yanks can't be beat
A month ago I wrote about how the Red Sox still had a chance. Am I completely writing them off? Certainly not. One year ago today the Yankees were 4.5 games behind first-place Toronto. The Blue Jays imploded, and the Yanks went on to win the title. So in theory, the Sox could come back.
Except for two minor problems: The Rays and the Yankees. When I previewed the American League, I underestimated the Rays for one reason: their pitching. According to Fangraphs, they have the second best pitching staff in the American League. Their lineup is just OK, but that pitching is phenomenal, with young starters David Price and Jeff Niemann making the leap.
And the Yanks? That lineup is unreal so far. Even with Texeira struggling, Baseball Prospectus has the Yanks as, by far, the best offensive team in baseball. There's not weakness, especially hwne you have you back-up catcher hitting like .800.
What has foiled the Sox? I know that I and others have hounded the offense, particularly Big Papi and Victor Martinez. But the offense has been the fourth best in the league; the pitching has failed them. Beckett and Lackey have been average. Papelbon and most of the rest of the bullpen (with the exception of Bard) has been shaky.
Add to that an average defense, and you have a team that will have a very hard time catching the Rays and Yankees, as much as I hate typing that. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think Tampa and New York are the two best teams in baseball, and that the Red Sox will be watching the 2010 postseason from home.
Except for two minor problems: The Rays and the Yankees. When I previewed the American League, I underestimated the Rays for one reason: their pitching. According to Fangraphs, they have the second best pitching staff in the American League. Their lineup is just OK, but that pitching is phenomenal, with young starters David Price and Jeff Niemann making the leap.
And the Yanks? That lineup is unreal so far. Even with Texeira struggling, Baseball Prospectus has the Yanks as, by far, the best offensive team in baseball. There's not weakness, especially hwne you have you back-up catcher hitting like .800.
What has foiled the Sox? I know that I and others have hounded the offense, particularly Big Papi and Victor Martinez. But the offense has been the fourth best in the league; the pitching has failed them. Beckett and Lackey have been average. Papelbon and most of the rest of the bullpen (with the exception of Bard) has been shaky.
Add to that an average defense, and you have a team that will have a very hard time catching the Rays and Yankees, as much as I hate typing that. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think Tampa and New York are the two best teams in baseball, and that the Red Sox will be watching the 2010 postseason from home.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
The Fall of Big Papi
Rumors are swirling around the world wide web that the very slow start of David Ortiz might force the Red Sox to release the formerly feared slugger and go find another DH. Bill Simmons recently discussed with Jonah Kerri on a podcast that the Red Sox really need a big-bopping left-handed bat to complement the three top hitters on the Sox, Youk (R), Pedroia (R), and Martinez (S).
Now I hate to speak of Big Papi as if he's already dead, but I'm going to. Here are my thoughts on hitters (inside the organization and out) who the Sox could add if Theo & Co. decide that the ship has sailed on his career.
Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox (AA)
Going into 2009, Anderson was the wunder-hitting prospect of the Red Sox system, a 20 year-old lefty bat destined for Fenway greatness. In 163 PAs at AA Portland, he hit 316/436/526. By 2010 or 2011, he would be with the big club, Youk moving over to 3B with Lars taking over 1B.
But then 2009 happened. Anderson spent the entire season in Portland, 522 PAs, with a bad 233/328/388. His patience remained, but everything else about his hitting seemed to disappear. But remember: He was 21. So he started 2010 in Portland again, and in 67 PAs he's hitting 328/388/672. He's unlikely to maintain that power level, but I'm hopeful this is a sign of progression. I really like Anderson, and I think he's the long-term solution at 1B/DH.
Adam's reco: Not sure he's ready, but if other options don't pan out, they should give him a shot.
Adam Dunn, 1B-OF, Washington Nationals
Check out his Fangraphs page. Dunn is in an incredibly consistent hitter. You will get a low batting average, high OBP and pop. And he sucks in the field. His UZR ratings in the OF are brutal, and if you buy his 2009 UZR at 1B, he's the worst first sacker in the history of the universe.
Of course, if he's replacing Ortiz, his positional deficiencies would be eliminated, except for occasional adventure-filled starts in the field. DH is Dunn's natural position, and the Nationals should leverage that and flip him to the AL for a couple of useful prospects.
Reco: Obviously I think this is good idea. And you could still use Lowell as the DH against particularly tough southpaws.
Paul Konerko, 1B-DH, Chicago White Sox
I don't think the White Sox will be interested in flipping Konerko anytime soon, but if the White Sox fall out of contention by midseason (which they will), the prospective free agent will become trade bait. Konerko does not hit the consistently level of Dunn, but he's been pretty consistent in his career. Decent batting average, decent OBP, decent to great pop. But he is a right-handed batter, and I'm not sure he's a better hitter than Lowell.
Reco: I would pass. Lowell or Anderson would be better options.
Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
On the North side of Chicago, there's another right-handed free-agent-to-be. Lee is an enigma; in 06 and 08, he was just OK, and he excelled in 07 and 09. He's off to a slow start this season, which fits with his recent even/odd trend. He's also a decent fielder, so that gives him value someone like Dunn wouldn't have.
Would the Cubs part with him? If they fall out of contention, they might. But their payroll in 2010 is $144 million (according to Cot's Contracts), so I think they will be reluctant to unload Lee unless they are way out of contention.
Reco: The Sox should keep an eye on this one, but I wouldn't count on him being available. But if he was, he would be a major upgrade over Ortiz and Lowell.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland
Now, I am not putting his name on to piss off Cleveland fans. As I was perusing rosters, his name intrigued me. He had a poor, injury-filled 2009. But from 05-08, this guy was was between 5-7.5 WAR a season. With the current injuries in the Boston outfield, Sizemore could fill in on a temporary basis at any OF position. And when everyone was healthy, they could rotate DH to keep everyone healthy and fresh.
Of course, Sizemore is under team control through 2012, so Cleveland would be very reluctant to move him (especially after unloading C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in the past two years).
Reco: If I was Theo I would ask, but I think the answer would be no, and the cost would be too high.
Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, Houston Astros
This continues my theme of older firstbasemen. Berkman is a switch-hitter who, like Lee, has mixed good and very good season recently. He will likely give you a .400 OBP and some pop. Like some of the other options, he is much better against RHP than LHP, so Lowell could be kept for a platoon.
His contract has a club option for 2011. The Astros always believe they are in it, so unless they are way out of it, it's likely they won't be inclined to deal the face of the franchise.
Reco: I think Berkman would be a decent fit, but I think the changes of the Astros parting ways with him are close to zero.
Price Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
After the ridiculous extension the Phillies just handed out to Ryan Howard, I think Prince Fielder is going to get a ton in arbitration in 2011. Would the Brewers think about moving him? Maybe, if they fall out of contention. He is not going to sign a discounted extension like Ryan Braun, especially if some team is going to overpay him like Philly did with Howard.
In four major league seasons, Fielder has sandwiched two very good seasons with two mediocre ones. Like Dunn, his natural position is probably DH, so a move to the AL is probably good for his long-term career prospects.
Reco: He will cost a lot if Milwaukee falls out of the race. I would ask, but quickly walk away if the price escalated above my comfort zone.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
I couldn't write a list like this without including Gonzalez. Now, we all know he's great hitter, though I think his greatness has been overblown a little bit. The Boston press corps has been selling him like the lefthanded Albert Pujols, which he is not. Still, he's very good.
Don't listen to what Padres management is saying in the press; they will trade him, it's just a matter of when.
Reco: It's obvious the Sox are flirting with a Gonzalez trade, and that would be great, but I think the price is going to be too high.
Final Recommendation
If Sox management decides to let Ortiz go, I think bringing up Lars Anderson and seeing what he's got at this point should be the first option. And if he doesn't hold up, I would pursue Gonzalez, Dunn or Berkman. And I do think, as sad as it makes me, that Big Papi's days in Boston are numbered.
Now I hate to speak of Big Papi as if he's already dead, but I'm going to. Here are my thoughts on hitters (inside the organization and out) who the Sox could add if Theo & Co. decide that the ship has sailed on his career.
Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox (AA)
Going into 2009, Anderson was the wunder-hitting prospect of the Red Sox system, a 20 year-old lefty bat destined for Fenway greatness. In 163 PAs at AA Portland, he hit 316/436/526. By 2010 or 2011, he would be with the big club, Youk moving over to 3B with Lars taking over 1B.
But then 2009 happened. Anderson spent the entire season in Portland, 522 PAs, with a bad 233/328/388. His patience remained, but everything else about his hitting seemed to disappear. But remember: He was 21. So he started 2010 in Portland again, and in 67 PAs he's hitting 328/388/672. He's unlikely to maintain that power level, but I'm hopeful this is a sign of progression. I really like Anderson, and I think he's the long-term solution at 1B/DH.
Adam's reco: Not sure he's ready, but if other options don't pan out, they should give him a shot.
Adam Dunn, 1B-OF, Washington Nationals
Check out his Fangraphs page. Dunn is in an incredibly consistent hitter. You will get a low batting average, high OBP and pop. And he sucks in the field. His UZR ratings in the OF are brutal, and if you buy his 2009 UZR at 1B, he's the worst first sacker in the history of the universe.
Of course, if he's replacing Ortiz, his positional deficiencies would be eliminated, except for occasional adventure-filled starts in the field. DH is Dunn's natural position, and the Nationals should leverage that and flip him to the AL for a couple of useful prospects.
Reco: Obviously I think this is good idea. And you could still use Lowell as the DH against particularly tough southpaws.
Paul Konerko, 1B-DH, Chicago White Sox
I don't think the White Sox will be interested in flipping Konerko anytime soon, but if the White Sox fall out of contention by midseason (which they will), the prospective free agent will become trade bait. Konerko does not hit the consistently level of Dunn, but he's been pretty consistent in his career. Decent batting average, decent OBP, decent to great pop. But he is a right-handed batter, and I'm not sure he's a better hitter than Lowell.
Reco: I would pass. Lowell or Anderson would be better options.
Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
On the North side of Chicago, there's another right-handed free-agent-to-be. Lee is an enigma; in 06 and 08, he was just OK, and he excelled in 07 and 09. He's off to a slow start this season, which fits with his recent even/odd trend. He's also a decent fielder, so that gives him value someone like Dunn wouldn't have.
Would the Cubs part with him? If they fall out of contention, they might. But their payroll in 2010 is $144 million (according to Cot's Contracts), so I think they will be reluctant to unload Lee unless they are way out of contention.
Reco: The Sox should keep an eye on this one, but I wouldn't count on him being available. But if he was, he would be a major upgrade over Ortiz and Lowell.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland
Now, I am not putting his name on to piss off Cleveland fans. As I was perusing rosters, his name intrigued me. He had a poor, injury-filled 2009. But from 05-08, this guy was was between 5-7.5 WAR a season. With the current injuries in the Boston outfield, Sizemore could fill in on a temporary basis at any OF position. And when everyone was healthy, they could rotate DH to keep everyone healthy and fresh.
Of course, Sizemore is under team control through 2012, so Cleveland would be very reluctant to move him (especially after unloading C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in the past two years).
Reco: If I was Theo I would ask, but I think the answer would be no, and the cost would be too high.
Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, Houston Astros
This continues my theme of older firstbasemen. Berkman is a switch-hitter who, like Lee, has mixed good and very good season recently. He will likely give you a .400 OBP and some pop. Like some of the other options, he is much better against RHP than LHP, so Lowell could be kept for a platoon.
His contract has a club option for 2011. The Astros always believe they are in it, so unless they are way out of it, it's likely they won't be inclined to deal the face of the franchise.
Reco: I think Berkman would be a decent fit, but I think the changes of the Astros parting ways with him are close to zero.
Price Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
After the ridiculous extension the Phillies just handed out to Ryan Howard, I think Prince Fielder is going to get a ton in arbitration in 2011. Would the Brewers think about moving him? Maybe, if they fall out of contention. He is not going to sign a discounted extension like Ryan Braun, especially if some team is going to overpay him like Philly did with Howard.
In four major league seasons, Fielder has sandwiched two very good seasons with two mediocre ones. Like Dunn, his natural position is probably DH, so a move to the AL is probably good for his long-term career prospects.
Reco: He will cost a lot if Milwaukee falls out of the race. I would ask, but quickly walk away if the price escalated above my comfort zone.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
I couldn't write a list like this without including Gonzalez. Now, we all know he's great hitter, though I think his greatness has been overblown a little bit. The Boston press corps has been selling him like the lefthanded Albert Pujols, which he is not. Still, he's very good.
Don't listen to what Padres management is saying in the press; they will trade him, it's just a matter of when.
Reco: It's obvious the Sox are flirting with a Gonzalez trade, and that would be great, but I think the price is going to be too high.
Final Recommendation
If Sox management decides to let Ortiz go, I think bringing up Lars Anderson and seeing what he's got at this point should be the first option. And if he doesn't hold up, I would pursue Gonzalez, Dunn or Berkman. And I do think, as sad as it makes me, that Big Papi's days in Boston are numbered.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
The Red Sox can compete in AL East
Last night my dad asked, "What's up with the Sox?" I've read headlines asking if the Red Sox can compete with the Rays and the Yankees. And certainly fans are anxious about the mediocre start, which includes some poor hitting, fielding and pitching.
Just a few weeks ago the Red Sox were a fashionable choice to make the playoffs, and I agreed with many other prognosticators. Very little has changed in my estimation. Let's throw some reality on this start.
AL Easy Standings (April 19, 2010)
W L GB
Tampa Bay 10 3 -
New York 9 3 .5
Toronto 8 6 2.5
Boston 4 9 6
Baltimore 2 12 8.5
Not good, right? Well let's look at last year, same time frame.
AL East Standings (April 19, 2009)
W L GB
Toronto 10 4 -
Boston 7 6 2.5
New York 7 6 2.5
Baltimore 6 7 3.5
Tampa Bay 5 8 4.5
The standings looked nothing like this at the end of the year, with New York and Boston dominating, and Toronto fading. Also, the Red Sox won 8 straight against the Yankees last season, and the media jumped on that. The season series finished even at 9-9, so making too much about this Tampa Bay sweep is not prudent.
Are there some areas of concern? Sure. I would list them in this order.
Just a few weeks ago the Red Sox were a fashionable choice to make the playoffs, and I agreed with many other prognosticators. Very little has changed in my estimation. Let's throw some reality on this start.
AL Easy Standings (April 19, 2010)
W L GB
Tampa Bay 10 3 -
New York 9 3 .5
Toronto 8 6 2.5
Boston 4 9 6
Baltimore 2 12 8.5
Not good, right? Well let's look at last year, same time frame.
AL East Standings (April 19, 2009)
W L GB
Toronto 10 4 -
Boston 7 6 2.5
New York 7 6 2.5
Baltimore 6 7 3.5
Tampa Bay 5 8 4.5
The standings looked nothing like this at the end of the year, with New York and Boston dominating, and Toronto fading. Also, the Red Sox won 8 straight against the Yankees last season, and the media jumped on that. The season series finished even at 9-9, so making too much about this Tampa Bay sweep is not prudent.
Are there some areas of concern? Sure. I would list them in this order.
- Outfield health. Mike Cameron is on the DL, Ellsbury probably should have been. It doesn't seem anyone knows when the OF will be at full strength again.
- John Lackey. In this piece on Fangraphs.com, author Jack Moore mentions that, through just his first two starts, he'd pitched differently than he has in the past and that his velocity was down. Obviously Monday's result enforced potential problems with Lackey.
- The DH spot. David Ortiz is struggling, and I've already made my case for a DH platoon with Mike Lowell. Epstein and Francona need to figure this out in the next 4-6 weeks.
- The defense. It's way too early to say whether the defensive changes have been successful or not. I've watched most of the games, and Cameron has not played well defensively, Ellsbury looks tentative going toward the wall in LF, and Tony Massarotti in the Boston Globe says Scutaro looks a little limited going to his left. Just something to watch.
As of April 19, 2010, I have no reason to believe the Red Sox will not make the playoffs. They are in a division with two other very good teams, so they may have a decent season and still miss the playoffs, but I don't see a sub-.500 team.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Lowell should DH against LHPs
No before you think this is another 'Ortiz is starting slow, bench the bum!' columns, it is not. I think Big Papi will be fine. Against righthanders. But the says he's not a good play against lefties any more.
From 07-09, Papi's line against lefties is 253/338/439. That's not good, and it was much worse than that last season (212/298/414). Now, Ortiz has had bad years against lefties before, and good ones. In most of his elite years, he hit lefties at a high level. But he has not been an elite player in several years. And while hitting him against a pitcher like Andy Pettite (who he's hit well in the past) is one thing, starting him against more traditional lefties is silly, especially with a very good option on the bench.
Over that same time period, Mike Lowell has hit 314/381/500 against southpaws. Why is this even a discussion?
Now, part of this may be not hurting Ortiz's ego and getting him reps against LHPs because the plan is to trade Lowell in the next couple of weeks. At this point, unless he brings something of value, I think keeping Lowell is the best option, playing him 2-3 times a week at 1B, 3B and DH.
So Lowell is an easy option at DH, especially since Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis both bar righthanded. So please, Terry, Theo, make the right choice and get Lowell some more ABs.
From 07-09, Papi's line against lefties is 253/338/439. That's not good, and it was much worse than that last season (212/298/414). Now, Ortiz has had bad years against lefties before, and good ones. In most of his elite years, he hit lefties at a high level. But he has not been an elite player in several years. And while hitting him against a pitcher like Andy Pettite (who he's hit well in the past) is one thing, starting him against more traditional lefties is silly, especially with a very good option on the bench.
Over that same time period, Mike Lowell has hit 314/381/500 against southpaws. Why is this even a discussion?
Now, part of this may be not hurting Ortiz's ego and getting him reps against LHPs because the plan is to trade Lowell in the next couple of weeks. At this point, unless he brings something of value, I think keeping Lowell is the best option, playing him 2-3 times a week at 1B, 3B and DH.
So Lowell is an easy option at DH, especially since Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis both bar righthanded. So please, Terry, Theo, make the right choice and get Lowell some more ABs.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Big Papi or Lowell
In a recent post, Tony Massarotti at the Boston Globe intimated that Mike Lowell might be a better solution at DH than David Ortiz. Here's the money quote:
"...but remember that Lowell finishing 2009 with a better batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage than David Ortiz. And even if Lowell has range at third base, he still has Hall of Fame hands that make him a better and more versatile defensive option than Ortiz."
So is Mazz correct? Is Lowell a better roster option than Big Papi? Well, his last point about defensive flexibility is a good one. If Lowell is healthy, he'd be a good back-up at third, and I would guess he'd be a good defensively at first (again assuming he's healthy). Ortiz is a defensive liability at first each time he takes the field (usually only in some interleague games).
But as a hitter? According to fangraphs.com (and in addition the comments made by Mazz), in 2009, Lowell was a superior bat to Ortiz (using Park Adjusted Runs Above Replacement as the metric): 5.3 to 3.5. Not a huge difference. Overall on Wins Above Replacement, Lowell was a little better: 1.2 to 0.8
But in 2008, the gap was even wider (WAR: 3.2 to 2.0 for Lowell). Lowell had a terrific year with the glove, but Ortiz was more valuable with the bat, though not by a huge margin. Of course, if you go back to 06-07, Ortiz was clearly more valuable, and substantially with the bat.
But this isn't 2007, and though Big Papi turned it on after those first few miserable months, he is not the basher of old. Depending on how the roster positions fall out, it might be better for the Sox to carry Lowell as the DH and let Ortiz go.
I hate to say it, but Mazz might be right.
"...but remember that Lowell finishing 2009 with a better batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage than David Ortiz. And even if Lowell has range at third base, he still has Hall of Fame hands that make him a better and more versatile defensive option than Ortiz."
So is Mazz correct? Is Lowell a better roster option than Big Papi? Well, his last point about defensive flexibility is a good one. If Lowell is healthy, he'd be a good back-up at third, and I would guess he'd be a good defensively at first (again assuming he's healthy). Ortiz is a defensive liability at first each time he takes the field (usually only in some interleague games).
But as a hitter? According to fangraphs.com (and in addition the comments made by Mazz), in 2009, Lowell was a superior bat to Ortiz (using Park Adjusted Runs Above Replacement as the metric): 5.3 to 3.5. Not a huge difference. Overall on Wins Above Replacement, Lowell was a little better: 1.2 to 0.8
But in 2008, the gap was even wider (WAR: 3.2 to 2.0 for Lowell). Lowell had a terrific year with the glove, but Ortiz was more valuable with the bat, though not by a huge margin. Of course, if you go back to 06-07, Ortiz was clearly more valuable, and substantially with the bat.
But this isn't 2007, and though Big Papi turned it on after those first few miserable months, he is not the basher of old. Depending on how the roster positions fall out, it might be better for the Sox to carry Lowell as the DH and let Ortiz go.
I hate to say it, but Mazz might be right.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
I will miss Nomar
Nomar Garciaparra is my favorite baseball player of all time.
Here are my favorite players (an incomplete list, to be sure): Nomar, Josh Gibson (I’ve read a lot about him), Kirby Puckett, Will Clark, Roger Clemens (until he went psycho), Barry Bonds, Orel Hershieser, Mo Vaughn, Dwight Evans, and David Ortiz. You could probably add Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis to the list.
Nomar stormed onto the scene in 1997 as a ROY, and didn’t slow down for four seasons. In 98, 99 and 2000, he was one of the best offensive players in the game. The argument seems a little silly now, but Nomar was the best AL shortstop at the time. No really. Check this out:
Name OPS+ MVP Finish
1998
Nomar 140 2nd
ARod 136 9th
Jeter 127 3rd
1999
Nomar 153 7th
ARod 134 15th
Jeter 153 6th
2000
Nomar 155 9th
ARod 162 3rd
Jeter 128 10th
I highlighted who I believe was the best shortstop each season, with Nomar winning twice. None of the three were elite defenders, but during the time period Nomar edged ARod, with Jeter being one of the most overrated fielders of my lifetime.
But after the 2000 season, Nomar dropped off dramatically due to injuries. His OPS+ for his next two full seasons (02 and 03): 127, 121. He was still a great SS, and an All-Star both of those seasons. But he was no longer an elite player like her had been for his 3-season peak.
And then came 2004. Dan Shaughnessy shamelessly trashes Nomar in the Boston Globe, remembering Nomar’s divorce from the Sox with great aplomb. Shaughnessy always disliked Nomar, because Nomar didn’t like the press. Luckily Bob Ryan redeems the Globe’s coverage with a much more realistic piece.
Regardless, 2004 tainted Nomar’s legacy in Boston. Was he really hurt? Only he can be sure. Would Boston have won the World Series without trading him? Impossible to know. But as a huge Nomar fan, it was bittersweet to win the title in 2004 without Nomar, who had performed well in three postseasons (98-00).
I don’t believe Nomar will ever sniff the Hall of Fame; his rate numbers are some of the best ever put out there in the modern era by a shortstop, but his counting stats are low. I could make an argument that he still belongs, but I’m too much of a homer for any of you to take me seriously.
Regardless, he will always be one of my favorite players. The way he intensely played the field. The way he swung at bad pitches, and racked out doubles. His timely ability to get a steal when the team needed it.
So in honor of Nomar, I will be wearing my Nomar shirt on Opening Day, proud to have witnessed out of the great runs of any player to put on a Red Sox (or any other) uniform.
Here are my favorite players (an incomplete list, to be sure): Nomar, Josh Gibson (I’ve read a lot about him), Kirby Puckett, Will Clark, Roger Clemens (until he went psycho), Barry Bonds, Orel Hershieser, Mo Vaughn, Dwight Evans, and David Ortiz. You could probably add Joe Mauer and Kevin Youkilis to the list.
Nomar stormed onto the scene in 1997 as a ROY, and didn’t slow down for four seasons. In 98, 99 and 2000, he was one of the best offensive players in the game. The argument seems a little silly now, but Nomar was the best AL shortstop at the time. No really. Check this out:
Name OPS+ MVP Finish
1998
Nomar 140 2nd
ARod 136 9th
Jeter 127 3rd
1999
Nomar 153 7th
ARod 134 15th
Jeter 153 6th
2000
Nomar 155 9th
ARod 162 3rd
Jeter 128 10th
I highlighted who I believe was the best shortstop each season, with Nomar winning twice. None of the three were elite defenders, but during the time period Nomar edged ARod, with Jeter being one of the most overrated fielders of my lifetime.
But after the 2000 season, Nomar dropped off dramatically due to injuries. His OPS+ for his next two full seasons (02 and 03): 127, 121. He was still a great SS, and an All-Star both of those seasons. But he was no longer an elite player like her had been for his 3-season peak.
And then came 2004. Dan Shaughnessy shamelessly trashes Nomar in the Boston Globe, remembering Nomar’s divorce from the Sox with great aplomb. Shaughnessy always disliked Nomar, because Nomar didn’t like the press. Luckily Bob Ryan redeems the Globe’s coverage with a much more realistic piece.
Regardless, 2004 tainted Nomar’s legacy in Boston. Was he really hurt? Only he can be sure. Would Boston have won the World Series without trading him? Impossible to know. But as a huge Nomar fan, it was bittersweet to win the title in 2004 without Nomar, who had performed well in three postseasons (98-00).
I don’t believe Nomar will ever sniff the Hall of Fame; his rate numbers are some of the best ever put out there in the modern era by a shortstop, but his counting stats are low. I could make an argument that he still belongs, but I’m too much of a homer for any of you to take me seriously.
Regardless, he will always be one of my favorite players. The way he intensely played the field. The way he swung at bad pitches, and racked out doubles. His timely ability to get a steal when the team needed it.
So in honor of Nomar, I will be wearing my Nomar shirt on Opening Day, proud to have witnessed out of the great runs of any player to put on a Red Sox (or any other) uniform.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
State of the Sox
I will start off by saying that I am a fan of the recent moves. I love Jason Bay, but not at the dollars and contract length being bandied about. I’m a huge Matt Holliday fan, but not at Teixiera-like money. And I’ve always been a big fan of Mike Cameron (power pat, good OBP, great defense), so I’m happy to see him join the Sox.
I’m a little mixed on John Lackey. He’s definitely a good pitcher, and I think he should still be good in 5 years. But $80 million good? I’m not sure. To me (like Beckett), he’s really a No. 2 pitcher who sometimes moonlights as a No. 1. But Lester is the No. 1 in Beantown, and Beckett and Lackey will be Nos. 2a and 2b.
I discussed my view of the Scutaro signing in my last post.
So how do the Sox look if the season started today?
Position Players
C Victor Martinez (+ offense, - defense)
1B Casey Kotchman (- offense, + defense)
2B Dustin Pedroia (+ +)
3B Kevin Youkilis (+ +)
SS Marco Scutaro (+ +)
LF Mike Cameron (+ +)
CF Jacoby Ellsbury (+ +)
RF JD Drew (+ +)
DH David Ortiz (-)
Bench
C Jason Varitek (- -)
INF Jed Lowrie (- -)
Jeremy Hermida (- +)
I’ve read a lot of naysayers say how much worse this lineup looks without Bay. I don’t see it that way. Cameron is an awesome defender, Bay wasn’t very good. Yes, Bay is the superior hitter (better on-base skills), but the difference is not that drastic.
Still not sure what Varitek is doing on this team. He’s a defensive liability, and he can’t hit anymore. Yes, he owns a catcher’s mitt, but I would have preferred a minor leaguer with an arm. Or at least a catcher who can hit.
Starters
Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Dice K
Clay Buchholz
Bullpen
Papelbon
Okajima
Daniel Bard
R. Ramirez
The bullpen is still a work in progress, but the rotation is awesome! Dice K and Buchholz may become trade bait, but I’ll take the Boston top 3 over any group in baseball.
If you follow the hot stove rumor mill, Kotchman is unlikely to start the season at 1B (meaning the Sox will go after a 1B or 3B). I’m not a huge fan of any of the names being bandied about besides Adrian Gonzalez, who I don’t think is coming without parting with Ellsbury. Adrian Beltre is not much of an upgrade over a lineup with Kotchman, so I wouldn’t touch that.
What I do think the team needs is a bat or two for the bench. Hermida isn’t a great hitter. Not sure who’s a good fit, but there should be some bargain veterans that can fit that role between now and spring training.
I am very optimistic about next year. I am totally cool with the pitching/defense team model. The goal is to score more runs with the other team. Doesn’t matter if the score is 11-6 or 2-1. Let’s just knock the Yankees of that perch baby!
I’m a little mixed on John Lackey. He’s definitely a good pitcher, and I think he should still be good in 5 years. But $80 million good? I’m not sure. To me (like Beckett), he’s really a No. 2 pitcher who sometimes moonlights as a No. 1. But Lester is the No. 1 in Beantown, and Beckett and Lackey will be Nos. 2a and 2b.
I discussed my view of the Scutaro signing in my last post.
So how do the Sox look if the season started today?
Position Players
C Victor Martinez (+ offense, - defense)
1B Casey Kotchman (- offense, + defense)
2B Dustin Pedroia (+ +)
3B Kevin Youkilis (+ +)
SS Marco Scutaro (+ +)
LF Mike Cameron (+ +)
CF Jacoby Ellsbury (+ +)
RF JD Drew (+ +)
DH David Ortiz (-)
Bench
C Jason Varitek (- -)
INF Jed Lowrie (- -)
Jeremy Hermida (- +)
I’ve read a lot of naysayers say how much worse this lineup looks without Bay. I don’t see it that way. Cameron is an awesome defender, Bay wasn’t very good. Yes, Bay is the superior hitter (better on-base skills), but the difference is not that drastic.
Still not sure what Varitek is doing on this team. He’s a defensive liability, and he can’t hit anymore. Yes, he owns a catcher’s mitt, but I would have preferred a minor leaguer with an arm. Or at least a catcher who can hit.
Starters
Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Dice K
Clay Buchholz
Bullpen
Papelbon
Okajima
Daniel Bard
R. Ramirez
The bullpen is still a work in progress, but the rotation is awesome! Dice K and Buchholz may become trade bait, but I’ll take the Boston top 3 over any group in baseball.
If you follow the hot stove rumor mill, Kotchman is unlikely to start the season at 1B (meaning the Sox will go after a 1B or 3B). I’m not a huge fan of any of the names being bandied about besides Adrian Gonzalez, who I don’t think is coming without parting with Ellsbury. Adrian Beltre is not much of an upgrade over a lineup with Kotchman, so I wouldn’t touch that.
What I do think the team needs is a bat or two for the bench. Hermida isn’t a great hitter. Not sure who’s a good fit, but there should be some bargain veterans that can fit that role between now and spring training.
I am very optimistic about next year. I am totally cool with the pitching/defense team model. The goal is to score more runs with the other team. Doesn’t matter if the score is 11-6 or 2-1. Let’s just knock the Yankees of that perch baby!
Monday, December 7, 2009
Red Sox get a SS
Let's get this out of the way first: Marco Scutaro is not a great hitter. He has been below league average every year of his career before 2009, but was one of the better hitting shortstops in MLB in 2009. (Stats.) He's also 33 (my age) which isn't old in real life, but could be old in baseball terms.
Depending on your fielding metric of choice, Scutaro has been either very good, or at least above average, since he started playing SS frequently in 2005. Paired with Pedroia, it should make for a solid double play partnership. And since the Red Sox SSs sucked in the field last season, this should be a huge upgrade.
So overall I think this is good. A 2-year contract is reasonable, as is the salary. I also prefer this to moving Pedroia over to SS, a position he hasn't played regularly in years. I would have been OK with that, but that only shifts the hole in the infield, it doesn't solve it.
Now the Sox just need to find a LF and some more arms for the bullpen...
Depending on your fielding metric of choice, Scutaro has been either very good, or at least above average, since he started playing SS frequently in 2005. Paired with Pedroia, it should make for a solid double play partnership. And since the Red Sox SSs sucked in the field last season, this should be a huge upgrade.
So overall I think this is good. A 2-year contract is reasonable, as is the salary. I also prefer this to moving Pedroia over to SS, a position he hasn't played regularly in years. I would have been OK with that, but that only shifts the hole in the infield, it doesn't solve it.
Now the Sox just need to find a LF and some more arms for the bullpen...
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Red Sox Hot Stove: Position Player Needs
Are the Red Sox planning a spending spree? That's Peter Abraham's question from the GM meetings.
I have no idea what the Red Sox are planning. But here are my thoughts, position by position.
Catcher - This looks pretty clear cut. Victor Martinez will be the No. 1 catcher, and if Jason Varitek wants to be the back-up, the option is out there. The question is why. Varitek really provides no true value at this point. His hitting is bad, and his defense has deteriorated a lot. The Sox need a young or veteran catcher who's great defensively, with a rocket arm.
First Base - Yooouuuuuuuk! Martinez will play here as well.
Second Base - Mighty Might
Third Base - Mike Lowell looks like the incumbent, but his defense is slipping badly. Worth keeping? Sure. But we need a good back-up plan. Youk will likely play here when Martinez is playing 1B.
Shortstop - This is the big hole. Last year we started with Lugo, Lowrie and Green as the back-up. Green, unfortunately, got most of the ABs. Now we have an oft-injured Lowrie as our best option. I was hopeful we'd deal for J.J. Hardy, but the Twins beat the Sox in that 'sweepstakes.' At this point I would go for defense first, even at the expense of offense.
LF - Matt Holliday is the answer. I like Jason Bay, and would be happy with his return. But his defense is not good, and he's a future DH. But Holliday is basically the same bat but with a glove. Will it break the bank? You bet. But the Sox do not have a good internal alternative, so it's Holliday, Bay or a trade. I pick Holliday.
CF - My wife's favorite player, Jacoby Ellsbury.
RF - J.D. Drew, who is totally underrated right now by Sox fans. Is he a great hitter? No, but he's a very good one, and his defense is good as well. I'm fine penciling in Drew everyday.
DH - Big Papi has had two non-Papi years in-a-row. In 2009, he was an average hitter, which is unacceptable at DH for a team with money. Could he bounce back to his decent 2008? Sure, but I think the Sox need a back-up plan in case Big Papi falters. Jeremy Hermida could be that. He could play LF and Bay (if he re-signs) could move to DH. Lars Anderson, if he starts well in 2010, could be the bat. The Sox need to be ready if Ortiz is not the old Papi.
Bench - Hermida was an interesting edition. As Theo said at the time, there is upside here. At age 23 in 2007, Hermida had a very good season. He's been a below average hitter since then, but he is a plus defender. If Lowrie isn't the starting SS, he'd be a pretty good back-up infielder (if he's healthy). He can play SS and 3B well, and I bet 2B or 1B wouldn't be beyond him. They need another power bat off the bench, a Matt Stairs-type who can hit for the SS or back-up catcher.
I have no idea what the Red Sox are planning. But here are my thoughts, position by position.
Catcher - This looks pretty clear cut. Victor Martinez will be the No. 1 catcher, and if Jason Varitek wants to be the back-up, the option is out there. The question is why. Varitek really provides no true value at this point. His hitting is bad, and his defense has deteriorated a lot. The Sox need a young or veteran catcher who's great defensively, with a rocket arm.
First Base - Yooouuuuuuuk! Martinez will play here as well.
Second Base - Mighty Might
Third Base - Mike Lowell looks like the incumbent, but his defense is slipping badly. Worth keeping? Sure. But we need a good back-up plan. Youk will likely play here when Martinez is playing 1B.
Shortstop - This is the big hole. Last year we started with Lugo, Lowrie and Green as the back-up. Green, unfortunately, got most of the ABs. Now we have an oft-injured Lowrie as our best option. I was hopeful we'd deal for J.J. Hardy, but the Twins beat the Sox in that 'sweepstakes.' At this point I would go for defense first, even at the expense of offense.
LF - Matt Holliday is the answer. I like Jason Bay, and would be happy with his return. But his defense is not good, and he's a future DH. But Holliday is basically the same bat but with a glove. Will it break the bank? You bet. But the Sox do not have a good internal alternative, so it's Holliday, Bay or a trade. I pick Holliday.
CF - My wife's favorite player, Jacoby Ellsbury.
RF - J.D. Drew, who is totally underrated right now by Sox fans. Is he a great hitter? No, but he's a very good one, and his defense is good as well. I'm fine penciling in Drew everyday.
DH - Big Papi has had two non-Papi years in-a-row. In 2009, he was an average hitter, which is unacceptable at DH for a team with money. Could he bounce back to his decent 2008? Sure, but I think the Sox need a back-up plan in case Big Papi falters. Jeremy Hermida could be that. He could play LF and Bay (if he re-signs) could move to DH. Lars Anderson, if he starts well in 2010, could be the bat. The Sox need to be ready if Ortiz is not the old Papi.
Bench - Hermida was an interesting edition. As Theo said at the time, there is upside here. At age 23 in 2007, Hermida had a very good season. He's been a below average hitter since then, but he is a plus defender. If Lowrie isn't the starting SS, he'd be a pretty good back-up infielder (if he's healthy). He can play SS and 3B well, and I bet 2B or 1B wouldn't be beyond him. They need another power bat off the bench, a Matt Stairs-type who can hit for the SS or back-up catcher.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
MLB Playoff Preview
If you didn’t watch or see the highlights of the awesome Twins-Tigers play-in game (or as I like to call it ‘The Game For the Opportunity to Get Swept by the Yankees’), then you’re an idiot. (Sorry, poor Office reference.) Seriously though, that game encapsulated why I love playoff baseball: the drama, the unpredictability, the crazy fans. Only two post-season events are better: playoff NHL hockey, and the WNBA playoffs.
So without further ado, my MLB playoff preview in the form of the player on each team that will make or break that team.
Yankees – CC Sabathia
As goes the big guy, so go the Yanks. Truth be told, CC was very good this year, though not quite the stud he was in 2008 or 2007. But the biggest question mark for him is his postseason record: 5 starts, 2-3 record, an ERA of 7.92, and walking nearly 8 batters per nine innings.
What’s up with that? Is it a sample size issue? Is he a choker? I don’t believe the last could be true – the guy carried the Brewers into the playoffs on his large back last season. I just think he’s been overworked the past two seasons, and this year he threw 230 innings, which is the fewest he’s thrown since 2006. I think he pitches well for the Yanks.
Angels – Scott Kazmir
Kazmir was a shell of himself this year, though he has a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts after being traded by the Rays. I think that trade crazy – why give up on a 25-year old lefty he strikes out a batter per inning?
I think if Kazmir shuts down the Sox, the Angels have a chance to overcome the ‘curse of the rally monkey.’ If not, I think the Sox cruise to another playoff victory
Twins – Jason Kubel
No one is going to pitch to Joe Mauer (if they’re smart). The only pitcher on the NY staff that should mess with Mauer is Mariano Rivera. Everyone else should stay away.
So Kubel is going to likely hit with men on. If he can make the Yankees pay, then the Twins have a shot. If not, at least the Twins gave us that awesome 163rd game.
Red Sox – Victor Martinez
V-Mart has been carrying the Sox in a lot of different ways. He’s hit 336/405/507 since the Aug. 1 trade (which was highway robbery, by the way). If he hits, we win.
This is especially true if they keep Varitek out of the lineup. I love the guy, but his defense is sub-par now, and his hitting sucks. This is the lineup I want to see: Martinez at C, Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B. Defensively and offensively, I think this is the best lineup. Sure, put Youk at 1B and Mike Lowell at 3B, I’ll buy that too. Just keep Tek out of the lineup.
Phillies – Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll had his worst offensive season since 2002. Though still a plus defender, he had his worst defensive season since 2005. But he hits in a lineup with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, so he still scored 100 runs, pretty remarkable for a guy with a sub-.300 OBP. If he hits, I think they cruise.
Dodgers – Manny Ramirez
Seems obvious right? But Manny is a streaky player (insert PED jokes here). But over the course of his career he’s hit 286/399/550 in the playoffs (378 ABs). If he hits like that, Dodgers will win. If not, I think they will struggle to score runs.
Cardinals – Matt Holliday
Much like Mr. Kubel with Mauer, Holliday must hit behind King Albert. He is the best hitter on the planet, and I think Joe Torre is smart enough to put Pujols on an open first base when prudent (which is almost always). Holliday will hit with runners on base. And I believe that whomever has the better series (Holliday or Manny) will lead his team into the NLCS.
Rockies – Starting pitchers
Yes, a somewhat whimpy pick, but follow me here. This is actually a sneaky good pitching staff, with above average starters throughout. If Ubaldo Jiminez and Co. can shut down Philly’s lineup, I think this is your best bet for an upset in the first round. I like their pitching, I like their lineup. I think they are a better team than the 2007 bunch that rolled into the World Series. And yes, this is foreshadowing.
Predictions:
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Yankees over Twins in 3
NLDS
Cardinals over Dodgers in 4
Rockies over Phillies in 5
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Rockies over Cardinals in 7
World Series
Red Sox over Rockies in 6
And yes, I’m a complete homer.
So without further ado, my MLB playoff preview in the form of the player on each team that will make or break that team.
Yankees – CC Sabathia
As goes the big guy, so go the Yanks. Truth be told, CC was very good this year, though not quite the stud he was in 2008 or 2007. But the biggest question mark for him is his postseason record: 5 starts, 2-3 record, an ERA of 7.92, and walking nearly 8 batters per nine innings.
What’s up with that? Is it a sample size issue? Is he a choker? I don’t believe the last could be true – the guy carried the Brewers into the playoffs on his large back last season. I just think he’s been overworked the past two seasons, and this year he threw 230 innings, which is the fewest he’s thrown since 2006. I think he pitches well for the Yanks.
Angels – Scott Kazmir
Kazmir was a shell of himself this year, though he has a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts after being traded by the Rays. I think that trade crazy – why give up on a 25-year old lefty he strikes out a batter per inning?
I think if Kazmir shuts down the Sox, the Angels have a chance to overcome the ‘curse of the rally monkey.’ If not, I think the Sox cruise to another playoff victory
Twins – Jason Kubel
No one is going to pitch to Joe Mauer (if they’re smart). The only pitcher on the NY staff that should mess with Mauer is Mariano Rivera. Everyone else should stay away.
So Kubel is going to likely hit with men on. If he can make the Yankees pay, then the Twins have a shot. If not, at least the Twins gave us that awesome 163rd game.
Red Sox – Victor Martinez
V-Mart has been carrying the Sox in a lot of different ways. He’s hit 336/405/507 since the Aug. 1 trade (which was highway robbery, by the way). If he hits, we win.
This is especially true if they keep Varitek out of the lineup. I love the guy, but his defense is sub-par now, and his hitting sucks. This is the lineup I want to see: Martinez at C, Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B. Defensively and offensively, I think this is the best lineup. Sure, put Youk at 1B and Mike Lowell at 3B, I’ll buy that too. Just keep Tek out of the lineup.
Phillies – Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll had his worst offensive season since 2002. Though still a plus defender, he had his worst defensive season since 2005. But he hits in a lineup with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, so he still scored 100 runs, pretty remarkable for a guy with a sub-.300 OBP. If he hits, I think they cruise.
Dodgers – Manny Ramirez
Seems obvious right? But Manny is a streaky player (insert PED jokes here). But over the course of his career he’s hit 286/399/550 in the playoffs (378 ABs). If he hits like that, Dodgers will win. If not, I think they will struggle to score runs.
Cardinals – Matt Holliday
Much like Mr. Kubel with Mauer, Holliday must hit behind King Albert. He is the best hitter on the planet, and I think Joe Torre is smart enough to put Pujols on an open first base when prudent (which is almost always). Holliday will hit with runners on base. And I believe that whomever has the better series (Holliday or Manny) will lead his team into the NLCS.
Rockies – Starting pitchers
Yes, a somewhat whimpy pick, but follow me here. This is actually a sneaky good pitching staff, with above average starters throughout. If Ubaldo Jiminez and Co. can shut down Philly’s lineup, I think this is your best bet for an upset in the first round. I like their pitching, I like their lineup. I think they are a better team than the 2007 bunch that rolled into the World Series. And yes, this is foreshadowing.
Predictions:
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Yankees over Twins in 3
NLDS
Cardinals over Dodgers in 4
Rockies over Phillies in 5
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Rockies over Cardinals in 7
World Series
Red Sox over Rockies in 6
And yes, I’m a complete homer.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
The Truth of the Steroids Era
The steroids issue lingers in baseball like a public appearance of Britney Spears. It’s really not that interesting, but no one can stop talking about it.
After David Ortiz’s name was revealed to be on the list of 2003 ‘offenders’, I was honestly shocked at the response. People were asking me whether Boston’s titles in 2004 and 2007 were now tainted with cheaters Big Papi and Manny on the team. No, I said. I was offended that someone in the know was leaking confidential information and that the leak had not been discovered and prosecuted. No one seemed at all interested in that discussion.
I have reflected a lot on this issue since the McGwire-Sosa 1998 homerun chase. I thought at the time that both were using something, especially Sosa. That now seems likely to be the case. And my response ever sense has been, so what? At the time, it wasn’t against the rules and wasn’t tested for. MLB didn’t have a truly meaningful drug policy until 2005. Think about that. Seven years after McGwire and Sosa chased Maris, the powers that be finally did something to stop it.
I am in no way endorsing cheating. I wish these drugs had never entered professional sports, but they did, the leagues, players, fans and media looked the other way, and now it’s just an era we have to deal with. So get over it. Do you want to stop being a baseball fan? Fine, walk away, your call. Do you want to hate McGwire, Clemens, Manny, Canseco, etc., for the rest of your life? Be my guest. But it’s a massive waste of energy.
So without further ado, here are the greatest myths of the ‘steroid era.’
It Taints the Champions (any team with ‘proven cheaters’)
How is this even rational? Yes, I’m a Boston guy, so of course I want my team’s recent positive history to stick. But unless someone can tell me that Boston and New York had more ‘cheaters’ than everybody else, the playing field was even. Just because the Pirates sucked doesn’t mean they didn’t have PED users.
It Taints the Records
Total crap as well, it just reframes them. When MLB raised the mounds in 1968, ERAs fell through the floor. Do we ‘raise’ Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA? Heck no, but as we look at the time period, we just know that was part of the reason. Yes, you say, but Gibson had the same advantage as everyone else, and that’s true. But we have had spitballers (aka cheaters) throughout baseball history, and we had players popping uppers since the late 1960s. So in order for it to taint the records, we’d have to go back and look at all ‘cheaters’, not just steroid users. And then it becomes ridiculous. Bill Simmons does a great job exploring that in a recent column.
What is does taint are the individuals. McGwire, Manny, the Rocket, Giambi, Big Papi, Bonds. All these guys will forever be connected to this era, and not in a good way, fair or unfair. If they used, it was ethically wrong, no doubt, and likely caused harm to ‘clean’ players. They should be labeled as users.
But let’s lay off the legal argument. Besides a misguided and wasteful federal investigation of Bonds, buying these drugs is not a huge deal for the government. If it was, they would crawling around clubhouses looking for users. Luckily they have better things to do.
They Don’t Deserve to be in the Hall of Fame
As J. Jonah Jameson would say: “Crap, crap, double crap.” A Hall of Fame without Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, etc., is a joke. You’re going to exclude the greatest player of my lifetime (Bonds) because he has been accused of taking PEDs but never tested positive or was convicted of anything? Come one. Get off the self-righteous soapbox.
This is where I get really revved up. The sportswriters pointing the finger are hypocrites. Where was the investigative journalism? Where was the scandal? You guys profited off this, got raises, sold books, and watched your popularity soar and now want to point the finger? That indignation would have felt sincere in 1989 (when the Fenway crowd chanted ‘steroids’ at Jose Canseco). It feels hallow now. Any writer who doesn’t vote for Bonds will prove themselves a fool.
Could you ding a borderline guy like Palmeiro? Sure. Could you devalue people because of the inflated era? Absolutely. But keeping some of the best players in baseball history out of the sport’s shrine for breaking a rule that didn’t exist is stupid.
The World Will End if Jeter Tests Positive
Gene Wojciechowski recently wrote that if Derek Jeter tested positive, baseball would die. Come on dude, not even the man every sportswriter and sportscaster wants to father their children could bring down America’s Pastime.
First off, I would be surprised if Jeter tested positive. But holding up any of these guys (Griffey, Ripken, Jeter) as non-users is ridiculous. I don’t believe they used anything, but would it shock me? No. They are highly competitive men trying to gain every edge.
The name that should scare everyone isn’t Jeter but Jordan. There has been no basketball PED scandal yet, but that doesn’t mean the sport was clean. You don’t think the hyper-competitive Jordan wouldn’t have looked for every advantage, especially during his comebacks? Now a revelation like that would rock the sports world. A Jeter admission wouldn’t even bring down the Yankees (unfortunately).
It Taints Memories
Well, this one is very individual. For me it just changes them. I remember working as a waiter in 1998 when McGwire hit No. 62. I had a pager at the time, and my roommate Keith paged me with a simple message: 62. I cheered out loud. I told my section, and everyone clapped.
If McGwire’s numbers are tainted by his non-denial, so be it. It changes my perspective on that moment, but it doesn’t change the joy of that baseball memory. And Manny testing positive does nothing to dim my memories of 2004 and 2007. You can choose to have it change your memories, but I’m going to keep mine as is.
After David Ortiz’s name was revealed to be on the list of 2003 ‘offenders’, I was honestly shocked at the response. People were asking me whether Boston’s titles in 2004 and 2007 were now tainted with cheaters Big Papi and Manny on the team. No, I said. I was offended that someone in the know was leaking confidential information and that the leak had not been discovered and prosecuted. No one seemed at all interested in that discussion.
I have reflected a lot on this issue since the McGwire-Sosa 1998 homerun chase. I thought at the time that both were using something, especially Sosa. That now seems likely to be the case. And my response ever sense has been, so what? At the time, it wasn’t against the rules and wasn’t tested for. MLB didn’t have a truly meaningful drug policy until 2005. Think about that. Seven years after McGwire and Sosa chased Maris, the powers that be finally did something to stop it.
I am in no way endorsing cheating. I wish these drugs had never entered professional sports, but they did, the leagues, players, fans and media looked the other way, and now it’s just an era we have to deal with. So get over it. Do you want to stop being a baseball fan? Fine, walk away, your call. Do you want to hate McGwire, Clemens, Manny, Canseco, etc., for the rest of your life? Be my guest. But it’s a massive waste of energy.
So without further ado, here are the greatest myths of the ‘steroid era.’
It Taints the Champions (any team with ‘proven cheaters’)
How is this even rational? Yes, I’m a Boston guy, so of course I want my team’s recent positive history to stick. But unless someone can tell me that Boston and New York had more ‘cheaters’ than everybody else, the playing field was even. Just because the Pirates sucked doesn’t mean they didn’t have PED users.
It Taints the Records
Total crap as well, it just reframes them. When MLB raised the mounds in 1968, ERAs fell through the floor. Do we ‘raise’ Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA? Heck no, but as we look at the time period, we just know that was part of the reason. Yes, you say, but Gibson had the same advantage as everyone else, and that’s true. But we have had spitballers (aka cheaters) throughout baseball history, and we had players popping uppers since the late 1960s. So in order for it to taint the records, we’d have to go back and look at all ‘cheaters’, not just steroid users. And then it becomes ridiculous. Bill Simmons does a great job exploring that in a recent column.
What is does taint are the individuals. McGwire, Manny, the Rocket, Giambi, Big Papi, Bonds. All these guys will forever be connected to this era, and not in a good way, fair or unfair. If they used, it was ethically wrong, no doubt, and likely caused harm to ‘clean’ players. They should be labeled as users.
But let’s lay off the legal argument. Besides a misguided and wasteful federal investigation of Bonds, buying these drugs is not a huge deal for the government. If it was, they would crawling around clubhouses looking for users. Luckily they have better things to do.
They Don’t Deserve to be in the Hall of Fame
As J. Jonah Jameson would say: “Crap, crap, double crap.” A Hall of Fame without Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, etc., is a joke. You’re going to exclude the greatest player of my lifetime (Bonds) because he has been accused of taking PEDs but never tested positive or was convicted of anything? Come one. Get off the self-righteous soapbox.
This is where I get really revved up. The sportswriters pointing the finger are hypocrites. Where was the investigative journalism? Where was the scandal? You guys profited off this, got raises, sold books, and watched your popularity soar and now want to point the finger? That indignation would have felt sincere in 1989 (when the Fenway crowd chanted ‘steroids’ at Jose Canseco). It feels hallow now. Any writer who doesn’t vote for Bonds will prove themselves a fool.
Could you ding a borderline guy like Palmeiro? Sure. Could you devalue people because of the inflated era? Absolutely. But keeping some of the best players in baseball history out of the sport’s shrine for breaking a rule that didn’t exist is stupid.
The World Will End if Jeter Tests Positive
Gene Wojciechowski recently wrote that if Derek Jeter tested positive, baseball would die. Come on dude, not even the man every sportswriter and sportscaster wants to father their children could bring down America’s Pastime.
First off, I would be surprised if Jeter tested positive. But holding up any of these guys (Griffey, Ripken, Jeter) as non-users is ridiculous. I don’t believe they used anything, but would it shock me? No. They are highly competitive men trying to gain every edge.
The name that should scare everyone isn’t Jeter but Jordan. There has been no basketball PED scandal yet, but that doesn’t mean the sport was clean. You don’t think the hyper-competitive Jordan wouldn’t have looked for every advantage, especially during his comebacks? Now a revelation like that would rock the sports world. A Jeter admission wouldn’t even bring down the Yankees (unfortunately).
It Taints Memories
Well, this one is very individual. For me it just changes them. I remember working as a waiter in 1998 when McGwire hit No. 62. I had a pager at the time, and my roommate Keith paged me with a simple message: 62. I cheered out loud. I told my section, and everyone clapped.
If McGwire’s numbers are tainted by his non-denial, so be it. It changes my perspective on that moment, but it doesn’t change the joy of that baseball memory. And Manny testing positive does nothing to dim my memories of 2004 and 2007. You can choose to have it change your memories, but I’m going to keep mine as is.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Should have kept Smoltz
John Smoltz looked good in his Cardinals debut, and Brad Penny is getting lit up like a Christmas tree, and will be skipped in the rotation, at least once. I questioned whether this was the right decision at the time because I didn't like the alternatives.
Now Smoltz is on the Cardinals, and he pitched very well, striking out 9 batters, including 7 in-a-row in his St. Louis debut. Is his remarkable 'resurgence' a factor of pitching against a weak Padres team (11th in the NL in scoring on the road), or was he really a better pitcher this season than his stats showed?
Smoltz departure didn't exactly generate tears in Beantown. To the contrary, I think most fans wanted him gone. He had not done what John Smoltz is supposed to do: dominate the opposition, or at minimum, keep the Sox in the game.
But as I wrote previously, his periphiral numbers (Ks, BBs, HRs) were in line with his fine 2007 season, except for greater tendency to give up the long ball, but that had stopped in his last few starts with Boston. Erik Manning at Fangraphs thinks Smoltz is far from done.
The Red Sox should have kept Smoltz, and not just because of this gem against San Diego. They should have kept him because, even if he's old, he had pitched well last season and his results were very likely to change for the better. And without great alternatives (one-pitch Penny, a 23-year-old with only indepent league Japanese experience, and a host of other young arms), there was no reason to terminate the relationship so quickly. If the Sox miss the playoffs by a game or two, this is a decision that could haunt Theo & Co.
Now Smoltz is on the Cardinals, and he pitched very well, striking out 9 batters, including 7 in-a-row in his St. Louis debut. Is his remarkable 'resurgence' a factor of pitching against a weak Padres team (11th in the NL in scoring on the road), or was he really a better pitcher this season than his stats showed?
Smoltz departure didn't exactly generate tears in Beantown. To the contrary, I think most fans wanted him gone. He had not done what John Smoltz is supposed to do: dominate the opposition, or at minimum, keep the Sox in the game.
But as I wrote previously, his periphiral numbers (Ks, BBs, HRs) were in line with his fine 2007 season, except for greater tendency to give up the long ball, but that had stopped in his last few starts with Boston. Erik Manning at Fangraphs thinks Smoltz is far from done.
The Red Sox should have kept Smoltz, and not just because of this gem against San Diego. They should have kept him because, even if he's old, he had pitched well last season and his results were very likely to change for the better. And without great alternatives (one-pitch Penny, a 23-year-old with only indepent league Japanese experience, and a host of other young arms), there was no reason to terminate the relationship so quickly. If the Sox miss the playoffs by a game or two, this is a decision that could haunt Theo & Co.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Panic Nation
You would have thought it was 2003 or something. Red Sox Nation seems to be in full panic mode, especially if you watched the Tigers game last night. The Fenway Park crowd was almost silent in the 8th and 9th innings, a marked departure from close games earlier in the season. The 6-game losing skid left the fans shell-shocked.
But is there cause for such despair? Maybe if this was 2003, and the 'curse of Dan Shaughnessy' was still in full bloom. But this current regime (Francona and Epstein) have won two world series and only missed the playoffs once. This has been, by many measures, the most successful franchise of the decade. The 'wo-is-me' attitude is beginning to annoy me. We don't have to act like insufferable Yankee fans, but can't we at least have a little swagger and not go into panic mode with each losing streak.
But to be fare, things have changed in the last week. The losing streak changed Boston's chances at the postseason, no matter how you slice it. If you look at the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, you'll see the Sox playoff chances have dropped 22 points since last week. They still have about a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs. But the Yankees now look like a lock to make the playoffs, and the Rangers and Rays are looking to take Boston's wildcard spot.
A week ago everyone was worried about the starting rotation. Now everyone's worried about an anemic lineup. But I'm not worried so much about the offense. With the addition of Victor Martinez, and better performance from Bay and JD (which I expect), scoring runs won't be the issue. My big question is who will provide solid innings after Beckett and Lester. The enigmatic Penny? The baffling Dice-K? The old knuckleballer? Paul Byrd? This is not painting a pretty picture.
Potentially more disastrous is the defense. Again referencing Baseball Prospectus, the Sox are second-to-last in baseball in defense. Last year the Sox were 5th. From my observation, the team is suffering defensively at SS, LF, RF (when Drew isn't in the lineup), 3B (when the limited Lowell is in the lineup) and catcher (when it comes to the running game). To me, this is the biggest problem. Kotchman was a nice pickup for this reason; Youk can play third and Kotchman (a very good gloveman) can play 1B when defense is needed.
The Rios Contract
I'm a little stunned the White Sox took on Alex Rios' contract. You can get the takes of Rob Neyer and Keith Law through these links. Yes, by adding Rios and Peavy they get two potential All-Stars without giving up a ton, and they're likely better options than anything that will hit the 2010 free agent market. But there's still almost $70 million on Rios' contract, and Peavy may not be the same pitcher outside of Petco and after his injury. Ken Williams never rests (which is good), but Rios' bat has declined every year since 2006, and though he's a plus defender (and will be moved back to CF by all accounts), I'm not sure the White Sox won't be regretting this decision in 2011.
But is there cause for such despair? Maybe if this was 2003, and the 'curse of Dan Shaughnessy' was still in full bloom. But this current regime (Francona and Epstein) have won two world series and only missed the playoffs once. This has been, by many measures, the most successful franchise of the decade. The 'wo-is-me' attitude is beginning to annoy me. We don't have to act like insufferable Yankee fans, but can't we at least have a little swagger and not go into panic mode with each losing streak.
But to be fare, things have changed in the last week. The losing streak changed Boston's chances at the postseason, no matter how you slice it. If you look at the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, you'll see the Sox playoff chances have dropped 22 points since last week. They still have about a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs. But the Yankees now look like a lock to make the playoffs, and the Rangers and Rays are looking to take Boston's wildcard spot.
A week ago everyone was worried about the starting rotation. Now everyone's worried about an anemic lineup. But I'm not worried so much about the offense. With the addition of Victor Martinez, and better performance from Bay and JD (which I expect), scoring runs won't be the issue. My big question is who will provide solid innings after Beckett and Lester. The enigmatic Penny? The baffling Dice-K? The old knuckleballer? Paul Byrd? This is not painting a pretty picture.
Potentially more disastrous is the defense. Again referencing Baseball Prospectus, the Sox are second-to-last in baseball in defense. Last year the Sox were 5th. From my observation, the team is suffering defensively at SS, LF, RF (when Drew isn't in the lineup), 3B (when the limited Lowell is in the lineup) and catcher (when it comes to the running game). To me, this is the biggest problem. Kotchman was a nice pickup for this reason; Youk can play third and Kotchman (a very good gloveman) can play 1B when defense is needed.
The Rios Contract
I'm a little stunned the White Sox took on Alex Rios' contract. You can get the takes of Rob Neyer and Keith Law through these links. Yes, by adding Rios and Peavy they get two potential All-Stars without giving up a ton, and they're likely better options than anything that will hit the 2010 free agent market. But there's still almost $70 million on Rios' contract, and Peavy may not be the same pitcher outside of Petco and after his injury. Ken Williams never rests (which is good), but Rios' bat has declined every year since 2006, and though he's a plus defender (and will be moved back to CF by all accounts), I'm not sure the White Sox won't be regretting this decision in 2011.
Monday, August 10, 2009
The Fall of John Smoltz
I hated to see John Smoltz leave the Red Sox. I was very hopeful that Smoltz would prove to be the third starter in a power big three (joining Beckett and Lester). He turned out to be a bust. How bad was he? An ERA over 8, and his fastball was getting destroyed, marking only the second time in his career when his fastball wasn't a plus pitch (according to Fangraphs), and the only other time was last year.
If I just use my eyes, I thought he was done several starts ago. He wasn't fooling batters his second and third time through a lineup, and as Dave Roberts said on NESN during Smoltz's last start, he was doing a great job of throwing strikes, but was missing his spots within the zone.
The numbers tell a slightly different story. Of the three things pitchers have the most control over, he was well within career norms on two. He was striking out batters, and he was being very stingy with the base on balls. But he was giving up a lot of home runs, 1.8 per 9, more than double his career rate. His rate of flyballs turned into home runs was a 50% increase of his career.
Why the problem with the longball? Well, he hadn't given up a HR since July 30 at Texas, and had gone four starts (only one of which was a good start) without giving up a homer. During that same stretch, he walked 4 batters in 20 innings. So were the home runs pitching in hitters parks (Fenway, Baltimore, Texas, Yankee Launching Pad), or did he suddely lose his ability to keep it in the yard.
A lot of his struggles, again according to the numbers I have, were bad luck. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was a huge .390, up 100 points on his career numbers. Most research has shown that pitchers don't have a lot of control on that number. Could it be the poor defense behind him? Maybe, but other Sox starters have kept their BABIP at career levels (including Beckett).
So was it the right decision to designate Smoltz for assignment? I would say yes, if the Sox had a lot of options. But when signing Paul Byrd to a minor league contract is one of the solutions, color me skeptical.
Did Sox management make the right decision? Maybe. But I think I would rather have a struggling Smoltz where the light might have come on, versus the other options.
If I just use my eyes, I thought he was done several starts ago. He wasn't fooling batters his second and third time through a lineup, and as Dave Roberts said on NESN during Smoltz's last start, he was doing a great job of throwing strikes, but was missing his spots within the zone.
The numbers tell a slightly different story. Of the three things pitchers have the most control over, he was well within career norms on two. He was striking out batters, and he was being very stingy with the base on balls. But he was giving up a lot of home runs, 1.8 per 9, more than double his career rate. His rate of flyballs turned into home runs was a 50% increase of his career.
Why the problem with the longball? Well, he hadn't given up a HR since July 30 at Texas, and had gone four starts (only one of which was a good start) without giving up a homer. During that same stretch, he walked 4 batters in 20 innings. So were the home runs pitching in hitters parks (Fenway, Baltimore, Texas, Yankee Launching Pad), or did he suddely lose his ability to keep it in the yard.
A lot of his struggles, again according to the numbers I have, were bad luck. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was a huge .390, up 100 points on his career numbers. Most research has shown that pitchers don't have a lot of control on that number. Could it be the poor defense behind him? Maybe, but other Sox starters have kept their BABIP at career levels (including Beckett).
So was it the right decision to designate Smoltz for assignment? I would say yes, if the Sox had a lot of options. But when signing Paul Byrd to a minor league contract is one of the solutions, color me skeptical.
Did Sox management make the right decision? Maybe. But I think I would rather have a struggling Smoltz where the light might have come on, versus the other options.
Friday, July 17, 2009
MLB mid-season review
It’s halfway through the season (roughly) and it’s really been an awesome season. A few of my favorite highlights (or lowlights, depending on your perspective):
· Luis Castillo dropping a pop up to lose a game.
· Jonathan Sanchez’s no-hitter.
· Manny’s drug suspension.
· Jacoby Ellsbury stealing home against the Yankees.
I know the All-Star game has passed, but I wanted to take a crack at drafting my own rosters. My rules are very different – I’m looking for the best player at each position, who I would take to fill out a roster to win 80 games the rest of year. That means no Washington Nationals. I’m picking starters only, with a few honorable mentions.
All-NL Team
I’ve watched more NL games this year than any year in my lifetime – so I feel more qualified to make these suggestions.
· C – Brian McCann, Braves. Next to Pujols, this is the easiest choice in the NL. I’d bring a long a Molina brother for defensive purposes (likely Yady).
· 1B – Pujols, Cardinals.
· 2B – Chase Utley, Phillies. Also, not close. I’d bring along Orlando Hudson for defense and comedy.
· 3B – David Wright, Mets. This one was tough. Pablo ‘Kung-Fu Panda’ Sandoval has had a tremendous season, but Wright’s a better fielder and has a better track record. Even with Wright’s lack of power this season, he’s the best in a very good class (which includes Ryan Zimmerman and Chipper Jones).
· SS – Hanley Ramirez, Marlins. Again, easy. Miguel Tejada is the closest, and his range at SS would only be acceptable in a 40+ softball league. Ramirez’s only flaw is he doesn’t walk much, but when you hit .346 and slug .562, that is easily forgiven.
· LF – Manny Ramirez, Dodgers. I hate to do this, but if I wanted to win the maximum games, Manny would be the choice. I’d bring along Ryan Braun incase Manny dips into the woman’s supplements again.
· CF – Carlos Beltran, Mets. More difficult than it looks because Matt Kemp is doing a tremendous job in LA, but Beltran’s the guy.
· RF – Justin Upton, D-Backs. Very close, almost chose Brad Hawpe. You could make an argument for others as well. I’d bring along Jayson Werth just so he could try and steal home.
· SP – Tim Lincecum, Giants; Dan Haren, D-Backs; Johan Santana, Mets; Yovani Gallardo, Brewers; Matt Cain, Giants. You don’t see the usual suspects here (Peavy, Webb, Zambrano), and that’s because they’re either injured or they suck (I’m looking at you, Carlos).
· RP – Trevor Hoffman, Brewers; Rafael Soriano, Braves; Ryan Franklin, Cardinals; Francisco Rodriguez, Mets; Jeremy Affledt, Giants; Francisco Cordero, Reds.
All-AL Team
· C – Joe Mauer, Twins. I recently heard the TBS announcers during a Braves game comment that McCann may actually be better than Mauer. Not on this planet man. Mauer is McCann’s superior on every level – and that’s absolutely no insult to McCann.
· 1B – Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox. I know, I’m a homer. But Youk offers similar power to Justin Morneau with better OB-skills, and good defense.
· 2B – Ben Zobrist, Rays. This guy has been unreal so far. Is he the real deal? Who knows, but I’d want him. I’d bring along Pedroia for defense and unintentional comedic value.
· 3B – Evan Longoria, Rays. Not a tough one for me, despite a good year from Michael Young. Longoria is the best in baseball fielding his position, and he’s a power bat. I’d probably bring along Scott Rolen so we could have an intensity contest between him, Youk and Pedroia.
· SS – Derek Jeter, Yankees. I know, take away my Red Sox Nation card. But the Captain has been much improved on defense this year, and his hitting is as solid as ever. Still, I hate doing this.
· LF – Carl Crawford, Rays. I picked him over Bay because his defense is better and he steals bases. I don’t think you could go wrong with either pick.
· CF – Torii Hunter, Angels. Easy call. Good defense, power bat.
· RF – Ichiro, Mariners. Also pretty easy. Defense, speed, on-base skills. Only lacking power, but my lineup has plenty of that.
· DH – Justin Morneau, Twins. I know he’s not a DH, but I would take the best hitter I hadn’t selected. I’d also bring along Jermaine Dye for his power from the right side.
· SP – Zack Grienke, Royals; Felix Hernandez, Mariners; Cliff Lee, Indians; Roy Halladay, Blue Jays; Jered Weaver, Angels.
· RP – Mariano Rivera, Yankees; Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox; David Aardsma, Mariners; Joe Nathan, Twins; George Sherrill, Orioles.
A couple of other baseball thoughts:
· Please change the format in the future and don’t have pitchers hit in an All-Star game. Who wants to see some guy flailing like the unathletic guy in your company softball league? Not me.
· It’s clear to me that performance-enhancing drugs are a media-driven phenomenon. Fans don’t care that much, as witnessed by Manny’s triumphant return. Yes, the opposition boos him, but be honest, wouldn’t you cheer him on your own team, just like the Dodger faithful? I thought so.
· The Indians stink. In my preseason predictions, I had them winning their division. But the pitching has been awful (outside of Cliff Lee) and the hitting hasn’t been a ton better. Good luck next year, Cleveland fans. At least you have LeBron (and now Shaq).
· Luis Castillo dropping a pop up to lose a game.
· Jonathan Sanchez’s no-hitter.
· Manny’s drug suspension.
· Jacoby Ellsbury stealing home against the Yankees.
I know the All-Star game has passed, but I wanted to take a crack at drafting my own rosters. My rules are very different – I’m looking for the best player at each position, who I would take to fill out a roster to win 80 games the rest of year. That means no Washington Nationals. I’m picking starters only, with a few honorable mentions.
All-NL Team
I’ve watched more NL games this year than any year in my lifetime – so I feel more qualified to make these suggestions.
· C – Brian McCann, Braves. Next to Pujols, this is the easiest choice in the NL. I’d bring a long a Molina brother for defensive purposes (likely Yady).
· 1B – Pujols, Cardinals.
· 2B – Chase Utley, Phillies. Also, not close. I’d bring along Orlando Hudson for defense and comedy.
· 3B – David Wright, Mets. This one was tough. Pablo ‘Kung-Fu Panda’ Sandoval has had a tremendous season, but Wright’s a better fielder and has a better track record. Even with Wright’s lack of power this season, he’s the best in a very good class (which includes Ryan Zimmerman and Chipper Jones).
· SS – Hanley Ramirez, Marlins. Again, easy. Miguel Tejada is the closest, and his range at SS would only be acceptable in a 40+ softball league. Ramirez’s only flaw is he doesn’t walk much, but when you hit .346 and slug .562, that is easily forgiven.
· LF – Manny Ramirez, Dodgers. I hate to do this, but if I wanted to win the maximum games, Manny would be the choice. I’d bring along Ryan Braun incase Manny dips into the woman’s supplements again.
· CF – Carlos Beltran, Mets. More difficult than it looks because Matt Kemp is doing a tremendous job in LA, but Beltran’s the guy.
· RF – Justin Upton, D-Backs. Very close, almost chose Brad Hawpe. You could make an argument for others as well. I’d bring along Jayson Werth just so he could try and steal home.
· SP – Tim Lincecum, Giants; Dan Haren, D-Backs; Johan Santana, Mets; Yovani Gallardo, Brewers; Matt Cain, Giants. You don’t see the usual suspects here (Peavy, Webb, Zambrano), and that’s because they’re either injured or they suck (I’m looking at you, Carlos).
· RP – Trevor Hoffman, Brewers; Rafael Soriano, Braves; Ryan Franklin, Cardinals; Francisco Rodriguez, Mets; Jeremy Affledt, Giants; Francisco Cordero, Reds.
All-AL Team
· C – Joe Mauer, Twins. I recently heard the TBS announcers during a Braves game comment that McCann may actually be better than Mauer. Not on this planet man. Mauer is McCann’s superior on every level – and that’s absolutely no insult to McCann.
· 1B – Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox. I know, I’m a homer. But Youk offers similar power to Justin Morneau with better OB-skills, and good defense.
· 2B – Ben Zobrist, Rays. This guy has been unreal so far. Is he the real deal? Who knows, but I’d want him. I’d bring along Pedroia for defense and unintentional comedic value.
· 3B – Evan Longoria, Rays. Not a tough one for me, despite a good year from Michael Young. Longoria is the best in baseball fielding his position, and he’s a power bat. I’d probably bring along Scott Rolen so we could have an intensity contest between him, Youk and Pedroia.
· SS – Derek Jeter, Yankees. I know, take away my Red Sox Nation card. But the Captain has been much improved on defense this year, and his hitting is as solid as ever. Still, I hate doing this.
· LF – Carl Crawford, Rays. I picked him over Bay because his defense is better and he steals bases. I don’t think you could go wrong with either pick.
· CF – Torii Hunter, Angels. Easy call. Good defense, power bat.
· RF – Ichiro, Mariners. Also pretty easy. Defense, speed, on-base skills. Only lacking power, but my lineup has plenty of that.
· DH – Justin Morneau, Twins. I know he’s not a DH, but I would take the best hitter I hadn’t selected. I’d also bring along Jermaine Dye for his power from the right side.
· SP – Zack Grienke, Royals; Felix Hernandez, Mariners; Cliff Lee, Indians; Roy Halladay, Blue Jays; Jered Weaver, Angels.
· RP – Mariano Rivera, Yankees; Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox; David Aardsma, Mariners; Joe Nathan, Twins; George Sherrill, Orioles.
A couple of other baseball thoughts:
· Please change the format in the future and don’t have pitchers hit in an All-Star game. Who wants to see some guy flailing like the unathletic guy in your company softball league? Not me.
· It’s clear to me that performance-enhancing drugs are a media-driven phenomenon. Fans don’t care that much, as witnessed by Manny’s triumphant return. Yes, the opposition boos him, but be honest, wouldn’t you cheer him on your own team, just like the Dodger faithful? I thought so.
· The Indians stink. In my preseason predictions, I had them winning their division. But the pitching has been awful (outside of Cliff Lee) and the hitting hasn’t been a ton better. Good luck next year, Cleveland fans. At least you have LeBron (and now Shaq).
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