A month ago I wrote about how the Red Sox still had a chance. Am I completely writing them off? Certainly not. One year ago today the Yankees were 4.5 games behind first-place Toronto. The Blue Jays imploded, and the Yanks went on to win the title. So in theory, the Sox could come back.
Except for two minor problems: The Rays and the Yankees. When I previewed the American League, I underestimated the Rays for one reason: their pitching. According to Fangraphs, they have the second best pitching staff in the American League. Their lineup is just OK, but that pitching is phenomenal, with young starters David Price and Jeff Niemann making the leap.
And the Yanks? That lineup is unreal so far. Even with Texeira struggling, Baseball Prospectus has the Yanks as, by far, the best offensive team in baseball. There's not weakness, especially hwne you have you back-up catcher hitting like .800.
What has foiled the Sox? I know that I and others have hounded the offense, particularly Big Papi and Victor Martinez. But the offense has been the fourth best in the league; the pitching has failed them. Beckett and Lackey have been average. Papelbon and most of the rest of the bullpen (with the exception of Bard) has been shaky.
Add to that an average defense, and you have a team that will have a very hard time catching the Rays and Yankees, as much as I hate typing that. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think Tampa and New York are the two best teams in baseball, and that the Red Sox will be watching the 2010 postseason from home.
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