The Red Sox can still smell the playoffs

Before games are played on July 27, the Red Sox sit 8 games behind the division-leading Yankees and five games behind the wild card-leading Rays. Many prognosticators had Boston, New York and Tampa as the best three teams in the American League coming into 2010, and they haven't been too far off. Boston's 56 wins trails only New York, Tampa and surprising Texas.

But can the Red Sox make up ground and get past their division rivals and into the playoffs? To answer this question, I usually turn to the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus and the MLB Odds at Coolstandings.com. The other thing I do is use my brain.

BP gives Boston an almost 25% chance of making the playoffs, with almost 20 of that coming from a wild card berth. For comparison, New York has a 91% chance. Coolstandings is a little more skeptical, giving Boston a 20% chance, with 16 of that being in the wild card. So looking at these numbers, and just using a little reason, Boston's biggest chance is making up the 5 games between it and Tampa.

But can they do that? Yes, they can. Many of Boston's walking wounded are returning, with Victor Martinez following Josh Beckett and Clay Buchhloz last night. Dustin Perdoia is likely to follow, and Jacoby Ellsbury has started rehabbing. This is a team that has seen Jeremy Hermida's .632 OPS see the most time in LF, followed by Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald. Ellsbury is very unlikely to be worse.

But the biggest problem is the bullpen. They have the worst bullpen in the AL by FIP and 3rd worst by xFIP. I don't really care if Okajima talks to reporters or not, but getting people out would be nice.

So instead of chasing Jayson Werth or an NL pitcher who might not be an upgrade over anything we have, let's go get some less expensive bullpen arms for the stretch drive, even if we only have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Remember, that's 20 points higher than Baltimore.