The Fall of Big Papi

Rumors are swirling around the world wide web that the very slow start of David Ortiz might force the Red Sox to release the formerly feared slugger and go find another DH. Bill Simmons recently discussed with Jonah Kerri on a podcast that the Red Sox really need a big-bopping left-handed bat to complement the three top hitters on the Sox, Youk (R), Pedroia (R), and Martinez (S).

Now I hate to speak of Big Papi as if he's already dead, but I'm going to. Here are my thoughts on hitters (inside the organization and out) who the Sox could add if Theo & Co. decide that the ship has sailed on his career.

Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox (AA)
Going into 2009, Anderson was the wunder-hitting prospect of the Red Sox system, a 20 year-old lefty bat destined for Fenway greatness. In 163 PAs at AA Portland, he hit 316/436/526. By 2010 or 2011, he would be with the big club, Youk moving over to 3B with Lars taking over 1B.

But then 2009 happened. Anderson spent the entire season in Portland, 522 PAs, with a bad 233/328/388. His patience remained, but everything else about his hitting seemed to disappear. But remember: He was 21. So he started 2010 in Portland again, and in 67 PAs he's hitting 328/388/672. He's unlikely to maintain that power level, but I'm hopeful this is a sign of progression. I really like Anderson, and I think he's the long-term solution at 1B/DH.

Adam's reco: Not sure he's ready, but if other options don't pan out, they should give him a shot.

Adam Dunn, 1B-OF, Washington Nationals
Check out his Fangraphs page. Dunn is in an incredibly consistent hitter. You will get a low batting average, high OBP and pop. And he sucks in the field. His UZR ratings in the OF are brutal, and if you buy his 2009 UZR at 1B, he's the worst first sacker in the history of the universe.

Of course, if he's replacing Ortiz, his positional deficiencies would be eliminated, except for occasional adventure-filled starts in the field. DH is Dunn's natural position, and the Nationals should leverage that and flip him to the AL for a couple of useful prospects.

Reco: Obviously I think this is good idea. And you could still use Lowell as the DH against particularly tough southpaws.

Paul Konerko, 1B-DH, Chicago White Sox
I don't think the White Sox will be interested in flipping Konerko anytime soon, but if the White Sox fall out of contention by midseason (which they will), the prospective free agent will become trade bait. Konerko does not hit the consistently level of Dunn, but he's been pretty consistent in his career. Decent batting average, decent OBP, decent to great pop. But he is a right-handed batter, and I'm not sure he's a better hitter than Lowell.

Reco: I would pass. Lowell or Anderson would be better options.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
On the North side of Chicago, there's another right-handed free-agent-to-be. Lee is an enigma; in 06 and 08, he was just OK, and he excelled in 07 and 09. He's off to a slow start this season, which fits with his recent even/odd trend. He's also a decent fielder, so that gives him value someone like Dunn wouldn't have.

Would the Cubs part with him? If they fall out of contention, they might. But their payroll in 2010 is $144 million (according to Cot's Contracts), so I think they will be reluctant to unload Lee unless they are way out of contention.

Reco: The Sox should keep an eye on this one, but I wouldn't count on him being available. But if he was, he would be a major upgrade over Ortiz and Lowell.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland
Now, I am not putting his name on to piss off Cleveland fans. As I was perusing rosters, his name intrigued me. He had a poor, injury-filled 2009. But from 05-08, this guy was was between 5-7.5 WAR a season. With the current injuries in the Boston outfield, Sizemore could fill in on a temporary basis at any OF position. And when everyone was healthy, they could rotate DH to keep everyone healthy and fresh.

Of course, Sizemore is under team control through 2012, so Cleveland would be very reluctant to move him (especially after unloading C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in the past two years).

Reco: If I was Theo I would ask, but I think the answer would be no, and the cost would be too high.

Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, Houston Astros
This continues my theme of older firstbasemen. Berkman is a switch-hitter who, like Lee, has mixed good and very good season recently. He will likely give you a .400 OBP and some pop. Like some of the other options, he is much better against RHP than LHP, so Lowell could be kept for a platoon.

His contract has a club option for 2011. The Astros always believe they are in it, so unless they are way out of it, it's likely they won't be inclined to deal the face of the franchise.

Reco: I think Berkman would be a decent fit, but I think the changes of the Astros parting ways with him are close to zero.

Price Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
After the ridiculous extension the Phillies just handed out to Ryan Howard, I think Prince Fielder is going to get a ton in arbitration in 2011. Would the Brewers think about moving him? Maybe, if they fall out of contention. He is not going to sign a discounted extension like Ryan Braun, especially if some team is going to overpay him like Philly did with Howard.

In four major league seasons, Fielder has sandwiched two very good seasons with two mediocre ones. Like Dunn, his natural position is probably DH, so a move to the AL is probably good for his long-term career prospects.

Reco: He will cost a lot if Milwaukee falls out of the race. I would ask, but quickly walk away if the price escalated above my comfort zone.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
I couldn't write a list like this without including Gonzalez. Now, we all know he's great hitter, though I think his greatness has been overblown a little bit. The Boston press corps has been selling him like the lefthanded Albert Pujols, which he is not. Still, he's very good.

Don't listen to what Padres management is saying in the press; they will trade him, it's just a matter of when.

Reco: It's obvious the Sox are flirting with a Gonzalez trade, and that would be great, but I think the price is going to be too high.

Final Recommendation
If Sox management decides to let Ortiz go, I think bringing up Lars Anderson and seeing what he's got at this point should be the first option. And if he doesn't hold up, I would pursue Gonzalez, Dunn or Berkman. And I do think, as sad as it makes me, that Big Papi's days in Boston are numbered.