The Red Sox can compete in AL East

Last night my dad asked, "What's up with the Sox?" I've read headlines asking if the Red Sox can compete with the Rays and the Yankees. And certainly fans are anxious about the mediocre start, which includes some poor hitting, fielding and pitching.

Just a few weeks ago the Red Sox were a fashionable choice to make the playoffs, and I agreed with many other prognosticators. Very little has changed in my estimation. Let's throw some reality on this start.

AL Easy Standings (April 19, 2010)
W L GB
Tampa Bay 10 3 -
New York 9 3 .5
Toronto 8 6 2.5
Boston 4 9 6
Baltimore 2 12 8.5

Not good, right? Well let's look at last year, same time frame.

AL East Standings (April 19, 2009)
W L GB
Toronto 10 4 -
Boston 7 6 2.5
New York 7 6 2.5
Baltimore 6 7 3.5
Tampa Bay 5 8 4.5

The standings looked nothing like this at the end of the year, with New York and Boston dominating, and Toronto fading. Also, the Red Sox won 8 straight against the Yankees last season, and the media jumped on that. The season series finished even at 9-9, so making too much about this Tampa Bay sweep is not prudent.

Are there some areas of concern? Sure. I would list them in this order.

• Outfield health. Mike Cameron is on the DL, Ellsbury probably should have been. It doesn't seem anyone knows when the OF will be at full strength again.
• John Lackey. In this piece on Fangraphs.com, author Jack Moore mentions that, through just his first two starts, he'd pitched differently than he has in the past and that his velocity was down. Obviously Monday's result enforced potential problems with Lackey.
• The DH spot. David Ortiz is struggling, and I've already made my case for a DH platoon with Mike Lowell. Epstein and Francona need to figure this out in the next 4-6 weeks.
• The defense. It's way too early to say whether the defensive changes have been successful or not. I've watched most of the games, and Cameron has not played well defensively, Ellsbury looks tentative going toward the wall in LF, and Tony Massarotti in the Boston Globe says Scutaro looks a little limited going to his left. Just something to watch.

As of April 19, 2010, I have no reason to believe the Red Sox will not make the playoffs. They are in a division with two other very good teams, so they may have a decent season and still miss the playoffs, but I don't see a sub-.500 team.