Why I Was Wrong About the Red Sox

A little more than a month ago, I wrote that the Rays and the Yankees couldn't be beat. Apparently I'm an idiot. You can look at the May 18, 2010, standings here. The Red Sox were 8.5 games behind the division-leading Rays, and 5 games behind the Yanks. Before games are played on June 22, Boston is tied with Tampa Bay, both teams half a game behind New York. How did this happen?

In there last 30 games, the Sox have been scorching hot, winning 22. The Yanks have been very good, winning 18, and the Rays have been poor, winning just 14. But we can dig deeper.

As of today, the most prolific offense in the American League, measured by the most runs scored. How is that possible? Going by games played, this is the most frequent lineup OF lineup with OPS+ in parentheses: Jeremy Hermida in LF (70), Darnell McDonald in CF (86), JD Drew in RF (116). Keep in mind that Hermida is an fielder at best, and McDonald is not a CF at all. Bill Hall has played a lot in the OF, including CF (though the numbers say he's been an average fielder, maybe even better than that). How can the offense be this good with this OF?

On offense it comes down to five key players, all of whom I will briefly discuss:

• Kevin Youkilis. He's awesome. He leads the team in most meaningful statistics. According to Fangraphs, he's the second best hitter in baseball this year. He runs the bases well, hits for power, takes his walks, fields his position well. It really irks me sometimes when I hear some Sox fans say that our lineup isn't what it used to be. Youk may not be Manny in his prime, but he's far superior to Jason Bay, and he's having an all-time awesome season. Open your eyes people.
• Adrian Beltre. All of you who thought that by mid-June Beltre would be a Top 15 hitter in the AL, raise your hands? Yeah, me neither. I think his BA with come down and so will his value at the plate (his BABIP is too high at .373), but I also think his fielding will get better. Either way, the signing has been a success (except for him breaking ribs).
• David Ortiz. Two months ago, I discussed trading for a Big Papi replacement. That would have been dumb. The guy is hitting 260/366/555. He's got 15 HRs, the most he's ever had by this point in a season. There's nothing fluky about his numbers. I am sorry Big Papi; can you forgive me?
• Dustin Pedroia. Another very good season from Pedroia, including his usual stellar glove work. Solid.
• Victor Martinez. He started off slow, but he's rebounded nicely. He's pounding LHP, and struggling a bit vs. RHP (which I think is an anomaly). I think he'll come back to earth against LHPs, and will improve against RHPs.

To sum up on the lineup, this is the best lineup in baseball (at least it has been thus far). It may not be the flashiest, but it has been the best.

Pitching has been a two-sided story. Again referencing Fangraphs, Boston has the 3rd best starting rotation in the league, thanks to awesome pitching by Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Dice-K and Lackey have been average, Wakefield has been OK, and Beckett has been awful.

Unfortunately, the bullpen is the other side of that coin. They have been awful, 2nd worst in the league, only bettering Baltimore. Do you know who's been above-average in the pen this year? Daniel Bard. That's it. Papelbon has been shaky, and the rest of the bullpen is very questionable.

But here we sit on June 22, and the Sox are in it. The Rays lineup looks average, and the young pitching is regressing a little. And the Yankees don't look so unbeatable. So forget everything I wrote a month ago about the Sox being done and go back to my AL preview. The Sox are going to make the playoffs.