The Fall of John Smoltz

I hated to see John Smoltz leave the Red Sox. I was very hopeful that Smoltz would prove to be the third starter in a power big three (joining Beckett and Lester). He turned out to be a bust. How bad was he? An ERA over 8, and his fastball was getting destroyed, marking only the second time in his career when his fastball wasn't a plus pitch (according to Fangraphs), and the only other time was last year.

If I just use my eyes, I thought he was done several starts ago. He wasn't fooling batters his second and third time through a lineup, and as Dave Roberts said on NESN during Smoltz's last start, he was doing a great job of throwing strikes, but was missing his spots within the zone.

The numbers tell a slightly different story. Of the three things pitchers have the most control over, he was well within career norms on two. He was striking out batters, and he was being very stingy with the base on balls. But he was giving up a lot of home runs, 1.8 per 9, more than double his career rate. His rate of flyballs turned into home runs was a 50% increase of his career.

Why the problem with the longball? Well, he hadn't given up a HR since July 30 at Texas, and had gone four starts (only one of which was a good start) without giving up a homer. During that same stretch, he walked 4 batters in 20 innings. So were the home runs pitching in hitters parks (Fenway, Baltimore, Texas, Yankee Launching Pad), or did he suddely lose his ability to keep it in the yard.

A lot of his struggles, again according to the numbers I have, were bad luck. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was a huge .390, up 100 points on his career numbers. Most research has shown that pitchers don't have a lot of control on that number. Could it be the poor defense behind him? Maybe, but other Sox starters have kept their BABIP at career levels (including Beckett).

So was it the right decision to designate Smoltz for assignment? I would say yes, if the Sox had a lot of options. But when signing Paul Byrd to a minor league contract is one of the solutions, color me skeptical.

Did Sox management make the right decision? Maybe. But I think I would rather have a struggling Smoltz where the light might have come on, versus the other options.