Now, for most people who know me or who read my little blog, it goes without saying that I'm an idiot. I get sports stuff wrong all the time, like my 2010 MLB predictions (nice call on the Mariners) and being certain the Celtics would prevail over the Lakers in the 2010 NBA Finals.
So when I read this morning Dick Harmon's take in the Deseret News that BYU could be considering breaking from the MWC and becoming independent, I was ticked off that I hadn't thought of it. Of course this was an option.
Dick does a good job pointing out some of the reasons. To sum up, BYU has HD broadcasting capabilities, a national following, and seems to be likely to be left out of the Big 12 or any other major expansion because of its religious affiliation. So of course it's a course of action the athletic department and university leadership would consider.
It's an interesting prospect. BYU, because of its religious affiliation with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons). There are approximately 6 million Mormons in the United States, though only a fraction of those have a passion for Brigham Young University, and only some of those care about BYU sports. Could BYU sustain itself as an independent?
In football, I think so. EPSN likes BYU because the school provides decent national TV ratings and has a national brand (as opposed to TCU, which arguably has a better program). But TCU has a very small following, while BYU has shown itself to be a national draw.
But besides potentially a slightly bigger pay day than staying with MWC football, what could the benefit be? Well, that's hard to say. With Boise State, TCU and BYU, the MWC is a borderline BCS conference. Had Utah stayed, it would have been almost impossible for the big wigs to keep the MWC out of the BCS mix without potentially risking outside innovation. The BCS should still include the MWC, but the draw isn't as strong as it would have been. On its own? BYU would have to put together a killer schedule and nearly run to the table to break into the BCS party. And with most bowl games affiliated with conferences, the postseason could be a problem.
It goes without saying that BYU would have to maintain conference affiliations for the other sports, with the MWC being the logical match in most sports.
Why wouldn't they do this? I think one of the biggest reasons Dick left out of his article. I don't think the LDS Church wants to turn BYU-TV into a sports network. Yes, BYU already has a network on satellite TV and most major cable providers. But right now it's filled with educational and religious programming. Forget, for a second, whether the satellite and cable companies will roll if they switch its non-profit mission to a sports channel. Would the Church even want to do that? Does it fill the mission of the channel? I think the likely answer is no.
I am intrigued by independence. I would love to see BYU create rivalries with Notre Dame and other national programs, and maintain rivalries with Utah and Air Force. And let's never play Utah State again.
I don't think this is likely to happen, but it's an interesting thought.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
The Red Sox can still smell the playoffs
Before games are played on July 27, the Red Sox sit 8 games behind the division-leading Yankees and five games behind the wild card-leading Rays. Many prognosticators had Boston, New York and Tampa as the best three teams in the American League coming into 2010, and they haven't been too far off. Boston's 56 wins trails only New York, Tampa and surprising Texas.
But can the Red Sox make up ground and get past their division rivals and into the playoffs? To answer this question, I usually turn to the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus and the MLB Odds at Coolstandings.com. The other thing I do is use my brain.
BP gives Boston an almost 25% chance of making the playoffs, with almost 20 of that coming from a wild card berth. For comparison, New York has a 91% chance. Coolstandings is a little more skeptical, giving Boston a 20% chance, with 16 of that being in the wild card. So looking at these numbers, and just using a little reason, Boston's biggest chance is making up the 5 games between it and Tampa.
But can they do that? Yes, they can. Many of Boston's walking wounded are returning, with Victor Martinez following Josh Beckett and Clay Buchhloz last night. Dustin Perdoia is likely to follow, and Jacoby Ellsbury has started rehabbing. This is a team that has seen Jeremy Hermida's .632 OPS see the most time in LF, followed by Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald. Ellsbury is very unlikely to be worse.
But the biggest problem is the bullpen. They have the worst bullpen in the AL by FIP and 3rd worst by xFIP. I don't really care if Okajima talks to reporters or not, but getting people out would be nice.
So instead of chasing Jayson Werth or an NL pitcher who might not be an upgrade over anything we have, let's go get some less expensive bullpen arms for the stretch drive, even if we only have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Remember, that's 20 points higher than Baltimore.
But can the Red Sox make up ground and get past their division rivals and into the playoffs? To answer this question, I usually turn to the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus and the MLB Odds at Coolstandings.com. The other thing I do is use my brain.
BP gives Boston an almost 25% chance of making the playoffs, with almost 20 of that coming from a wild card berth. For comparison, New York has a 91% chance. Coolstandings is a little more skeptical, giving Boston a 20% chance, with 16 of that being in the wild card. So looking at these numbers, and just using a little reason, Boston's biggest chance is making up the 5 games between it and Tampa.
But can they do that? Yes, they can. Many of Boston's walking wounded are returning, with Victor Martinez following Josh Beckett and Clay Buchhloz last night. Dustin Perdoia is likely to follow, and Jacoby Ellsbury has started rehabbing. This is a team that has seen Jeremy Hermida's .632 OPS see the most time in LF, followed by Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald. Ellsbury is very unlikely to be worse.
But the biggest problem is the bullpen. They have the worst bullpen in the AL by FIP and 3rd worst by xFIP. I don't really care if Okajima talks to reporters or not, but getting people out would be nice.
So instead of chasing Jayson Werth or an NL pitcher who might not be an upgrade over anything we have, let's go get some less expensive bullpen arms for the stretch drive, even if we only have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Remember, that's 20 points higher than Baltimore.
Friday, July 23, 2010
On DVD: 'The Road' and "Wolverine'
I watched a couple of movies recently while traveling, and here are some thoughts.
The Road (2009): What a hauntingly good film. Vigo Mortenson and young Kodi Smit-McPhee form a powerful duo, who spend most of the time together, with interludes of interaction with other characters in this post-apocalyptic drama. It is violent, and is it dark, but the film reeled me in from the beginning and didn't let go of me until I sat there stunned and emotionally drained during the closing credits. Like Children of Men (which I reviewed briefly earlier this year), it's really not a sci-fi movie; it's really a dark tale of a father and son, and one that, though I'm not likely to watch again, I'm glad I did.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009): I reviewed this last year after it came out, and I can tell you I actually enjoyed it more this time without the weight of the 20-year expectations of a Wolverine movie. It still had it's problems: the last fight scene was too over-the-top; the special effects were sub-par; and there are too many characters. But I liked it better the second time. Hugh Jackman is awesome as Logan, Ryan Reynolds is good as Deadpool (though they butchered his charater a little), and the story was interesting. Is it a great movie? No. Does it belong among the best super-hero movies? No. But it's very entertaining, and I would certainly see a sequel.
The Road (2009): What a hauntingly good film. Vigo Mortenson and young Kodi Smit-McPhee form a powerful duo, who spend most of the time together, with interludes of interaction with other characters in this post-apocalyptic drama. It is violent, and is it dark, but the film reeled me in from the beginning and didn't let go of me until I sat there stunned and emotionally drained during the closing credits. Like Children of Men (which I reviewed briefly earlier this year), it's really not a sci-fi movie; it's really a dark tale of a father and son, and one that, though I'm not likely to watch again, I'm glad I did.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009): I reviewed this last year after it came out, and I can tell you I actually enjoyed it more this time without the weight of the 20-year expectations of a Wolverine movie. It still had it's problems: the last fight scene was too over-the-top; the special effects were sub-par; and there are too many characters. But I liked it better the second time. Hugh Jackman is awesome as Logan, Ryan Reynolds is good as Deadpool (though they butchered his charater a little), and the story was interesting. Is it a great movie? No. Does it belong among the best super-hero movies? No. But it's very entertaining, and I would certainly see a sequel.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
All-MLB Team: American League
You can check our yesterday's All-NL team, and also last year's team. On with the show!
C -- J. Mauer, Min (2.1, -1 293/368/424 345). This was actually pretty tough. Mauer is not as awesome as usual this year, and Carlos Santana, the remarkable Cleveland rookie, made me think about moving Mauer off the top of the heap. But I didn't. Honorable mention: C. Santana, Cle
1B -- J. Morneau, Min (5.0, 8.0 345/437/618 447). I hated knocking Youkilis off the perch, but Morneau is either having a career year, or he's tranformed into Pujols North. I couldn't pass on him. Honorable mentions: K. Youkilis, Bos; M. Cabrera, Det
2B -- R. Cano, NYY (4.4, 5.6 336/389/556 401). Cano has transformed from an overrated Yankee into one of the best players in baseball. He and Pedroia are really the two best second sackers in baseball, both in the same division. Honorable mention: Pedroia, Bos
3B -- E. Longoria, TB (3.7, 1.6 300/381/513 389). Longoria is the man, sitting on the peak waiting for someone to challenge him. Though Beltre has been very good for Boston, no one is Longoria. Honorable mention: A. Beltre, Bos
SS -- D. Jeter, NYY (1.8, -0.4 274/340/392 328). AL shortstop is not the glamour position it used to be. It pains me to leave Jeter in this position for another year, but he is who I would pick. Has he been the most valuable in 2010? No, Alex Gonzalez in Toronto has been more valuable (2.4 WAR). And Scutaro (Bos) and Pennington (Oak) have been as valuable. But I would still pick Jeter. (Someone shoot me.) Honorable mentions: A. Gonzalez, Tor; M. Scutaro, Bos; C. Pennington, Oak
LF -- C. Crawford, TB (4.7, 15.2 317/373/511 393). Josh Hamilton (Tex) is just as valuable this year, but Crawford's defense is tremendous, and Hamilton is up-and-down a little over time. So this wasn't easy, but Crawford's still the man. Honorable mention: J. Hamilton, Tex.
CF -- T. Hunter, LAA (2.9, 14.9 292/379/502 372). Hunter is having a bit of a career resurgence the past season and a half. He's flashing the leather, and his bat is more valuable than at any time in his career. When he signed the 5-year/$80 million deal with the Angels before the 2008 season, I thought he would be way overpaid by the end of the deal. Though that still may be true (who knows what his value will be in 2012), right now he's worth it. Honorable mentions: A. Rios, CWS; A. Jackson, Det
RF -- S. Choo, Cle (2.8, 2.1 286/390/475 382). I hate to unseat Ichiro, as he's been as valuable as Choo this season. And technically Swisher (NYY) has been a little more valuable (though we're splitting hairs). The truth is, this was a tough one, so I would take the power/youth of Choo over the defense/speed of Ichiro. Honorable mentions: Ichiro, Sea; N. Swisher, NYY
Starters
1. C. Lee, Sea/Tex (4.1 2.59 2.55); 2. F. Liriano, Min (4.5 3.76 2.16); 3. J. Lester, Bos (3.9 2.81 2.97); 4. Grienke, KC (2.8 3.67 3.53); 5. J. Weaver, LAA (3.5 3.16 3.08). Honorable mentions: F. Hernandez, Sea; J. Verlander, Det
Lee and Liriano are clearly the class of the AL this season; Lester is alone after them. After that, it was hard to chose. I think Grienke would thrive in Boston/New York/Anyplace but Kansas City, and Weaver has taken a great stride forward.
Relievers
1. M. Rivera, NYY (1.3 1.01 2.25); 2. M. Thorton, CWS (1.6 2.58 1.90); 3. Putz, CWS (1.2 1.50 2.10); 4. Balfour, TB (1.1 2.20 2.40); 5. F. Francisco, Tex (1.2 3.92 2.55). Honorable mentions: D. Oliver, Tex; D. Bard, Bos
I wrote earlier this year just how amazing Mariano is. The AL reliever corps are not as strong as their NL brethren, but it's a good group. Thorton and Putz have been awesome on Chicago's South Side, and Balfour continues his consistent, top-level performance.
C -- J. Mauer, Min (2.1, -1 293/368/424 345). This was actually pretty tough. Mauer is not as awesome as usual this year, and Carlos Santana, the remarkable Cleveland rookie, made me think about moving Mauer off the top of the heap. But I didn't. Honorable mention: C. Santana, Cle
1B -- J. Morneau, Min (5.0, 8.0 345/437/618 447). I hated knocking Youkilis off the perch, but Morneau is either having a career year, or he's tranformed into Pujols North. I couldn't pass on him. Honorable mentions: K. Youkilis, Bos; M. Cabrera, Det
2B -- R. Cano, NYY (4.4, 5.6 336/389/556 401). Cano has transformed from an overrated Yankee into one of the best players in baseball. He and Pedroia are really the two best second sackers in baseball, both in the same division. Honorable mention: Pedroia, Bos
3B -- E. Longoria, TB (3.7, 1.6 300/381/513 389). Longoria is the man, sitting on the peak waiting for someone to challenge him. Though Beltre has been very good for Boston, no one is Longoria. Honorable mention: A. Beltre, Bos
SS -- D. Jeter, NYY (1.8, -0.4 274/340/392 328). AL shortstop is not the glamour position it used to be. It pains me to leave Jeter in this position for another year, but he is who I would pick. Has he been the most valuable in 2010? No, Alex Gonzalez in Toronto has been more valuable (2.4 WAR). And Scutaro (Bos) and Pennington (Oak) have been as valuable. But I would still pick Jeter. (Someone shoot me.) Honorable mentions: A. Gonzalez, Tor; M. Scutaro, Bos; C. Pennington, Oak
LF -- C. Crawford, TB (4.7, 15.2 317/373/511 393). Josh Hamilton (Tex) is just as valuable this year, but Crawford's defense is tremendous, and Hamilton is up-and-down a little over time. So this wasn't easy, but Crawford's still the man. Honorable mention: J. Hamilton, Tex.
CF -- T. Hunter, LAA (2.9, 14.9 292/379/502 372). Hunter is having a bit of a career resurgence the past season and a half. He's flashing the leather, and his bat is more valuable than at any time in his career. When he signed the 5-year/$80 million deal with the Angels before the 2008 season, I thought he would be way overpaid by the end of the deal. Though that still may be true (who knows what his value will be in 2012), right now he's worth it. Honorable mentions: A. Rios, CWS; A. Jackson, Det
RF -- S. Choo, Cle (2.8, 2.1 286/390/475 382). I hate to unseat Ichiro, as he's been as valuable as Choo this season. And technically Swisher (NYY) has been a little more valuable (though we're splitting hairs). The truth is, this was a tough one, so I would take the power/youth of Choo over the defense/speed of Ichiro. Honorable mentions: Ichiro, Sea; N. Swisher, NYY
Starters
1. C. Lee, Sea/Tex (4.1 2.59 2.55); 2. F. Liriano, Min (4.5 3.76 2.16); 3. J. Lester, Bos (3.9 2.81 2.97); 4. Grienke, KC (2.8 3.67 3.53); 5. J. Weaver, LAA (3.5 3.16 3.08). Honorable mentions: F. Hernandez, Sea; J. Verlander, Det
Lee and Liriano are clearly the class of the AL this season; Lester is alone after them. After that, it was hard to chose. I think Grienke would thrive in Boston/New York/Anyplace but Kansas City, and Weaver has taken a great stride forward.
Relievers
1. M. Rivera, NYY (1.3 1.01 2.25); 2. M. Thorton, CWS (1.6 2.58 1.90); 3. Putz, CWS (1.2 1.50 2.10); 4. Balfour, TB (1.1 2.20 2.40); 5. F. Francisco, Tex (1.2 3.92 2.55). Honorable mentions: D. Oliver, Tex; D. Bard, Bos
I wrote earlier this year just how amazing Mariano is. The AL reliever corps are not as strong as their NL brethren, but it's a good group. Thorton and Putz have been awesome on Chicago's South Side, and Balfour continues his consistent, top-level performance.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
All-MLB Team: National League
Here's my second annual All-MLB team (here's last year's squad). I'm going to start with the NL.
Just like last year, I'm looking for the best players. If I had to win the pennant this year, who would I pick. I weighed 2010 performance heavily, and I also didn't unseat an incumbent from last year unless there was clearly a better choice.
And here's the format: A. Mangum, Team (WAR, Fielding AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA). All stats are from Fangraphs.com. If the names are in italics, the player is the incumbent.
All NL-Team
C -- B. McCann, Atl (2.7, 1 267/380/447 364). McCann is the class of the NL catchers, and he brings it with a powerful bat (though he's down a little this year). He's also passable behind the plate. Honorable mentions: M. Olivo, Col; G. Soto, ChC
1B -- A. Pujols, Stl (3.4, -1.1 308/416/576 412). Sometimes we might forget just how remarkable Pujols has been over his nine seasons coming into 2010. Joey Votto (Cin) has been more valuable this year(4.2 WAR), but I would take Pujols for the stretch drive (and next year too). Honorable mentions: J. Votto, Cin; A. Gonzalez, SD
2B -- M. Prado, Atl (3.2 1.1 325/367/484 368). If Chase Utley (Phi) wasn't hurt, I'd pick him, but he is, and Prado has been equally valuable this year. So Utley is unseated for a year. Honorable mentions: C. Utley, Phi; D. Uggla, Fla; B. Phillips, Cin
3B -- D. Wright, NYM (4.1, 3.3 314/392/532 396). This is one of the toughest calls in either league. Wright and Zimmerman (Was) are pretty much equals at this point, two dueling virtuosos at the hot corner. Wright has been slightly more valuable, so I kept him, but this is really a pick'em. Honorable mention: R. Zimmerman, Was
SS -- H. Ramirez, Fla (2.7, -6.1 301/381/485 378). There is no doubt that Ramirez is an offensive force, even if he's off his career wOBA number (393). But his fielding is suspect (despite good range and enough talent to be at least average), and apparently he's an attitude problem. I would have gladly unseated him, but if I wanted to win games between now and November, he's the guy. Honorable mention: S. Drew, Ari
LF -- M. Holliday, Stl (4.4, 9.2 309/388/536 399). Last year it was Manny, but he's been limited due to injury. So here comes Mr. Holliday, the $120 million man. He has delivered in the first year of his shiny new contract. And, really, he's the only awesome LF in the NL right now. Honorable mention: A. Torres, SF
CF -- A. Pagan, NYM (3.2, 12.5 306/362/466 366). With incumbent (and teammate) Carlos Beltran sidelined by injury, Pagan has filled in nicely. Technically Marlon Byrd has been more valuable (3.8 WAR), but I would rather have Pagan and his awesome fielding roaming center. Honorable mention: M Byrd, ChC
RF -- J. Upton, Ari (2.4, 5.7 269/354/460 360). Besides 3B, this was the toughest call in the NL. I really like Upton, but he's down this year. But besides the breakout of Heyward in Atlanta, the rest of the field is pretty comparable to Upton. And I wouldn't trust Corey Hart any farther than I can throw him -- which I couldn't at all (he's a bid dude). Honorable mentions: J. Heyward, Atl; C. Hart, Mil; R. Ludwick, Stl; J. Werth, Phi
Starting rotation (WAR, ERA, FIP)
1. J. Johnson, Fla (4.7, 1.62, 2.25); 2. R. Halladay, Phi (4.4, 2.40, 2.97); 3. Y. Gallardo, Mil (3.0, 2.58, 2.98); 4. U. Jiminez, Col (3.6, 2.38, 3.23); 5. A. Wainwright, Stl (3.6, 2.02, 3.05). Honorable mentions: T. Lincecum, SF; R. Oswalt, Hou; C. Kershaw, LAD
It was tough leaving Lincecum off the list, but the five are picked are awesome, and Lincecum is fading behind the pack. Johnson is likely the best starter in the league, and Halladay is a stud. Jiminez has come back to earth, but his stuff is still sick.
Relievers
1. J. Broxton, LAD (1.7, 3.15, 1.60); 2. S. Marshall, ChC (1.6, 1.88, 2.06); 3. Belisle, Col (1.6, 2.72, 2.45); 4. Bell, SD (1.4, 2.01, 2.06); 5. B. Wilson, SF (1.6, 1.98, 1.98). Honorable mentions: L. Nunez, Fla; B. Wagner, Atl; C. Marmol, ChC
Not a single holdover from last year, which basically tells you how mercurial relievers are. That being said, Broxton is awesome, and Bell and Wilson are studs.
Just like last year, I'm looking for the best players. If I had to win the pennant this year, who would I pick. I weighed 2010 performance heavily, and I also didn't unseat an incumbent from last year unless there was clearly a better choice.
And here's the format: A. Mangum, Team (WAR, Fielding AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA). All stats are from Fangraphs.com. If the names are in italics, the player is the incumbent.
All NL-Team
C -- B. McCann, Atl (2.7, 1 267/380/447 364). McCann is the class of the NL catchers, and he brings it with a powerful bat (though he's down a little this year). He's also passable behind the plate. Honorable mentions: M. Olivo, Col; G. Soto, ChC
1B -- A. Pujols, Stl (3.4, -1.1 308/416/576 412). Sometimes we might forget just how remarkable Pujols has been over his nine seasons coming into 2010. Joey Votto (Cin) has been more valuable this year(4.2 WAR), but I would take Pujols for the stretch drive (and next year too). Honorable mentions: J. Votto, Cin; A. Gonzalez, SD
2B -- M. Prado, Atl (3.2 1.1 325/367/484 368). If Chase Utley (Phi) wasn't hurt, I'd pick him, but he is, and Prado has been equally valuable this year. So Utley is unseated for a year. Honorable mentions: C. Utley, Phi; D. Uggla, Fla; B. Phillips, Cin
3B -- D. Wright, NYM (4.1, 3.3 314/392/532 396). This is one of the toughest calls in either league. Wright and Zimmerman (Was) are pretty much equals at this point, two dueling virtuosos at the hot corner. Wright has been slightly more valuable, so I kept him, but this is really a pick'em. Honorable mention: R. Zimmerman, Was
SS -- H. Ramirez, Fla (2.7, -6.1 301/381/485 378). There is no doubt that Ramirez is an offensive force, even if he's off his career wOBA number (393). But his fielding is suspect (despite good range and enough talent to be at least average), and apparently he's an attitude problem. I would have gladly unseated him, but if I wanted to win games between now and November, he's the guy. Honorable mention: S. Drew, Ari
LF -- M. Holliday, Stl (4.4, 9.2 309/388/536 399). Last year it was Manny, but he's been limited due to injury. So here comes Mr. Holliday, the $120 million man. He has delivered in the first year of his shiny new contract. And, really, he's the only awesome LF in the NL right now. Honorable mention: A. Torres, SF
CF -- A. Pagan, NYM (3.2, 12.5 306/362/466 366). With incumbent (and teammate) Carlos Beltran sidelined by injury, Pagan has filled in nicely. Technically Marlon Byrd has been more valuable (3.8 WAR), but I would rather have Pagan and his awesome fielding roaming center. Honorable mention: M Byrd, ChC
RF -- J. Upton, Ari (2.4, 5.7 269/354/460 360). Besides 3B, this was the toughest call in the NL. I really like Upton, but he's down this year. But besides the breakout of Heyward in Atlanta, the rest of the field is pretty comparable to Upton. And I wouldn't trust Corey Hart any farther than I can throw him -- which I couldn't at all (he's a bid dude). Honorable mentions: J. Heyward, Atl; C. Hart, Mil; R. Ludwick, Stl; J. Werth, Phi
Starting rotation (WAR, ERA, FIP)
1. J. Johnson, Fla (4.7, 1.62, 2.25); 2. R. Halladay, Phi (4.4, 2.40, 2.97); 3. Y. Gallardo, Mil (3.0, 2.58, 2.98); 4. U. Jiminez, Col (3.6, 2.38, 3.23); 5. A. Wainwright, Stl (3.6, 2.02, 3.05). Honorable mentions: T. Lincecum, SF; R. Oswalt, Hou; C. Kershaw, LAD
It was tough leaving Lincecum off the list, but the five are picked are awesome, and Lincecum is fading behind the pack. Johnson is likely the best starter in the league, and Halladay is a stud. Jiminez has come back to earth, but his stuff is still sick.
Relievers
1. J. Broxton, LAD (1.7, 3.15, 1.60); 2. S. Marshall, ChC (1.6, 1.88, 2.06); 3. Belisle, Col (1.6, 2.72, 2.45); 4. Bell, SD (1.4, 2.01, 2.06); 5. B. Wilson, SF (1.6, 1.98, 1.98). Honorable mentions: L. Nunez, Fla; B. Wagner, Atl; C. Marmol, ChC
Not a single holdover from last year, which basically tells you how mercurial relievers are. That being said, Broxton is awesome, and Bell and Wilson are studs.
Friday, July 9, 2010
LeBron: From King to Jester
I didn't see the big production last night; I was traveling with my wife and two daughters, and got back to our house hours after it was done. I have watched highlights, and red scathing POVs like Tony Massarotti's in the Boston Globe. And I read Bill Simmons' preview as well.
So where do I sit? Well, LeBron is an idiot, that is clear. He basically raised a big middle finger to an entire fan base and possibly even a state, and he seems oblivious. And he did it on national television in a bizarre, inhuman way. All very strange.
What I Know
So where do I sit? Well, LeBron is an idiot, that is clear. He basically raised a big middle finger to an entire fan base and possibly even a state, and he seems oblivious. And he did it on national television in a bizarre, inhuman way. All very strange.
What I Know
- If I were a Cavs fan, I would hope for LeBron's eternal destruction until my dying breath. Not just because he left (potentially forgivable), but the spectacle he made of it, and the poor effort he showed in the playoffs against the Celtics.
- I now have a new least-favorite team in the NBA, and yes, the Heat have eclipsed the Lakers. I think LeBron and Bosh are glory-hogging idiots, and Wade is only a level below them in that department. I may not hope for their eternal destruction, but I will hope for lots of disappointment for the Miami Heat.
- There are no guarantees of NBA championships, even with LeFraud, Bosh and Wade on the roster. Are they the 2011 Eastern Conference favorites? Today, no. I need to see the rest of that roster. But likely Riley will work some magic and get a decent team together. But Boston is still pretty good, and Orlando is much deeper than Miami will be.
What I Believe
- LeBron should have gone to Chicago. To me, it's all about legacy. If LeBron really wants to be remembered as one of the greatest ever, I think teaming with Derek Rose, Noah and Boozer in Chicago would have given him a contending team that would have been his team; there's no doubt to me that Miami is still Wade's team. And no, he should not have gone to the Knicks. They would have stunk for another 2-4 years. Easy decision, even if it is New York.
- If LeBron, Bosh and Wade win a string of NBA titles (as I mentioned above, it's a tough feat even with all that talent), I think LeFraud's legacy is tainted by the way he left Cleveland and by the fact that he never won a title without Wade. Time will tell, but he might grow to detest Wade.
What We Don't Know
- If this was all a foregone conclusion, and if all of the gameplaying by Wade, Bosh and LeBron was nothing more than media fodder, or as Simmons mentions in his column, a potential plot for a reality series, than shame on them. Totally pathetic.
- How many (if any) title Miami will win. Like I wrote above, winning an NBA title isn't easy. Because of salary cap realities, Miami will not have a deep roster, and they will need health and some luck to win in 2011. After that? Who knows. A new collective bargaining agreement could make it easier or harder for them or easier. And a major injury to any three of them would stall the whole thing (and bring a evil smile to the entire city of Cleveland).
- If LeBron is really one of the best players ever. I (among a host of others) have been touting this for years, that LeBron's statistical dominance makes him a once-in-a-generation type of player. But what kind? Will he be remembered like Bernard King? Oscar? Jordan? Magic? Bird? Malone? Winning titles in the NBA means more for a legacy than in any other of the US sports. Look at Robert Horry; good role player, who's status has sky-rocketed due to his being on so many championship squads. Know what we'd call the Horry equivalent in baseball? Lucky. But because basketball is such a team game, we give Horry extra credit for his teams' success, and we torch Karl Malone for his teams' playoff failures.
If someone reads this in 10 years (highly unlikely) or a column like Massarotti's, this may seem silly. LeBron may have 4 titles and have cemented himself as one of the greatest players of all time. The only people who may still care about any of this are Cavs fans and older fans who dislike him for the way he disrespected the game by making such a pathetic spectacle of himself. But I think it's more likely we've seen a likable hero transformed into a villain.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Looking back at some great MLB decisions
Recently came across Jon Heyman's article at SI.com via Rob Neyer on ESPN.com where he examined the best 15 baseball management decisions of the past year. I loved the list and wanted to talk about a couple of them.
- 1. The Nationals' signing of Stephen Strasburg. In June of last year, I opined that the Washington Nationals should pass on drafting the phenom. I then stated a few months later that the Nats made the right decision, mainly because they signed him for less than I thought they would. And of course, Strasburg has been awesome so far, putting up unbelievable numbers: 2.27 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 13.64 K/9, 1.5 WAR. All of this in just 5 starts and about 32 innings. Amazing. But let's not get too crazy. While Heyman is right that it was a good decision, Strasburg might be a once-in-a-lifetime player, or he might be Mark Prior. Time will tell.
- 4. The Padres' decision not to trade Adrian Gonzalez and/or Heath Bell. I predicted that the Padres would finish a distant fourth in the NL West, but San Diego GM Jed Hoyer had a better handle on his team than I did (no big surprise). He held onto his two best players, and they have both contributed to one of baseball's biggest surprises (3.3 and 1.1 WAR respectively).
- 6. The White Sox's decision last August to claim Alex Rios and his $12-million-a-year contract on waivers. Man, I thought the White Sox were crazy when they claimed Rios. And now he's hitting 312/368/534, which would be his best line ever. Will he stay there? Not likely, but he's a great fielder, and even if he falls down to his 06-08 level, Chicago made a great call.
- 9. The Rangers' decision to stick with manager Ron Washington. This is one where I think Heyman missed the mark. Yes, the Rangers lead the AL West by 4.5 games, but there's no reason to believe another manager couldn't have done just as well. I think the decision was still very hypocritical of a sport that is punishing drug users.
- 14. Adrian Beltre's call to turn down Oakland's multiyear offer to sign with Boston for one year. As Heyman points out, if Beltre had signed with the A's, he might have been stuck with the same moniker he had in Seattle: great glove, bad bat. Now he's hitting 340/379/547, thanks to a 404/649 OBP/SLG at cozy Fenway. (Editor's note: These are actually his away splits. He's his OBP/SLG is acually 370/500 at Fenway. Wow.) And he's been great with the glove. This guy is making himself a lot of money, and I hope the Sox resign him, as long as he stops hurting our LFs.
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