Nationals should pass on Strasburg

Today is the MLB draft, an event very few pay attention to, except for us baseball nuts. MLB is broadcasting it tonight in primetime (6pm eastern) and ESPN and other sites have done a great job covering it. One of my favorite reads is Keith Law over at ESPN.com.

The conventional wisdom is that the Washington Nationals should select Stephen Strasburg, a powerful righty out of San Diego State , with the first pick in the draft. This is an important (and potentially expensive) draft for the Nationals, who also have the 9th pick.

Despite the conventional wisdom, I think the Nationals should pass on Strasburg. My reasons are explained below.

Can’t Miss Pitching Prospects Often Miss
Alan Schwarz over at the NY Times recently wrote an article where he talked about the most recent ‘best pitching prospects ever’ list. Since Strasburg was born, this name is littered with failures (Ben McDonald, Todd Van Popel, Brien Taylor) and at least one semi-success (Mark Prior).

Now there is nothing scientific about Schwarz’s analysis. He’s just drawing a picture of the risk ‘can’t miss’ pitching prospects pose to baseball teams. And with the limited resources the Nationals have, this seems like too high of a risk.

Lame Competition
Strasburg has been pitching in the Mountain West Conference. Read that last sentence again. Besides TCU, there isn’t a national-level baseball team in the conference. He racked up a lot his big numbers against the likes of Colorado State and the University of Utah, not Texas. So let’s not get carried away by the numbers.

On top of that, most accounts say he only threw two pitches in college. That’s not a bad thing, and not atypical. But when I hear reports that his other pitches are plus pitches, I don’t believe it. And I won’t believe it until I see it. Unlike other observers, I can’t picture this guy in the majors this year (except for maybe a bullpen cup of coffee) for two reasons: 1) He only has two pitches, and starters at the major league level usually need more than that; 2) When Scott Boras is the agent, negotiations take time.

Money
The Nationals are not swimming in cash. Their local TV audience is near zero, attendance is lagging, and there’s not much hope on the horizon. Do you really want to commit upwards of $35 million to a player who a few weeks ago was pitching against BYU? That’s a lot of money you can’t spend anywhere else, including on signing international propects (ethically, of course).

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So there are my reasons. This is not a rant against Boras; he is doing what he’s supposed to be doing, which is maximizing the return for his client. The Nationals can draft Dustin Ackerly out of UNC and save some cash, and still have a player 2-3 years from contributing at the highest level.

Yes, all draft picks are a risk. But the Nationals cannot afford this risk, and they should let the Mariners have the pleasure of drafting Strasburg.