More thoughts on Strasburg

My brother (a Nats fan) and I have a conversation on Facebook regarding my previous article about the Nationals decision to draft/not-draft Stephen Strasburg out of SDSU (which they did). My brother had some great points, which included:

• These aren't your older brother's Nationals. Since Bowden left as GM, the Nats have opened the wallets, and even before that made a run at Teixira and signed Adam Dunn. So a $15-30 million expenditure on a draft pick would not financially cripple the franchise.
• Last year the Nats failed to sign their first round pick and suffered a huge PR hit because of it. It's unlikely they would draft Strasburg unless they really believed they could sign him.
• The talent drop-off between Strasburg and the next available choices was pretty deep, according to most talent evaluators.

I don't think drafting Strasburg is an awful decision, and I think it could be a great one if both of the following two things happen:

1. Strasburg signs for less than $20 million. Yes, it would still be a record for a draft pick, but Peter Gammons said on Wednesday Night Baseball he thought it would be $25 million. That's too much for a player who's never thrown a pitch outside of college.
2. Strasburg must get to the majors in 2010 and produce. You can't be spending that much money on someone for seasoning. Give him a couple months in the minors, and then bring him up to the show (even if it's as a set-up man in the bullpen for the second half of the year).

I do think Strasburg is likely to become a very good pitcher, and I would love this to work out for everyone. But I have a feeling that we'll look back 5 years from now and wonder why the heck the Nationals spent $20 million on a college pitcher.

Nationals should pass on Strasburg

Today is the MLB draft, an event very few pay attention to, except for us baseball nuts. MLB is broadcasting it tonight in primetime (6pm eastern) and ESPN and other sites have done a great job covering it. One of my favorite reads is Keith Law over at ESPN.com.

The conventional wisdom is that the Washington Nationals should select Stephen Strasburg, a powerful righty out of San Diego State , with the first pick in the draft. This is an important (and potentially expensive) draft for the Nationals, who also have the 9th pick.

Despite the conventional wisdom, I think the Nationals should pass on Strasburg. My reasons are explained below.

Can’t Miss Pitching Prospects Often Miss
Alan Schwarz over at the NY Times recently wrote an article where he talked about the most recent ‘best pitching prospects ever’ list. Since Strasburg was born, this name is littered with failures (Ben McDonald, Todd Van Popel, Brien Taylor) and at least one semi-success (Mark Prior).

Now there is nothing scientific about Schwarz’s analysis. He’s just drawing a picture of the risk ‘can’t miss’ pitching prospects pose to baseball teams. And with the limited resources the Nationals have, this seems like too high of a risk.

Lame Competition
Strasburg has been pitching in the Mountain West Conference. Read that last sentence again. Besides TCU, there isn’t a national-level baseball team in the conference. He racked up a lot his big numbers against the likes of Colorado State and the University of Utah, not Texas. So let’s not get carried away by the numbers.

On top of that, most accounts say he only threw two pitches in college. That’s not a bad thing, and not atypical. But when I hear reports that his other pitches are plus pitches, I don’t believe it. And I won’t believe it until I see it. Unlike other observers, I can’t picture this guy in the majors this year (except for maybe a bullpen cup of coffee) for two reasons: 1) He only has two pitches, and starters at the major league level usually need more than that; 2) When Scott Boras is the agent, negotiations take time.

Money
The Nationals are not swimming in cash. Their local TV audience is near zero, attendance is lagging, and there’s not much hope on the horizon. Do you really want to commit upwards of $35 million to a player who a few weeks ago was pitching against BYU? That’s a lot of money you can’t spend anywhere else, including on signing international propects (ethically, of course).

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So there are my reasons. This is not a rant against Boras; he is doing what he’s supposed to be doing, which is maximizing the return for his client. The Nationals can draft Dustin Ackerly out of UNC and save some cash, and still have a player 2-3 years from contributing at the highest level.

Yes, all draft picks are a risk. But the Nationals cannot afford this risk, and they should let the Mariners have the pleasure of drafting Strasburg.

Celtics Year-in-Review

I recently posted on my Facebook page that I was proud of the Celtics this year. I was then ridiculed for that opinion, that the Celtics are only about championships and that making the final 8 is mediocrity that should not be celebrated.

Man are Boston fans starting to sound like Yankees fans. I really enjoyed this Celtics team. As much as last year? No, but once KG went down, I knew Boston’s chance at a repeat was very near zero percent. The LeBrons were just too dangerous, and Orlando was emerging. Was game 7 of the Magic series disappointing? Of course it was, but the season was an overall success in my opinion, regardless of my taunters.

So here’s my ode to the Celtic players, one-by-one.

KG. He lost a little luster with his punkish behavior on the bench and not sitting with the team in Game 1 of the Chicago series. Come on dude. I know you’re crazy competitive, but what if Scalabrine had wanted to sit in the locker room? We would have booed him. Man-up, dude.

The Truth. His tank was empty by the end of the Orlando series, but man is he fun to watch. He carried the team into the playoffs and teamed with Ray to take down the feisty Bulls.

Ray. Shooters are always hit and miss, and because he was a little gimpy in the Orlando series, J.J. Reddick was able to guard him. Ouch. Still, his 51-point game and all those game-winning/tying shots will stick in my memory for a long time.

Rondo. He has morphed into an elite point guard. He’s now my favorite Celtic to watch, and even after the Old Three retire, I’m optimistic about the future.

Perkins. He’s another reason why I’m optimistic. Is Dwight Howard really an elite player? I don’t think so, not after watching him get pushed around by Perkins. Tim Duncan in his prime eats Perkins alive. What I really want to see less of from Perkins next year is his European-style whining.

Big Baby. He parlayed a decent playoff run into a free agent contract. I’m not a Big Baby fan. He’s soft on defense and rebounding, and he thinks he can get shots off against 7-footers, and usually gets blocked. He can get hot offensively, but he’s very expendable.

Leon Powe. I hope Powe comes back. He’s a very good rebounder, and he’s really maturing on both ends of the floor. But his talents are replaceable.

Eddie House. I even named my fantasy team after him (creatively Eddie’s House). I’m split with him. He provides a good offensive spark, but man he’s a waste on the defensive end. As long as they have a decent back-up PG, I’d be fine with him being liquid nitrogen off the bench.

Tony Allen. No reason to spend much time here: He ticks me off every time he’s on the floor.
Scalabrine. I actually like his game. I think he’s a good complement to our power big guys as a shooter. He’s soft defensively and on the boards, but he can help the second unit spread the floor, and I think he works well with Rando. I just never want to see him playing crunch-time minutes every again. Ever.

Starbury. What a disaster. He showed some flourishes of his previous offensive talents, but he’s a defensive liability, and he no longer creates for others like he used to. Good luck in Europe buddy.

Mikki Moore. He’s one of the better rebounders on the team, but two major problems: He has some other defensive shortcomings, and he average more than 7 fouls per 36 minutes. Yikes. Only good in the 10-12 spot on a team, and Doc showed how little confidence he has in the guy playing him only 6.6 minutes per game in the playoffs.

Thoughts on the Finals (through Game 2)
I think Orlando’s chances of winning the NBA title bounced away with Courtney Lee’s missed alley-oop at the end of regulation of Game 2. And though Turkoglu is doing a decent job on Kobe, the defense has trouble dealing with Gasol and Kobe at the same time.

I think the Lakers wrap this up in 5 or 6. Orlando had a good run, but the Lakers dynamic duo is just too much for them to handle.