Rumors are swirling around the world wide web that the very slow start of David Ortiz might force the Red Sox to release the formerly feared slugger and go find another DH. Bill Simmons recently discussed with Jonah Kerri on a podcast that the Red Sox really need a big-bopping left-handed bat to complement the three top hitters on the Sox, Youk (R), Pedroia (R), and Martinez (S).
Now I hate to speak of Big Papi as if he's already dead, but I'm going to. Here are my thoughts on hitters (inside the organization and out) who the Sox could add if Theo & Co. decide that the ship has sailed on his career.
Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox (AA)
Going into 2009, Anderson was the wunder-hitting prospect of the Red Sox system, a 20 year-old lefty bat destined for Fenway greatness. In 163 PAs at AA Portland, he hit 316/436/526. By 2010 or 2011, he would be with the big club, Youk moving over to 3B with Lars taking over 1B.
But then 2009 happened. Anderson spent the entire season in Portland, 522 PAs, with a bad 233/328/388. His patience remained, but everything else about his hitting seemed to disappear. But remember: He was 21. So he started 2010 in Portland again, and in 67 PAs he's hitting 328/388/672. He's unlikely to maintain that power level, but I'm hopeful this is a sign of progression. I really like Anderson, and I think he's the long-term solution at 1B/DH.
Adam's reco: Not sure he's ready, but if other options don't pan out, they should give him a shot.
Adam Dunn, 1B-OF, Washington Nationals
Check out his Fangraphs page. Dunn is in an incredibly consistent hitter. You will get a low batting average, high OBP and pop. And he sucks in the field. His UZR ratings in the OF are brutal, and if you buy his 2009 UZR at 1B, he's the worst first sacker in the history of the universe.
Of course, if he's replacing Ortiz, his positional deficiencies would be eliminated, except for occasional adventure-filled starts in the field. DH is Dunn's natural position, and the Nationals should leverage that and flip him to the AL for a couple of useful prospects.
Reco: Obviously I think this is good idea. And you could still use Lowell as the DH against particularly tough southpaws.
Paul Konerko, 1B-DH, Chicago White Sox
I don't think the White Sox will be interested in flipping Konerko anytime soon, but if the White Sox fall out of contention by midseason (which they will), the prospective free agent will become trade bait. Konerko does not hit the consistently level of Dunn, but he's been pretty consistent in his career. Decent batting average, decent OBP, decent to great pop. But he is a right-handed batter, and I'm not sure he's a better hitter than Lowell.
Reco: I would pass. Lowell or Anderson would be better options.
Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
On the North side of Chicago, there's another right-handed free-agent-to-be. Lee is an enigma; in 06 and 08, he was just OK, and he excelled in 07 and 09. He's off to a slow start this season, which fits with his recent even/odd trend. He's also a decent fielder, so that gives him value someone like Dunn wouldn't have.
Would the Cubs part with him? If they fall out of contention, they might. But their payroll in 2010 is $144 million (according to Cot's Contracts), so I think they will be reluctant to unload Lee unless they are way out of contention.
Reco: The Sox should keep an eye on this one, but I wouldn't count on him being available. But if he was, he would be a major upgrade over Ortiz and Lowell.
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland
Now, I am not putting his name on to piss off Cleveland fans. As I was perusing rosters, his name intrigued me. He had a poor, injury-filled 2009. But from 05-08, this guy was was between 5-7.5 WAR a season. With the current injuries in the Boston outfield, Sizemore could fill in on a temporary basis at any OF position. And when everyone was healthy, they could rotate DH to keep everyone healthy and fresh.
Of course, Sizemore is under team control through 2012, so Cleveland would be very reluctant to move him (especially after unloading C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in the past two years).
Reco: If I was Theo I would ask, but I think the answer would be no, and the cost would be too high.
Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, Houston Astros
This continues my theme of older firstbasemen. Berkman is a switch-hitter who, like Lee, has mixed good and very good season recently. He will likely give you a .400 OBP and some pop. Like some of the other options, he is much better against RHP than LHP, so Lowell could be kept for a platoon.
His contract has a club option for 2011. The Astros always believe they are in it, so unless they are way out of it, it's likely they won't be inclined to deal the face of the franchise.
Reco: I think Berkman would be a decent fit, but I think the changes of the Astros parting ways with him are close to zero.
Price Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
After the ridiculous extension the Phillies just handed out to Ryan Howard, I think Prince Fielder is going to get a ton in arbitration in 2011. Would the Brewers think about moving him? Maybe, if they fall out of contention. He is not going to sign a discounted extension like Ryan Braun, especially if some team is going to overpay him like Philly did with Howard.
In four major league seasons, Fielder has sandwiched two very good seasons with two mediocre ones. Like Dunn, his natural position is probably DH, so a move to the AL is probably good for his long-term career prospects.
Reco: He will cost a lot if Milwaukee falls out of the race. I would ask, but quickly walk away if the price escalated above my comfort zone.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
I couldn't write a list like this without including Gonzalez. Now, we all know he's great hitter, though I think his greatness has been overblown a little bit. The Boston press corps has been selling him like the lefthanded Albert Pujols, which he is not. Still, he's very good.
Don't listen to what Padres management is saying in the press; they will trade him, it's just a matter of when.
Reco: It's obvious the Sox are flirting with a Gonzalez trade, and that would be great, but I think the price is going to be too high.
Final Recommendation
If Sox management decides to let Ortiz go, I think bringing up Lars Anderson and seeing what he's got at this point should be the first option. And if he doesn't hold up, I would pursue Gonzalez, Dunn or Berkman. And I do think, as sad as it makes me, that Big Papi's days in Boston are numbered.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
NFL Draft Recap
I covered the first round in my draft diary, so I won't rehash that here. I will focus first on the Patriots, then the BYU players, and then some general thoughts.
Patriots Draft
First Round (pick 27): Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
I covered this in my draft diary, but the pick was fine. I would have been gunning for Dez Bryant, but it was clear that the Pats didn't see it the way I did.
Second Round (pick 42): Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona
This is a good pick -- high upside, with risk. He was a very good TE in college, a first round value if healthy. He makes the passing game instantly better.
Second Round (pick 53): Jermaine Cunningham, LB, Florida
This started Bill's apparent love affair with Gators. Surprised we didn't trade up for Tebow. ESPN called this a bit of a reach, but I liked the pick and it filled a need.
Second Round (pick 62): Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
Absolutely love this pick. The combine is fool's gold, and sometimes great football players fall because of poor showings in non-football situations. This guy is smart and physical. He may never be the best LB in the league, but I would bet on 2-3 Pro Bowls in his career. I can take that.
Third Round (pick 90): Taylor Price, WR, Ohio
Speed guy, which is good, as Brady needs another deep threat.
Fourth Round (pick 114): Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida
Would rather have had Dennis Pitta out of BYU who went one pick later to Baltimore. Hernandez is a very good athlete, a very good receiver from the TE position. I don't like his attitude, and I don't think he can block in the interior in the NFL.
Fifth Round (pick 150): Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan
What a pick! This is where you go after talented special teamers, and this guy is good, and huge for a punter (6-4 240). And we now have a guy named Zoltan. Don't mess with the Pats.
Sixth Round (205): Ted Larsen, C, North Carolina State
Decent depth pick.
Seventh Round (208): Thomas Welch, T, Vanderbilt
Another depth pick, good athlete with size.
Seventh Round (247): Brandon Deaderick, DE, Alabama
Developmental pick.
Seventh Round (248): Kade Weston, DT, Georgia
Huge dude (317 lbs) to clog up the middle. Good pick.
Seventh Round (250): Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State
I like Robinson. He likely can't contribute in 2010 (and hopefully he wouldn't need to), but he could become a serviceable back-up in 2012 and beyond.
BYU Players in the Draft
With only one player taken in the draft, this wasn't a great day for the graduating Cougars, though not unexpected. Here are my thoughts on a couple of players.
Dennis Pitta, TE, selected by Baltimore in the Fourth Round
I think Pitta will have a long career in the NFL. He won't be able to outrun LBs like he did in the MWC, but he's a terrific route runner and can catch in traffic. I also think he could bulk up and become an average blocker.
Andrew George, TE, not selected or signed
At some points during their careers, I thought George might become a better pro prospect than Pitta. He was a better blocker and a decent receiver. But he improved very little in his senior season, and he's unlikely to stick anywhere in the NFL.
Max Hall, QB, signed with Arizona as undrafted free agent
Hall signed into a good situation; there is nothing settled long term about the Cardinals QB situation, and Hall, if he plays well, could become a starter long term. That being said, he's short and his consistency on long throws is questionable. There is a reason he wasn't drafted, but I think his accuracy and competitiveness make him a good bet to succeed in the NFL.
Other Draft Thoughts
Tim Tebow seems to be a great human being, and he was one of the funnest college players to watch in my lifetime, in the same group with Bo Jackson. But I don't see this ending well in Denver. QBs drafted in the first round need to succeed quickly, and I don't think he's ready to do that...Will Tebow's pre-draft struggles make other top prep QB prospects shy away from gimmicky college offenses? The BYU offense was seen as gimmicky at the time, and Steve Young and Jim McMahon did alright...So what if Aaron Hernandez tested positive for pot? I bet most of the draftees have tried pot in their lives. Unless there were other character issues, this is not a reason to drop a player on a draft board...I love how people are praising the Raiders' draft; they didn't have a crappy draft, so suddenly that's great. They're still going to suck in 2010, though Jason Campbell is an upgrade JaMarcus Russell. Of course, so am I.
Patriots Draft
First Round (pick 27): Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
I covered this in my draft diary, but the pick was fine. I would have been gunning for Dez Bryant, but it was clear that the Pats didn't see it the way I did.
Second Round (pick 42): Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona
This is a good pick -- high upside, with risk. He was a very good TE in college, a first round value if healthy. He makes the passing game instantly better.
Second Round (pick 53): Jermaine Cunningham, LB, Florida
This started Bill's apparent love affair with Gators. Surprised we didn't trade up for Tebow. ESPN called this a bit of a reach, but I liked the pick and it filled a need.
Second Round (pick 62): Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
Absolutely love this pick. The combine is fool's gold, and sometimes great football players fall because of poor showings in non-football situations. This guy is smart and physical. He may never be the best LB in the league, but I would bet on 2-3 Pro Bowls in his career. I can take that.
Third Round (pick 90): Taylor Price, WR, Ohio
Speed guy, which is good, as Brady needs another deep threat.
Fourth Round (pick 114): Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida
Would rather have had Dennis Pitta out of BYU who went one pick later to Baltimore. Hernandez is a very good athlete, a very good receiver from the TE position. I don't like his attitude, and I don't think he can block in the interior in the NFL.
Fifth Round (pick 150): Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan
What a pick! This is where you go after talented special teamers, and this guy is good, and huge for a punter (6-4 240). And we now have a guy named Zoltan. Don't mess with the Pats.
Sixth Round (205): Ted Larsen, C, North Carolina State
Decent depth pick.
Seventh Round (208): Thomas Welch, T, Vanderbilt
Another depth pick, good athlete with size.
Seventh Round (247): Brandon Deaderick, DE, Alabama
Developmental pick.
Seventh Round (248): Kade Weston, DT, Georgia
Huge dude (317 lbs) to clog up the middle. Good pick.
Seventh Round (250): Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State
I like Robinson. He likely can't contribute in 2010 (and hopefully he wouldn't need to), but he could become a serviceable back-up in 2012 and beyond.
BYU Players in the Draft
With only one player taken in the draft, this wasn't a great day for the graduating Cougars, though not unexpected. Here are my thoughts on a couple of players.
Dennis Pitta, TE, selected by Baltimore in the Fourth Round
I think Pitta will have a long career in the NFL. He won't be able to outrun LBs like he did in the MWC, but he's a terrific route runner and can catch in traffic. I also think he could bulk up and become an average blocker.
Andrew George, TE, not selected or signed
At some points during their careers, I thought George might become a better pro prospect than Pitta. He was a better blocker and a decent receiver. But he improved very little in his senior season, and he's unlikely to stick anywhere in the NFL.
Max Hall, QB, signed with Arizona as undrafted free agent
Hall signed into a good situation; there is nothing settled long term about the Cardinals QB situation, and Hall, if he plays well, could become a starter long term. That being said, he's short and his consistency on long throws is questionable. There is a reason he wasn't drafted, but I think his accuracy and competitiveness make him a good bet to succeed in the NFL.
Other Draft Thoughts
Tim Tebow seems to be a great human being, and he was one of the funnest college players to watch in my lifetime, in the same group with Bo Jackson. But I don't see this ending well in Denver. QBs drafted in the first round need to succeed quickly, and I don't think he's ready to do that...Will Tebow's pre-draft struggles make other top prep QB prospects shy away from gimmicky college offenses? The BYU offense was seen as gimmicky at the time, and Steve Young and Jim McMahon did alright...So what if Aaron Hernandez tested positive for pot? I bet most of the draftees have tried pot in their lives. Unless there were other character issues, this is not a reason to drop a player on a draft board...I love how people are praising the Raiders' draft; they didn't have a crappy draft, so suddenly that's great. They're still going to suck in 2010, though Jason Campbell is an upgrade JaMarcus Russell. Of course, so am I.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
NFL Draft Extravaganza
Tonight is an awesome night of sports television. As I mentioned in my draft recap last year, I have an unbelievable love affair with the NFL draft. Here are the major reasons:
1. I love college football, so at least in the first couple of rounds, I know and have seen many of the best players
2. I love the analysis of potential, in sports, movies, music, whatever
3. I love the process of future-looking (related to No. 2). I work in a world (consumer product marketing) where we are constantly looking into the future, trying to judge our competition, consumer tendencies, etc. And often we (and our competition) make mistakes. It fascinates me that 32 front offices are locked together trying to determine which players best fit their team. The smart teams know they're going to miss often, and are just trying to hit as often as possible. Of course, you also have the Raiders.
Tonight will be a full night, as I switch between the NFL Draft and Red Sox-Rangers games.
So without further adu, my somewhat filtered thoughts on the NFL Draft (with some other related and unrelated thoughts sprinkled in).
The Comish welcomed us to the draft. I got misty-eyed. The Rams are on the clock! I'm hanging out with the guys with ESPN.
1. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma. Mel and my boy Steve Young say this is kind of 'backed-in-a-corner' pick. You've got to feel good about that if you're a Rams fan. Luckily for Bradford, BYU is not on the Rams schedule this fall. Seriously, if he couldn't stay on the field behind a decent college OL, how is he going to survive in the NFL? Talented? Yes. But I put his changes at stardom at less than 30 percent.
2. Detroit Lions - Ndamuking Suh, DT, Nebraska. Great pick. The guy was a freakin monster in college. This guy is Richard Seymour with better upside. And the Lions need players almost everywhere.
90% of geeks like me give the Lions an A for the pick, and 85% of fans think Suh will have a better career than Bradford. Of course, we're the same group that thought Reggie Bush was a slam dunk over Mario Williams, so what do we know.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma. This draft is going way too much according to script. Of course, it's still a very good pick. I would have picked Berry here, but I have no problems with this pick. And McCoy just gave the Commish one of the best bear hugs of all time.
To all you SEC afficionados: best conference in all the land, and the top 3 picks are from the Big 12? Hmmmm....
Washington only has four draft picks? Holy cow. That team could use some youth. McNabb or no McNabb, that team could be anywhere from 4-12 and 10-6; no idea where they finish.
4. Washington - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma. Good pick; they need to protect McNabb's blindside. Again though, I still think this team has a lot of holes; don't pencil them in for the Super Bowl yet.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee. Love this pick. This guy is going to be a star next season. I think he will have a better career than anyone above him on this list, but I understand not wanting to overpay for a safety. Still, the goal is to get the best players to win the most games, and Kansas City just got better.
Only 70 percent of viewers give Kansas City an A for that pick? Morons.
Of course, the ESPN crew is now full of love for Pete Carroll. I'm not as pessimistic as Bill Simmons, but I don't like coach/GM combos, especially somone who's never really done talent evaluation at the top level.
6. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State. Good pick for the Seahawks, and Mel thinks he's better than Trent Williams. I'm not very good at evaluating offensive linemen, so I'll take his well-coiffed word for it.
After the Brady Quinn disaster, looks like the Browns will pass on Claussen. Good. I don't think rolling into town in a limo will play well in Cleveland.
7. Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden, CB, Florida. Thankfully Chris Berman is there to let us know that Haden is was an all-star point guard in high school. More importantly, he's the first draftee to turn on the tears. Well done, Joe.
That being said, I'm not a huge fan of this pick. He wasn't the best player available, and to take a CB this high, I think you need a Revis-like talent. Haden is not that talent.
Tom Jackson just pointed out that the Raiders keep drafting players that aren't very good. My question is: how will they screw this one up?
8. Oakland Raiders - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama. Totally didn't see this one coming. There is no way that I thought they'd pass on a QB from Notre Dame. I'm OK with the choice, I guess, but again, like the Browns, this is a team with a lot of holes and I think they should have taken the best player available (which I don't think they did).
9. Buffalo Bills - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson. Another surprise. I'm not a huge Spiller fan, especially not at No. 9. Isn't Claussen the right pick here? Don't they need a QB? That being said, he's fast, and a lot of people that know more about football than I (including Jon Gruden) think Spiller was a Top 5 talent in this draft.
So isn't Clausen being available a nightmare scenario for Jacksonville? If they pass on him and take Tebow later, and then Clausen becomes a star, this could be a franchise killer.
10. Jacksonville Jaquars - Tyson Alualu, DT, California. Kiper is calling this a reach, and I agree. As I look at their first-round history since 2005, this is not a team that's got a ton from their early picks. This pick may unfortunately match those others. So the Clausen nightmare scenario is still on the board.
Of course, the last time I predicted a nightmare scenario was in 2007 when Miami passed on Brady Quinn to select Ted Ginn. Ginn has been a total bust (no surprise), but Quinn has been similarly awful. Of course, Marshawn Lynch and Darelle Revis were still on the board when both teams picked.
11. San Francisco 49ers (from Denver) - Another Davis, OT, Rutgers. Wow, great pick. I think he fits perfectly for them. Steve Young says, "What a statement: Alex Smith is our quarterback." Not sure I like that statement.
12. San Diego Chargers (from Miami) - Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State. Good solid back, and Sproles should not be your top option, so it's a good fit. Not sure it was worth trading up for, but can't argue with this a whole lot.
Apparently Josh McDaniels wants to break Belichek's record for trading down in the draft, as Denver trades down again.
13. Philadelphia (from Denver, who held the pick for a few minutes) - Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan. Love this pick. As a Big Ten watcher, this guy scared the crap out of me each time Michigan played Purdue. Solidifies the Eagles D.
14. Seattle Seahawks - Earl Thomas, S, Texas. For all of my mocking of Coach Pete, I like the draft so far. Thomas should not have been available here, so this is a 'great player fell in our lap' pick. Merry Christmas, Pete.
Quick thought: Could the Niners nab Clausen at No. 17? Interesting thought. They picked the best player available at No. 11, but Clausen is sitting there, with Alex Smith still as your top QB. Can you really pass on a QB with Clausen's talent? We'll see.
15. New York Giants - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida. Smaller conference, but I like this guy. He could be a physical freak and turn into an All-Pro, or could be a bust. Risky pick, but good, which of course ticks me off, because I hate all NY teams.
16. Tenessee Titans - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgian Tech. Safe, solid pick, and the Titans need help on D.
17. San Francisco 49ers - Mike Iupati, G, Idaho. Two offensivelinmen makes me think they're going to give Gore 8,000 caries in 2010. That being said, they're definitely putting their eggs in the Alex Smith basket. Again, not a good idea.
So what about Clausen to the Steelers? What message would that send? Is Ben still the man?
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida. Little shocked by this. I would never spent a first rounder on a center, unless he projects as a guard as well. Maybe they'll move him over. Picking Clausen would be been a lot more fun.
So why is Ben getting a pass while Santonio Holmes gets traded? Ben is scummy, but he is white.
19. Atlanta Falcons - Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri.
I am also following this draft on Twitter. Lots of fun.
20. Houston Texans - Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama.
First Erin Andrews shot, talking about the obvious disappointment of Clausen. We're disappointed we haven't seen more of her and her clone talking to Colt McCoy.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermain Gresham, TE, Oklahoma. For a team that had a disppointing season, the Sooners are having a great draft. Very good player (as a pass catcher) and should help Carson Palmer.
I love being a Patriots fan, I really do, but as a fan of the Patriots and the draft, this trading down thing is annoying. I get all excited, and then they move down. I know, silly.
22. Denver Broncos (from New England) - Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech. First WR off the board, not Dez Bryant. Safer pick, but not a given that he'll be a plus WR in the NFL.
Thinking about Clausen and McCoy, I was looking back at the 2006 draft. Matt Leinert was picked ahead of Jay Cutler (by one pick). At the time I thought Leinert was head and shoulders ahead of Cutler. Yeah, not so much.
23. Green Bay Packers - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa. Awesome pick! All of the many cheese-eating, No. 12-wearing fans feel better about Aaron Rodgers' health in 2010. Then Berman insults basically the entire Midwest by saying that Iowa and Wisconsin are basically the same place. Yikes. He won't be welcome in the middle of the country again any time soon.
24. Dallas Cowboys (from New England) - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State. Why did the Pats pass on this guy? I know, character issues, because Deion Sanders is idiot. Good golly. If I'm a fan of another team in the NFC East, I would not be happy with this trade and pick at all.
25. Denver Broncos (from Baltimore) - Tim Tebow, QB, Florida. Wow, total stunner. Most smart football people don't think he has a shot as a QB (including Mr. Kiper). No. 25? Really? This pick will make or break Josh McDaniels as a coach. As much as I like Tebow, this is too high. Good luck, Josh.
So now the Broncos have Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow. What a bizarre collection of QBs. Orton, the underrated overacheiver. Quinn, the overrated underacheiver. And Tebow, one of the best college players of all time, who most experts don't think can even be a back-up QB in the NFL. Should be an interesting couple of year.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee.
Last year the Cardinal drafted Chris "Bennie" Wells in the first round with the 31st pick. He showed at the of the 2009 that he can be a feature back in the NFL. And the Pats traded down and continue using a brutal RB by committee. Just saying.
27. New England Patriots - Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers. Listen, I love special teams, and think they're are an underrated part of all levels of football. But anytime you say, "He's an outstanding special teams player" as the first thing out of the analysts' mouths, that doesn't excite me about a first rounder. I'm a little disppointed? Yes, I wanted Dez Bryant, dangit, or a LB. Hopefully McCourty can shore up the defensive backfield and, gulp, help out on special teams.
28. Miami Dolphins - Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State.
29. New York Jets - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State. Good golly, this sucks. This is not good for the Pats. Without Welker, I think the Pats are going to have trouble completing passes against this agressive Jets D. Very good pick; I really hope I'm wrong about this pick.
Gruden is suggesting Best out of California to pair with ADP on Minnesota. That is scary offensively. Really, I think the pick is Clausen or McCoy, whichever QB they think is the best. Favre's got one more season left, at the best. Of course, Berman think picking a QB here will piss off Favre. So Favre continues throwing interceptions, even when he's not on the field.
Erin Andrews sighting No. 2! How is she not in New York? My guess: she wanted a trip to California.
30. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota) - Jahvid Best, RB, California. So Gruden had the right player, wrong team. I liked Best as the best RB in this draft. Matthew Stafford has to be smiling at this one. More offensive weapons in the Motor City.
ESPN just showed highlights from the 1983 draft. Besides the unbelievable amount of hair on Chris Berman, Four Hall of Famers were picked in the first 14 (John Elway at No. 1, Eric Dickerson at No. 2, Bruce Matthews at No. 9, and Jim Kelly at No. 14). Awesome draft.
31. Indianapolis Colts - Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU. Very good pick for the Colts. I watched this guy for several years playing against BYU, he's extremely disruptive. Makes a good defense better.
How bizarre is it to have the Saints picking this late in the first round without a trade being involved? It's a new world we live in.
32. New Orleans Saints - Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
Drew Brees is totally cool. Look back at the 2001 draft; the Chargers had a terrific draft, passing on Michael Vick and trading down to pick LDT at No. 5 and Brees with the first pick in the 2nd round. He did not win over the coaching staff, but then Phillip Rivers held out in 2004, Brees established himself as 'the man.'
So what did Chargers do? They let Brees leave as a free agent, heading to New Orleans. And now Brees is probably the best QB in the NFL (apologies to Manning and Brady), Rivers is an elite QB in San Diego, and Miami passed on Brees and has struggled to find an elite QB sense.
QBs picked ahead of Brees in 2001: Only Michael Vick, at No. 1. Looks like history is repeating itself in 2010, with Bradford going No. 1, and Clausen and McCoy waiting. Maybe McCoy (another QB prospect dinged for being short like Brees) will look back nine years from now, wearing a nice suit, coming off a Super Bowl season, smiling about dropping in the draft. Maybe not.
Good night world! Another great NFL draft.
1. I love college football, so at least in the first couple of rounds, I know and have seen many of the best players
2. I love the analysis of potential, in sports, movies, music, whatever
3. I love the process of future-looking (related to No. 2). I work in a world (consumer product marketing) where we are constantly looking into the future, trying to judge our competition, consumer tendencies, etc. And often we (and our competition) make mistakes. It fascinates me that 32 front offices are locked together trying to determine which players best fit their team. The smart teams know they're going to miss often, and are just trying to hit as often as possible. Of course, you also have the Raiders.
Tonight will be a full night, as I switch between the NFL Draft and Red Sox-Rangers games.
So without further adu, my somewhat filtered thoughts on the NFL Draft (with some other related and unrelated thoughts sprinkled in).
The Comish welcomed us to the draft. I got misty-eyed. The Rams are on the clock! I'm hanging out with the guys with ESPN.
1. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma. Mel and my boy Steve Young say this is kind of 'backed-in-a-corner' pick. You've got to feel good about that if you're a Rams fan. Luckily for Bradford, BYU is not on the Rams schedule this fall. Seriously, if he couldn't stay on the field behind a decent college OL, how is he going to survive in the NFL? Talented? Yes. But I put his changes at stardom at less than 30 percent.
2. Detroit Lions - Ndamuking Suh, DT, Nebraska. Great pick. The guy was a freakin monster in college. This guy is Richard Seymour with better upside. And the Lions need players almost everywhere.
90% of geeks like me give the Lions an A for the pick, and 85% of fans think Suh will have a better career than Bradford. Of course, we're the same group that thought Reggie Bush was a slam dunk over Mario Williams, so what do we know.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma. This draft is going way too much according to script. Of course, it's still a very good pick. I would have picked Berry here, but I have no problems with this pick. And McCoy just gave the Commish one of the best bear hugs of all time.
To all you SEC afficionados: best conference in all the land, and the top 3 picks are from the Big 12? Hmmmm....
Washington only has four draft picks? Holy cow. That team could use some youth. McNabb or no McNabb, that team could be anywhere from 4-12 and 10-6; no idea where they finish.
4. Washington - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma. Good pick; they need to protect McNabb's blindside. Again though, I still think this team has a lot of holes; don't pencil them in for the Super Bowl yet.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee. Love this pick. This guy is going to be a star next season. I think he will have a better career than anyone above him on this list, but I understand not wanting to overpay for a safety. Still, the goal is to get the best players to win the most games, and Kansas City just got better.
Only 70 percent of viewers give Kansas City an A for that pick? Morons.
Of course, the ESPN crew is now full of love for Pete Carroll. I'm not as pessimistic as Bill Simmons, but I don't like coach/GM combos, especially somone who's never really done talent evaluation at the top level.
6. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State. Good pick for the Seahawks, and Mel thinks he's better than Trent Williams. I'm not very good at evaluating offensive linemen, so I'll take his well-coiffed word for it.
After the Brady Quinn disaster, looks like the Browns will pass on Claussen. Good. I don't think rolling into town in a limo will play well in Cleveland.
7. Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden, CB, Florida. Thankfully Chris Berman is there to let us know that Haden is was an all-star point guard in high school. More importantly, he's the first draftee to turn on the tears. Well done, Joe.
That being said, I'm not a huge fan of this pick. He wasn't the best player available, and to take a CB this high, I think you need a Revis-like talent. Haden is not that talent.
Tom Jackson just pointed out that the Raiders keep drafting players that aren't very good. My question is: how will they screw this one up?
8. Oakland Raiders - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama. Totally didn't see this one coming. There is no way that I thought they'd pass on a QB from Notre Dame. I'm OK with the choice, I guess, but again, like the Browns, this is a team with a lot of holes and I think they should have taken the best player available (which I don't think they did).
9. Buffalo Bills - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson. Another surprise. I'm not a huge Spiller fan, especially not at No. 9. Isn't Claussen the right pick here? Don't they need a QB? That being said, he's fast, and a lot of people that know more about football than I (including Jon Gruden) think Spiller was a Top 5 talent in this draft.
So isn't Clausen being available a nightmare scenario for Jacksonville? If they pass on him and take Tebow later, and then Clausen becomes a star, this could be a franchise killer.
10. Jacksonville Jaquars - Tyson Alualu, DT, California. Kiper is calling this a reach, and I agree. As I look at their first-round history since 2005, this is not a team that's got a ton from their early picks. This pick may unfortunately match those others. So the Clausen nightmare scenario is still on the board.
Of course, the last time I predicted a nightmare scenario was in 2007 when Miami passed on Brady Quinn to select Ted Ginn. Ginn has been a total bust (no surprise), but Quinn has been similarly awful. Of course, Marshawn Lynch and Darelle Revis were still on the board when both teams picked.
11. San Francisco 49ers (from Denver) - Another Davis, OT, Rutgers. Wow, great pick. I think he fits perfectly for them. Steve Young says, "What a statement: Alex Smith is our quarterback." Not sure I like that statement.
12. San Diego Chargers (from Miami) - Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State. Good solid back, and Sproles should not be your top option, so it's a good fit. Not sure it was worth trading up for, but can't argue with this a whole lot.
Apparently Josh McDaniels wants to break Belichek's record for trading down in the draft, as Denver trades down again.
13. Philadelphia (from Denver, who held the pick for a few minutes) - Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan. Love this pick. As a Big Ten watcher, this guy scared the crap out of me each time Michigan played Purdue. Solidifies the Eagles D.
14. Seattle Seahawks - Earl Thomas, S, Texas. For all of my mocking of Coach Pete, I like the draft so far. Thomas should not have been available here, so this is a 'great player fell in our lap' pick. Merry Christmas, Pete.
Quick thought: Could the Niners nab Clausen at No. 17? Interesting thought. They picked the best player available at No. 11, but Clausen is sitting there, with Alex Smith still as your top QB. Can you really pass on a QB with Clausen's talent? We'll see.
15. New York Giants - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida. Smaller conference, but I like this guy. He could be a physical freak and turn into an All-Pro, or could be a bust. Risky pick, but good, which of course ticks me off, because I hate all NY teams.
16. Tenessee Titans - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgian Tech. Safe, solid pick, and the Titans need help on D.
17. San Francisco 49ers - Mike Iupati, G, Idaho. Two offensivelinmen makes me think they're going to give Gore 8,000 caries in 2010. That being said, they're definitely putting their eggs in the Alex Smith basket. Again, not a good idea.
So what about Clausen to the Steelers? What message would that send? Is Ben still the man?
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida. Little shocked by this. I would never spent a first rounder on a center, unless he projects as a guard as well. Maybe they'll move him over. Picking Clausen would be been a lot more fun.
So why is Ben getting a pass while Santonio Holmes gets traded? Ben is scummy, but he is white.
19. Atlanta Falcons - Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri.
I am also following this draft on Twitter. Lots of fun.
20. Houston Texans - Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama.
First Erin Andrews shot, talking about the obvious disappointment of Clausen. We're disappointed we haven't seen more of her and her clone talking to Colt McCoy.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermain Gresham, TE, Oklahoma. For a team that had a disppointing season, the Sooners are having a great draft. Very good player (as a pass catcher) and should help Carson Palmer.
I love being a Patriots fan, I really do, but as a fan of the Patriots and the draft, this trading down thing is annoying. I get all excited, and then they move down. I know, silly.
22. Denver Broncos (from New England) - Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech. First WR off the board, not Dez Bryant. Safer pick, but not a given that he'll be a plus WR in the NFL.
Thinking about Clausen and McCoy, I was looking back at the 2006 draft. Matt Leinert was picked ahead of Jay Cutler (by one pick). At the time I thought Leinert was head and shoulders ahead of Cutler. Yeah, not so much.
23. Green Bay Packers - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa. Awesome pick! All of the many cheese-eating, No. 12-wearing fans feel better about Aaron Rodgers' health in 2010. Then Berman insults basically the entire Midwest by saying that Iowa and Wisconsin are basically the same place. Yikes. He won't be welcome in the middle of the country again any time soon.
24. Dallas Cowboys (from New England) - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State. Why did the Pats pass on this guy? I know, character issues, because Deion Sanders is idiot. Good golly. If I'm a fan of another team in the NFC East, I would not be happy with this trade and pick at all.
25. Denver Broncos (from Baltimore) - Tim Tebow, QB, Florida. Wow, total stunner. Most smart football people don't think he has a shot as a QB (including Mr. Kiper). No. 25? Really? This pick will make or break Josh McDaniels as a coach. As much as I like Tebow, this is too high. Good luck, Josh.
So now the Broncos have Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow. What a bizarre collection of QBs. Orton, the underrated overacheiver. Quinn, the overrated underacheiver. And Tebow, one of the best college players of all time, who most experts don't think can even be a back-up QB in the NFL. Should be an interesting couple of year.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee.
Last year the Cardinal drafted Chris "Bennie" Wells in the first round with the 31st pick. He showed at the of the 2009 that he can be a feature back in the NFL. And the Pats traded down and continue using a brutal RB by committee. Just saying.
27. New England Patriots - Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers. Listen, I love special teams, and think they're are an underrated part of all levels of football. But anytime you say, "He's an outstanding special teams player" as the first thing out of the analysts' mouths, that doesn't excite me about a first rounder. I'm a little disppointed? Yes, I wanted Dez Bryant, dangit, or a LB. Hopefully McCourty can shore up the defensive backfield and, gulp, help out on special teams.
28. Miami Dolphins - Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State.
29. New York Jets - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State. Good golly, this sucks. This is not good for the Pats. Without Welker, I think the Pats are going to have trouble completing passes against this agressive Jets D. Very good pick; I really hope I'm wrong about this pick.
Gruden is suggesting Best out of California to pair with ADP on Minnesota. That is scary offensively. Really, I think the pick is Clausen or McCoy, whichever QB they think is the best. Favre's got one more season left, at the best. Of course, Berman think picking a QB here will piss off Favre. So Favre continues throwing interceptions, even when he's not on the field.
Erin Andrews sighting No. 2! How is she not in New York? My guess: she wanted a trip to California.
30. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota) - Jahvid Best, RB, California. So Gruden had the right player, wrong team. I liked Best as the best RB in this draft. Matthew Stafford has to be smiling at this one. More offensive weapons in the Motor City.
ESPN just showed highlights from the 1983 draft. Besides the unbelievable amount of hair on Chris Berman, Four Hall of Famers were picked in the first 14 (John Elway at No. 1, Eric Dickerson at No. 2, Bruce Matthews at No. 9, and Jim Kelly at No. 14). Awesome draft.
31. Indianapolis Colts - Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU. Very good pick for the Colts. I watched this guy for several years playing against BYU, he's extremely disruptive. Makes a good defense better.
How bizarre is it to have the Saints picking this late in the first round without a trade being involved? It's a new world we live in.
32. New Orleans Saints - Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
Drew Brees is totally cool. Look back at the 2001 draft; the Chargers had a terrific draft, passing on Michael Vick and trading down to pick LDT at No. 5 and Brees with the first pick in the 2nd round. He did not win over the coaching staff, but then Phillip Rivers held out in 2004, Brees established himself as 'the man.'
So what did Chargers do? They let Brees leave as a free agent, heading to New Orleans. And now Brees is probably the best QB in the NFL (apologies to Manning and Brady), Rivers is an elite QB in San Diego, and Miami passed on Brees and has struggled to find an elite QB sense.
QBs picked ahead of Brees in 2001: Only Michael Vick, at No. 1. Looks like history is repeating itself in 2010, with Bradford going No. 1, and Clausen and McCoy waiting. Maybe McCoy (another QB prospect dinged for being short like Brees) will look back nine years from now, wearing a nice suit, coming off a Super Bowl season, smiling about dropping in the draft. Maybe not.
Good night world! Another great NFL draft.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
The Red Sox can compete in AL East
Last night my dad asked, "What's up with the Sox?" I've read headlines asking if the Red Sox can compete with the Rays and the Yankees. And certainly fans are anxious about the mediocre start, which includes some poor hitting, fielding and pitching.
Just a few weeks ago the Red Sox were a fashionable choice to make the playoffs, and I agreed with many other prognosticators. Very little has changed in my estimation. Let's throw some reality on this start.
AL Easy Standings (April 19, 2010)
W L GB
Tampa Bay 10 3 -
New York 9 3 .5
Toronto 8 6 2.5
Boston 4 9 6
Baltimore 2 12 8.5
Not good, right? Well let's look at last year, same time frame.
AL East Standings (April 19, 2009)
W L GB
Toronto 10 4 -
Boston 7 6 2.5
New York 7 6 2.5
Baltimore 6 7 3.5
Tampa Bay 5 8 4.5
The standings looked nothing like this at the end of the year, with New York and Boston dominating, and Toronto fading. Also, the Red Sox won 8 straight against the Yankees last season, and the media jumped on that. The season series finished even at 9-9, so making too much about this Tampa Bay sweep is not prudent.
Are there some areas of concern? Sure. I would list them in this order.
Just a few weeks ago the Red Sox were a fashionable choice to make the playoffs, and I agreed with many other prognosticators. Very little has changed in my estimation. Let's throw some reality on this start.
AL Easy Standings (April 19, 2010)
W L GB
Tampa Bay 10 3 -
New York 9 3 .5
Toronto 8 6 2.5
Boston 4 9 6
Baltimore 2 12 8.5
Not good, right? Well let's look at last year, same time frame.
AL East Standings (April 19, 2009)
W L GB
Toronto 10 4 -
Boston 7 6 2.5
New York 7 6 2.5
Baltimore 6 7 3.5
Tampa Bay 5 8 4.5
The standings looked nothing like this at the end of the year, with New York and Boston dominating, and Toronto fading. Also, the Red Sox won 8 straight against the Yankees last season, and the media jumped on that. The season series finished even at 9-9, so making too much about this Tampa Bay sweep is not prudent.
Are there some areas of concern? Sure. I would list them in this order.
- Outfield health. Mike Cameron is on the DL, Ellsbury probably should have been. It doesn't seem anyone knows when the OF will be at full strength again.
- John Lackey. In this piece on Fangraphs.com, author Jack Moore mentions that, through just his first two starts, he'd pitched differently than he has in the past and that his velocity was down. Obviously Monday's result enforced potential problems with Lackey.
- The DH spot. David Ortiz is struggling, and I've already made my case for a DH platoon with Mike Lowell. Epstein and Francona need to figure this out in the next 4-6 weeks.
- The defense. It's way too early to say whether the defensive changes have been successful or not. I've watched most of the games, and Cameron has not played well defensively, Ellsbury looks tentative going toward the wall in LF, and Tony Massarotti in the Boston Globe says Scutaro looks a little limited going to his left. Just something to watch.
As of April 19, 2010, I have no reason to believe the Red Sox will not make the playoffs. They are in a division with two other very good teams, so they may have a decent season and still miss the playoffs, but I don't see a sub-.500 team.
Monday, April 19, 2010
One Crazy Game: Mets and Cards go 20 innings
On Saturday I watched one of the craziest baseball games ever. I'm actually quite surprised and the lack of discussion about this game -- maybe it's because the NBA playoffs were starting, maybe it's because it's only April, maybe because no one watched so it's not as compelling to read about or see some highlights of a bizarre 20-inning game between the Mets and Cardinals.
It may be the most interesting baseball game I ever watched. Now it wasn't the best played, and it wasn't the best managed, but there were some spectacular plays. I started watching in the 7th inning and watched through the end missing most of the Heat-Celtics game because of it.
Before I recap my experience, let me say that I think managing a baseball team is relatively easy, and that many managers make it too hard. This isn't like coaching football or basketball. You fill out a lineup card (easy), and then make some pitching changes (harder). The degree of difficulty is increased in the NL because of the pitcher batting.
Also, I do not think Tony LaRussa is a genius. To the contrary, I think he's a below-average manager who over-thinks almost every decision, and inserts himself into the game way too much.
On with the game. You can see the complete ESPN.com play-by-play here; otherwise I'm only going to talk about the insanity. Also, for kicks, check out Joe Posnanski's similar effort on SI.com. I saw this after I wrote mine, I promise.
Seventh Inning
I pick up the scoreless game in the bottom of the seventh. Johan Santana (7IP, 4H, 9K) and Jaime Garcia (7IP, 1H, 5K, no-hitter into the 6th) pitched great games. In this inning Santana strikes out two with a runner on second to end the threat.
Eight Inning
A little drama here. Ryan Ludwick walks with two outs, and then they pitch around Albert Pujols and put him on as well. Up comes very-well compensated Matt Holliday to do what he was brought to St. Louis to do: make teams pay for pitching around Pujols. He wiffs against Met reliever Ryota Igarashi. Holliday would go 0-for-5 with 3 Ks on the day before being lifted in the 11th in a double switch. He was playing the game with the flu.
10th Inning
The Cardinals load the bases with two outs in the bottom of the inning on a Schumaker walk, a Ludwick single, and a Pujols walk. Holliday fouls out to 1B. He looked sick in the two ABs I saw, and not the good sick.
11th Inning
In what will become a running theme, New York outfielder Angel Pagan becomes baserunning goat No. 1 by getting picked off first with two outs.
12th inning
This is where it gets really crazy. With two outs and Schumaker on first, Ludwick reaches on, of all things, catcher interference. For the second time in the game, Pujols is walked (semi-intentially) to load the bases with two outs. Holliday had been removed in a double switch, so due up was reliever Jason Motte, who had faced three batters in the top of the inning. At this point, LaRussa had back-up catcher Bryan Anderson, a 23-year-old rookie, as the only position player on the bench. He let Motte hit with the base loaded, a reliever with one career AB. He struck out. Anderson was a career 299/362/420 batter in 6 minor league seasons. Great hitter? Absolutely not. But better than the 99% chance of Motte striking out.
13th inning
So Motte starts his second inning of work and gets two quick fly outs. Then Rod Barajas singles. How slow is Barajas? Jerry Manuel sends in pinch runner John Maine -- a starting pitcher. So what does LaRussa do? Motte has now thrown 25 pitches (his highest total of the young season), but was working on two days rest. After letting him hit in the 12th, he pulls him to put in lefthander Dennys Reyes. The dude was playing match-ups in a scoreless game in the 12th! The move does work though; Pagan lines out.
And then LaRussa does it again the the bottom half. With one out and two strikes and Felipe Lopez batting, rookie infielder Allen Craig is throw out stealing second after Lopez strikes out. Apparently LaRussa is gunning for the longest game ever by giving away outs. Craig had was 13-for-17 stealing bases in 4 minor league seasons.
14th inning
In the bottom of the inning, Reyes retires two more batters (15 total pitches) and is removed. To be fair, Reyes usually faces 1-2 batters per game, in true LaRusa style. To also be fair, it's the 14th inning, and LaRussa has two relievers left. So of course he brings in righty Blake Hawksworth. Hawksworth gives up a single to Luis Castillo, and walks David Wright. The Mets are knocking on the door! Unfortunately the well-compensated Jason Day grounds into a fielders choice. Apparently this is not the day for overpaid LFs.
It is important to note that neither manager has used their 'best' reliever, as both closers will appear later in the game. I don't remember announcers Kenny Albers and Tim McCarver mentioning it, but Mets' closer Francisco Rodriguez would warm up almost every inning after the ninth. So Manuel and the New York coaching staff are just as dumb as LaRussa. The both saved their best relievers so they could gun for meaningless statistics.
16th inning
In the top of the inning, Pagan leads off with a single against Hawksworth. Next up, Mike Jacobs, he of the career .313 OBP, who's know primarily as a guy with pop (32 HRs in 2008 with Florida). He is asked to bunt, of course, which would be his first successful sacrifice of his 6-year major league career, and probably his first ever. I was cursing Manuel at the moment he lays down the successful sacrifice, moving Pagan to third. Despite Jacobs' atrocious 2009 for Kansas City (228/297/401), he's still hit a HR about every 20 PAs during his career, and he hits righties OK. Defensible move? Only because it worked. In other news, Jacobs was designated for assignment the very next day. The bunt was all for nothing, as Jose Reyes grounds out, and Castillo stikes out.
In the bottom of the inning, LaRussa gets a shot of caffeine and decides to finally use his last position player to bat for Hawksworth with Ludwick on second and Pujols on first. Anderson then grounds into a DP to end the inning.
17th inning
Closer sighting! Ryan Franklin pitches an inning for the Cardinals. He only faces three batters because David Wright is throw out trying to steal second. At least Wright is a good base stealer, though Yadier Molina has a cannon.
18th inning
Infielder Felipe Lopez is on the mound for the Cards! Not sure why Franklin wasn't given a second inning. He threw 18 pitches in the 17th, but I'm not sure if he warmed up multiple times, and it was his second appearance in two days. No idea why Lopez was the choice, but he pitches a scoreless inning. It starts with Henry Blanco hitting a blooper to LF, and SS Brendan Ryan making a Willie Mays catch. Lopez almost pees his pants. I think he also may have broken 70 mph on the radar gun. The best part is the 'battle' between Lopez and Mets reliever Raul Valdes. It was an amazing contest with Valdes getting an infield single. Ryan's throw gets away from Pujols, but then Valdes is thrown out trying to get to second. Holy crap!
19th inning
Another inning, another position player pitching for St. Louis. Joe Mather pinch hit in the 10th, then played CF, then played 3B, and then moved to the mound. Lopez moved to 3B -- for his second stint on the hot corner. The good news? Mather breaks 80 on the gun. The bad news? He couldn't throw a strike. The better news? The Mets only score one run because Manuel's an idiot. After Reyes walks to start the inning, Castillo sacrifices. What? A sac bunt against a friggin' outfielder? What a joke. Then LaRussa trumps Manuel's stupidity by intentionally walking Wright. The guy can't buy a strike, but hey, let's put on some more baserunners. Of course, Mather than hits Jason Bay, which might have been bad, except the ball was moving 42 mph. Jeff Franceour (the one guy in the Mets lineup who would never walk) gets Reyes home on a SF. LaRussa then intentionally walks Blanco to get to pitcher Valdes, his second AB of the game, and he grounds out to Pujols.
But the Cards strike back in their half. On comes the infamous KRod, who had apparently been warming up for like 6 hours. According to this story, the dude had been up 10 times and thrown close to 100 warm-up pitches. Manuel was determined not to let LaRussa take the title of 'dumbest manager of the day.'
But, of course, LaRussa would not strike back. Ludwick would work a walk, and then up comes the mighty Pujols. So what does Ludwick do? He freakin' gets caught stealing! Who called for that? Even if it works, they walk Pujols at that point and Kyle Lohse (a freakin' pitcher) is on deck. Let Pujols hit you morons! He's the best hitter on the planet!
Pujols then doubles, of course, and advances to thirdon a Lohse ground out. Molina singles to tie the game, in what could have been the game winning hit.
Listen, I know I'm being rough on LaRussa/Ludwick, but come on. If they pitch to Pujols, you tie the game and there's no outs. If they walk Pujols, Lohse sacrifices and you've got two runners in scoring position with one out. LaRussa is not a genius, people. More like a jester.
20th inning
Mather is out for his second inning of torture...I mean, pitching. Again, the only run he gives up is on a SF by Reyes, scoring Pagan. My hat goes off to Lopez and Mather for keeping St. Louis in the game with 75-mph fastballs.
Starter Mike Pelfrey comes in to earn his first career save, but not without drama, as he allowed a single and a walk. Pelfrey had pitched two days before -- 106 pitches in 7 shutout innings against the Rockies to pick up a win. He threw 18 pitches to save Manuel further managing, which would only lead to humiliation.
I know that managing a 20-inning game is very difficult, and it will likely wreak havoc on these two rosters for weeks to come, especially the pitching staffs. I applaud LaRussa for putting position players on the mound instead of putting starters out there, which would have screwed up his rotation and possibly risked injury.
But overall, these two managers exposed their weaknesses in the worst way. Manuel has absolutely no idea what he's doing. His management of KRod was borderline criminal, and his love for the sacrifice and stolen base shows that he doesn't understand the value of an out, or the various skill sets of his players. Where's Earl Weaver?
LaRussa? He just tries too hard. but I'd rather have him than Manuel. Though his game management was highly questionable, and he also loves the sacrifice and the stolen base way too much, at least he did nothing to jeopardize the long-term prospects of his team.
Regardless, this game entertained me in a way that no other April baseball game ever has, and I even switched over to the Ubaldo Jiminez no-hitter (thank you MLB.TV) as well. What an awesome day of baseball.
It may be the most interesting baseball game I ever watched. Now it wasn't the best played, and it wasn't the best managed, but there were some spectacular plays. I started watching in the 7th inning and watched through the end missing most of the Heat-Celtics game because of it.
Before I recap my experience, let me say that I think managing a baseball team is relatively easy, and that many managers make it too hard. This isn't like coaching football or basketball. You fill out a lineup card (easy), and then make some pitching changes (harder). The degree of difficulty is increased in the NL because of the pitcher batting.
Also, I do not think Tony LaRussa is a genius. To the contrary, I think he's a below-average manager who over-thinks almost every decision, and inserts himself into the game way too much.
On with the game. You can see the complete ESPN.com play-by-play here; otherwise I'm only going to talk about the insanity. Also, for kicks, check out Joe Posnanski's similar effort on SI.com. I saw this after I wrote mine, I promise.
Seventh Inning
I pick up the scoreless game in the bottom of the seventh. Johan Santana (7IP, 4H, 9K) and Jaime Garcia (7IP, 1H, 5K, no-hitter into the 6th) pitched great games. In this inning Santana strikes out two with a runner on second to end the threat.
Eight Inning
A little drama here. Ryan Ludwick walks with two outs, and then they pitch around Albert Pujols and put him on as well. Up comes very-well compensated Matt Holliday to do what he was brought to St. Louis to do: make teams pay for pitching around Pujols. He wiffs against Met reliever Ryota Igarashi. Holliday would go 0-for-5 with 3 Ks on the day before being lifted in the 11th in a double switch. He was playing the game with the flu.
10th Inning
The Cardinals load the bases with two outs in the bottom of the inning on a Schumaker walk, a Ludwick single, and a Pujols walk. Holliday fouls out to 1B. He looked sick in the two ABs I saw, and not the good sick.
11th Inning
In what will become a running theme, New York outfielder Angel Pagan becomes baserunning goat No. 1 by getting picked off first with two outs.
12th inning
This is where it gets really crazy. With two outs and Schumaker on first, Ludwick reaches on, of all things, catcher interference. For the second time in the game, Pujols is walked (semi-intentially) to load the bases with two outs. Holliday had been removed in a double switch, so due up was reliever Jason Motte, who had faced three batters in the top of the inning. At this point, LaRussa had back-up catcher Bryan Anderson, a 23-year-old rookie, as the only position player on the bench. He let Motte hit with the base loaded, a reliever with one career AB. He struck out. Anderson was a career 299/362/420 batter in 6 minor league seasons. Great hitter? Absolutely not. But better than the 99% chance of Motte striking out.
13th inning
So Motte starts his second inning of work and gets two quick fly outs. Then Rod Barajas singles. How slow is Barajas? Jerry Manuel sends in pinch runner John Maine -- a starting pitcher. So what does LaRussa do? Motte has now thrown 25 pitches (his highest total of the young season), but was working on two days rest. After letting him hit in the 12th, he pulls him to put in lefthander Dennys Reyes. The dude was playing match-ups in a scoreless game in the 12th! The move does work though; Pagan lines out.
And then LaRussa does it again the the bottom half. With one out and two strikes and Felipe Lopez batting, rookie infielder Allen Craig is throw out stealing second after Lopez strikes out. Apparently LaRussa is gunning for the longest game ever by giving away outs. Craig had was 13-for-17 stealing bases in 4 minor league seasons.
14th inning
In the bottom of the inning, Reyes retires two more batters (15 total pitches) and is removed. To be fair, Reyes usually faces 1-2 batters per game, in true LaRusa style. To also be fair, it's the 14th inning, and LaRussa has two relievers left. So of course he brings in righty Blake Hawksworth. Hawksworth gives up a single to Luis Castillo, and walks David Wright. The Mets are knocking on the door! Unfortunately the well-compensated Jason Day grounds into a fielders choice. Apparently this is not the day for overpaid LFs.
It is important to note that neither manager has used their 'best' reliever, as both closers will appear later in the game. I don't remember announcers Kenny Albers and Tim McCarver mentioning it, but Mets' closer Francisco Rodriguez would warm up almost every inning after the ninth. So Manuel and the New York coaching staff are just as dumb as LaRussa. The both saved their best relievers so they could gun for meaningless statistics.
16th inning
In the top of the inning, Pagan leads off with a single against Hawksworth. Next up, Mike Jacobs, he of the career .313 OBP, who's know primarily as a guy with pop (32 HRs in 2008 with Florida). He is asked to bunt, of course, which would be his first successful sacrifice of his 6-year major league career, and probably his first ever. I was cursing Manuel at the moment he lays down the successful sacrifice, moving Pagan to third. Despite Jacobs' atrocious 2009 for Kansas City (228/297/401), he's still hit a HR about every 20 PAs during his career, and he hits righties OK. Defensible move? Only because it worked. In other news, Jacobs was designated for assignment the very next day. The bunt was all for nothing, as Jose Reyes grounds out, and Castillo stikes out.
In the bottom of the inning, LaRussa gets a shot of caffeine and decides to finally use his last position player to bat for Hawksworth with Ludwick on second and Pujols on first. Anderson then grounds into a DP to end the inning.
17th inning
Closer sighting! Ryan Franklin pitches an inning for the Cardinals. He only faces three batters because David Wright is throw out trying to steal second. At least Wright is a good base stealer, though Yadier Molina has a cannon.
18th inning
Infielder Felipe Lopez is on the mound for the Cards! Not sure why Franklin wasn't given a second inning. He threw 18 pitches in the 17th, but I'm not sure if he warmed up multiple times, and it was his second appearance in two days. No idea why Lopez was the choice, but he pitches a scoreless inning. It starts with Henry Blanco hitting a blooper to LF, and SS Brendan Ryan making a Willie Mays catch. Lopez almost pees his pants. I think he also may have broken 70 mph on the radar gun. The best part is the 'battle' between Lopez and Mets reliever Raul Valdes. It was an amazing contest with Valdes getting an infield single. Ryan's throw gets away from Pujols, but then Valdes is thrown out trying to get to second. Holy crap!
19th inning
Another inning, another position player pitching for St. Louis. Joe Mather pinch hit in the 10th, then played CF, then played 3B, and then moved to the mound. Lopez moved to 3B -- for his second stint on the hot corner. The good news? Mather breaks 80 on the gun. The bad news? He couldn't throw a strike. The better news? The Mets only score one run because Manuel's an idiot. After Reyes walks to start the inning, Castillo sacrifices. What? A sac bunt against a friggin' outfielder? What a joke. Then LaRussa trumps Manuel's stupidity by intentionally walking Wright. The guy can't buy a strike, but hey, let's put on some more baserunners. Of course, Mather than hits Jason Bay, which might have been bad, except the ball was moving 42 mph. Jeff Franceour (the one guy in the Mets lineup who would never walk) gets Reyes home on a SF. LaRussa then intentionally walks Blanco to get to pitcher Valdes, his second AB of the game, and he grounds out to Pujols.
But the Cards strike back in their half. On comes the infamous KRod, who had apparently been warming up for like 6 hours. According to this story, the dude had been up 10 times and thrown close to 100 warm-up pitches. Manuel was determined not to let LaRussa take the title of 'dumbest manager of the day.'
But, of course, LaRussa would not strike back. Ludwick would work a walk, and then up comes the mighty Pujols. So what does Ludwick do? He freakin' gets caught stealing! Who called for that? Even if it works, they walk Pujols at that point and Kyle Lohse (a freakin' pitcher) is on deck. Let Pujols hit you morons! He's the best hitter on the planet!
Pujols then doubles, of course, and advances to thirdon a Lohse ground out. Molina singles to tie the game, in what could have been the game winning hit.
Listen, I know I'm being rough on LaRussa/Ludwick, but come on. If they pitch to Pujols, you tie the game and there's no outs. If they walk Pujols, Lohse sacrifices and you've got two runners in scoring position with one out. LaRussa is not a genius, people. More like a jester.
20th inning
Mather is out for his second inning of torture...I mean, pitching. Again, the only run he gives up is on a SF by Reyes, scoring Pagan. My hat goes off to Lopez and Mather for keeping St. Louis in the game with 75-mph fastballs.
Starter Mike Pelfrey comes in to earn his first career save, but not without drama, as he allowed a single and a walk. Pelfrey had pitched two days before -- 106 pitches in 7 shutout innings against the Rockies to pick up a win. He threw 18 pitches to save Manuel further managing, which would only lead to humiliation.
I know that managing a 20-inning game is very difficult, and it will likely wreak havoc on these two rosters for weeks to come, especially the pitching staffs. I applaud LaRussa for putting position players on the mound instead of putting starters out there, which would have screwed up his rotation and possibly risked injury.
But overall, these two managers exposed their weaknesses in the worst way. Manuel has absolutely no idea what he's doing. His management of KRod was borderline criminal, and his love for the sacrifice and stolen base shows that he doesn't understand the value of an out, or the various skill sets of his players. Where's Earl Weaver?
LaRussa? He just tries too hard. but I'd rather have him than Manuel. Though his game management was highly questionable, and he also loves the sacrifice and the stolen base way too much, at least he did nothing to jeopardize the long-term prospects of his team.
Regardless, this game entertained me in a way that no other April baseball game ever has, and I even switched over to the Ubaldo Jiminez no-hitter (thank you MLB.TV) as well. What an awesome day of baseball.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Lowell should DH against LHPs
No before you think this is another 'Ortiz is starting slow, bench the bum!' columns, it is not. I think Big Papi will be fine. Against righthanders. But the says he's not a good play against lefties any more.
From 07-09, Papi's line against lefties is 253/338/439. That's not good, and it was much worse than that last season (212/298/414). Now, Ortiz has had bad years against lefties before, and good ones. In most of his elite years, he hit lefties at a high level. But he has not been an elite player in several years. And while hitting him against a pitcher like Andy Pettite (who he's hit well in the past) is one thing, starting him against more traditional lefties is silly, especially with a very good option on the bench.
Over that same time period, Mike Lowell has hit 314/381/500 against southpaws. Why is this even a discussion?
Now, part of this may be not hurting Ortiz's ego and getting him reps against LHPs because the plan is to trade Lowell in the next couple of weeks. At this point, unless he brings something of value, I think keeping Lowell is the best option, playing him 2-3 times a week at 1B, 3B and DH.
So Lowell is an easy option at DH, especially since Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis both bar righthanded. So please, Terry, Theo, make the right choice and get Lowell some more ABs.
From 07-09, Papi's line against lefties is 253/338/439. That's not good, and it was much worse than that last season (212/298/414). Now, Ortiz has had bad years against lefties before, and good ones. In most of his elite years, he hit lefties at a high level. But he has not been an elite player in several years. And while hitting him against a pitcher like Andy Pettite (who he's hit well in the past) is one thing, starting him against more traditional lefties is silly, especially with a very good option on the bench.
Over that same time period, Mike Lowell has hit 314/381/500 against southpaws. Why is this even a discussion?
Now, part of this may be not hurting Ortiz's ego and getting him reps against LHPs because the plan is to trade Lowell in the next couple of weeks. At this point, unless he brings something of value, I think keeping Lowell is the best option, playing him 2-3 times a week at 1B, 3B and DH.
So Lowell is an easy option at DH, especially since Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis both bar righthanded. So please, Terry, Theo, make the right choice and get Lowell some more ABs.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
On DVD: T2
I recently watched Terminator 2: Judgement Day on my iPod while on vacation. I hadn't seen the movie in 15+ years, and didn't even remember some of the best (and worst) parts of the movie.
What worked
Lots of things; this is a sci-fi/action classic, and true to James Cameron's MO, contains a strong, compelling female character, Sarah Connor (played very well by Linda Hamilton). Arnold is great, Robert Patrick is menacing as the T-1000, and some other good supporting performances round it out.
The effects look a little cheesy now, but were revolutionary at the time. The action sequences are tremendous, and it's a credit to Cameron that, despite it being a sequel, he kept the core cast small: Sarah, her son John, the orginial Terminator, the T-1000, and a bunch of fodder.
Back to Linda Hamilton: She is awesome in this movie. Her character's range of emotions moves from borderline insanity and paranoia, to love, to terror, to unbelievable determination. I had forgotten how her performance moves this movie from good to great.
What Didn't Work
I really tried to like Edward Furlong as John Connor, but he's so freakin' whiny that I just couldn't. He has a few good moments, but most of the time he annoys.
And I'm nitpicking a little, but Cameron lays on the cheese pretty heavy at the beginning, including a 'Bad to the Bone' montage at when Arnold gets clothes and a bike from a bar.
Who Would Like It
Anyone who liked it before, and anyone who enjoys great sci-fi/action.
Who Wouldn't Like It
Well, if you disliked it in 1991, I don't think that will have changed. It is also very violent (hence the R rating).
Closing Credits
This movie made me miss the short-live and underrated TV show Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. I really liked that show, and I enjoy stories from the Terminator universe (even if I was disappointed by Terminator: Salvation). This is a great movie that hasn't aged particularly well, but if you haven't seen it in a while, it's worth another look.
What worked
Lots of things; this is a sci-fi/action classic, and true to James Cameron's MO, contains a strong, compelling female character, Sarah Connor (played very well by Linda Hamilton). Arnold is great, Robert Patrick is menacing as the T-1000, and some other good supporting performances round it out.
The effects look a little cheesy now, but were revolutionary at the time. The action sequences are tremendous, and it's a credit to Cameron that, despite it being a sequel, he kept the core cast small: Sarah, her son John, the orginial Terminator, the T-1000, and a bunch of fodder.
Back to Linda Hamilton: She is awesome in this movie. Her character's range of emotions moves from borderline insanity and paranoia, to love, to terror, to unbelievable determination. I had forgotten how her performance moves this movie from good to great.
What Didn't Work
I really tried to like Edward Furlong as John Connor, but he's so freakin' whiny that I just couldn't. He has a few good moments, but most of the time he annoys.
And I'm nitpicking a little, but Cameron lays on the cheese pretty heavy at the beginning, including a 'Bad to the Bone' montage at when Arnold gets clothes and a bike from a bar.
Who Would Like It
Anyone who liked it before, and anyone who enjoys great sci-fi/action.
Who Wouldn't Like It
Well, if you disliked it in 1991, I don't think that will have changed. It is also very violent (hence the R rating).
Closing Credits
This movie made me miss the short-live and underrated TV show Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. I really liked that show, and I enjoy stories from the Terminator universe (even if I was disappointed by Terminator: Salvation). This is a great movie that hasn't aged particularly well, but if you haven't seen it in a while, it's worth another look.
Monday, April 5, 2010
MLB Preview: National League
NL East
1. Philadelphia (93 wins)
This team is the class of the NL. I like the lineup 1-8, the starting pitching could be fantastic, and the bullpen should be solid (even if Brad Lidge misses significant time). Howard and Utley are a murderer's row by themselves, and Roy Halladay is going to love pitching on a team that's relevant.
2. Atlanta (86)
If there's one team that could seize the NL East if the Phillies slip, it's Atlanta. I like Heyward and McClouth in the OF, Glaus should stay healthier at 1B (just two years ago he was worth more than 5 wins to the Cardinals, says Fangraphs.com), and McCann and Chipper will produce. And I like the rotation. Tommy Hansen is a perennial Cy Young candidate in the making, and they have depth.
3. Florida (85)
There's a lot to like about the Fish, but the pitching is too shallow, and I think I might be overrating them slightly. Of course, any team with Hanley Ramirez as its anchor should be OK, and if the top pitchers stay healthy, they could contend.
4. New York (77)
Last year I predicted big things for the Mets; not this year. After Johan Santana, their starting pitching is scary, as in, New York fans are going to cringe a lot. The lineup also has holes (even with the addition of JBay). This is going to be a long season, though David Wright will bounce back and have a great year.
5. Washington (66)
In five seasons of existence since moving from Montreal/San Juan, the Nationals have never finished better than 4th in the NL East. Their best season was their first, with 81 wins. Jim Bowden ran this team so poorly, spending money on players who will never be on a good Nationals team. But there is some hope. Everybody and their mother thinks Stephen Strasburg is the real deal, and Ryan Zimmerman blossomed into a superstar in 2009. Still, this is a bad team, with holes all over the place. But they should win more than 59 games (their win total two years running).
NL Central
1. St. Louis (92)
There is only one really good team in this division, and the Cardinals will cruise to another division crown (their 8th in 11 years). The pitching should be good, and Pujols anchors a decent lineup. Welcome to the playoffs again, boys.
2. Chicago (84)
Alfonso Soriano is a disaster. He has had some good seasons, where he was worth 4-5 wins. Last year he was so bad, you would have been better grabbing a random minor leaguer to replace him. (Check out his Fangraphs page.) Geovany Soto fell flat after an awesome 2008. Neither of those two are as bad as they were last year. The Cubs will rebound, but won’t be able to catch their rivals.
3. Cincinnati (80)
Semi-bold prediction: The Reds win the Central in 2011. The young lineup will rake this year, led by Votto and Bruce. The starting rotation will be decent, especially after Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman joins the rotation. They are not deep enough or good enough to contend for the playoffs in 2010, but that won’t be true in 2011.
4. Milwaukee (77)
I like the lineup. Of course, Fielder and Braun are total studs, but Weeks will stay healthy and Corey Hart won't suck as bad, so they will score a lot of runs. And much ballyhooed SS prospect Alcides Escobar will add speed and excitement to the middle infield. But the pitching, after Gallardo, is not good enough.
5. Houston (68)
Looking at the Astros active roster, the only players I would really want are Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. Kaz Matsui? Really? This is a bad team, and I don’t believe management realizes how bad.
6. Pittsburgh (65)
The Pirates last made the postseason at the beginning of my junior year of high school, 1992, with an outfield of Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke and Alex Cole. And though they have a couple of young position players that are intriguing (including Jeff Clement at 1B), they will finish 6th in the Central for the 4th year in a row.
NL West
1. Colorado (90)
The Rockies lineup is going to be really good, the right mixture of hitting and defense. Tulowitski is a stud, and Dexter Fowler is a All-Star in the making in center. The pitching is also good, and the rest of the West is mediocre.
2. Los Angeles (88)
Unfortunately a divorce may have killed this team. This is a team with a great OF, and a window to compete. But yet the Blake Dewitt-Ronnie Belliard combo will patrol 2B, Casey Blake starts at 3B, and Vincente Padilla is the opening day starter. Could they make the playoffs? Absolutely, but a few shrewd offseason moves might have made them a runaway favorite like the Cardinals.
3. Giants (82)
The pitching will be awesome. Lincecum is a freaky stud, and Cain and Zito are a good 2-3. The offense? Brutal. Besides Kung Fu Panda, there’s not a plus player on the field (and he’s a bad fielder). Again, a few shrewd offseason moves could have made them a contender.
4. Arizona (80)
The D-Backs are a cute darkhorse pick, but I don’t see it. Are they young? Absolutely. Could some of their young underperformers (I’m looking at you, Stephen Drew) break out? Totally. But too many things would have to go right, and the pitching will be bad if Webb can’t get back on the mound.
5. Padres (65)
Take a look at the Padres depth chart. Really. Take a look. This is a really bad team. A slim Matt Stairs is even coming off the bench. And yes, that’s really Jon Garland as the No. 1 starter. It will be a long season in San Diego, but at least the weather will be nice.
NLDS
Colorado over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
NLCS
Colorado over Philadelphia
World Series
Seattle over Colorado
1. Philadelphia (93 wins)
This team is the class of the NL. I like the lineup 1-8, the starting pitching could be fantastic, and the bullpen should be solid (even if Brad Lidge misses significant time). Howard and Utley are a murderer's row by themselves, and Roy Halladay is going to love pitching on a team that's relevant.
2. Atlanta (86)
If there's one team that could seize the NL East if the Phillies slip, it's Atlanta. I like Heyward and McClouth in the OF, Glaus should stay healthier at 1B (just two years ago he was worth more than 5 wins to the Cardinals, says Fangraphs.com), and McCann and Chipper will produce. And I like the rotation. Tommy Hansen is a perennial Cy Young candidate in the making, and they have depth.
3. Florida (85)
There's a lot to like about the Fish, but the pitching is too shallow, and I think I might be overrating them slightly. Of course, any team with Hanley Ramirez as its anchor should be OK, and if the top pitchers stay healthy, they could contend.
4. New York (77)
Last year I predicted big things for the Mets; not this year. After Johan Santana, their starting pitching is scary, as in, New York fans are going to cringe a lot. The lineup also has holes (even with the addition of JBay). This is going to be a long season, though David Wright will bounce back and have a great year.
5. Washington (66)
In five seasons of existence since moving from Montreal/San Juan, the Nationals have never finished better than 4th in the NL East. Their best season was their first, with 81 wins. Jim Bowden ran this team so poorly, spending money on players who will never be on a good Nationals team. But there is some hope. Everybody and their mother thinks Stephen Strasburg is the real deal, and Ryan Zimmerman blossomed into a superstar in 2009. Still, this is a bad team, with holes all over the place. But they should win more than 59 games (their win total two years running).
NL Central
1. St. Louis (92)
There is only one really good team in this division, and the Cardinals will cruise to another division crown (their 8th in 11 years). The pitching should be good, and Pujols anchors a decent lineup. Welcome to the playoffs again, boys.
2. Chicago (84)
Alfonso Soriano is a disaster. He has had some good seasons, where he was worth 4-5 wins. Last year he was so bad, you would have been better grabbing a random minor leaguer to replace him. (Check out his Fangraphs page.) Geovany Soto fell flat after an awesome 2008. Neither of those two are as bad as they were last year. The Cubs will rebound, but won’t be able to catch their rivals.
3. Cincinnati (80)
Semi-bold prediction: The Reds win the Central in 2011. The young lineup will rake this year, led by Votto and Bruce. The starting rotation will be decent, especially after Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman joins the rotation. They are not deep enough or good enough to contend for the playoffs in 2010, but that won’t be true in 2011.
4. Milwaukee (77)
I like the lineup. Of course, Fielder and Braun are total studs, but Weeks will stay healthy and Corey Hart won't suck as bad, so they will score a lot of runs. And much ballyhooed SS prospect Alcides Escobar will add speed and excitement to the middle infield. But the pitching, after Gallardo, is not good enough.
5. Houston (68)
Looking at the Astros active roster, the only players I would really want are Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. Kaz Matsui? Really? This is a bad team, and I don’t believe management realizes how bad.
6. Pittsburgh (65)
The Pirates last made the postseason at the beginning of my junior year of high school, 1992, with an outfield of Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke and Alex Cole. And though they have a couple of young position players that are intriguing (including Jeff Clement at 1B), they will finish 6th in the Central for the 4th year in a row.
NL West
1. Colorado (90)
The Rockies lineup is going to be really good, the right mixture of hitting and defense. Tulowitski is a stud, and Dexter Fowler is a All-Star in the making in center. The pitching is also good, and the rest of the West is mediocre.
2. Los Angeles (88)
Unfortunately a divorce may have killed this team. This is a team with a great OF, and a window to compete. But yet the Blake Dewitt-Ronnie Belliard combo will patrol 2B, Casey Blake starts at 3B, and Vincente Padilla is the opening day starter. Could they make the playoffs? Absolutely, but a few shrewd offseason moves might have made them a runaway favorite like the Cardinals.
3. Giants (82)
The pitching will be awesome. Lincecum is a freaky stud, and Cain and Zito are a good 2-3. The offense? Brutal. Besides Kung Fu Panda, there’s not a plus player on the field (and he’s a bad fielder). Again, a few shrewd offseason moves could have made them a contender.
4. Arizona (80)
The D-Backs are a cute darkhorse pick, but I don’t see it. Are they young? Absolutely. Could some of their young underperformers (I’m looking at you, Stephen Drew) break out? Totally. But too many things would have to go right, and the pitching will be bad if Webb can’t get back on the mound.
5. Padres (65)
Take a look at the Padres depth chart. Really. Take a look. This is a really bad team. A slim Matt Stairs is even coming off the bench. And yes, that’s really Jon Garland as the No. 1 starter. It will be a long season in San Diego, but at least the weather will be nice.
NLDS
Colorado over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
NLCS
Colorado over Philadelphia
World Series
Seattle over Colorado
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