- These aren't your older brother's Nationals. Since Bowden left as GM, the Nats have opened the wallets, and even before that made a run at Teixira and signed Adam Dunn. So a $15-30 million expenditure on a draft pick would not financially cripple the franchise.
- Last year the Nats failed to sign their first round pick and suffered a huge PR hit because of it. It's unlikely they would draft Strasburg unless they really believed they could sign him.
- The talent drop-off between Strasburg and the next available choices was pretty deep, according to most talent evaluators.
I don't think drafting Strasburg is an awful decision, and I think it could be a great one if both of the following two things happen:
- Strasburg signs for less than $20 million. Yes, it would still be a record for a draft pick, but Peter Gammons said on Wednesday Night Baseball he thought it would be $25 million. That's too much for a player who's never thrown a pitch outside of college.
- Strasburg must get to the majors in 2010 and produce. You can't be spending that much money on someone for seasoning. Give him a couple months in the minors, and then bring him up to the show (even if it's as a set-up man in the bullpen for the second half of the year).
I do think Strasburg is likely to become a very good pitcher, and I would love this to work out for everyone. But I have a feeling that we'll look back 5 years from now and wonder why the heck the Nationals spent $20 million on a college pitcher.
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