Panic Nation

You would have thought it was 2003 or something. Red Sox Nation seems to be in full panic mode, especially if you watched the Tigers game last night. The Fenway Park crowd was almost silent in the 8th and 9th innings, a marked departure from close games earlier in the season. The 6-game losing skid left the fans shell-shocked.

But is there cause for such despair? Maybe if this was 2003, and the 'curse of Dan Shaughnessy' was still in full bloom. But this current regime (Francona and Epstein) have won two world series and only missed the playoffs once. This has been, by many measures, the most successful franchise of the decade. The 'wo-is-me' attitude is beginning to annoy me. We don't have to act like insufferable Yankee fans, but can't we at least have a little swagger and not go into panic mode with each losing streak.

But to be fare, things have changed in the last week. The losing streak changed Boston's chances at the postseason, no matter how you slice it. If you look at the playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, you'll see the Sox playoff chances have dropped 22 points since last week. They still have about a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs. But the Yankees now look like a lock to make the playoffs, and the Rangers and Rays are looking to take Boston's wildcard spot.

A week ago everyone was worried about the starting rotation. Now everyone's worried about an anemic lineup. But I'm not worried so much about the offense. With the addition of Victor Martinez, and better performance from Bay and JD (which I expect), scoring runs won't be the issue. My big question is who will provide solid innings after Beckett and Lester. The enigmatic Penny? The baffling Dice-K? The old knuckleballer? Paul Byrd? This is not painting a pretty picture.

Potentially more disastrous is the defense. Again referencing Baseball Prospectus, the Sox are second-to-last in baseball in defense. Last year the Sox were 5th. From my observation, the team is suffering defensively at SS, LF, RF (when Drew isn't in the lineup), 3B (when the limited Lowell is in the lineup) and catcher (when it comes to the running game). To me, this is the biggest problem. Kotchman was a nice pickup for this reason; Youk can play third and Kotchman (a very good gloveman) can play 1B when defense is needed.

The Rios Contract
I'm a little stunned the White Sox took on Alex Rios' contract. You can get the takes of Rob Neyer and Keith Law through these links. Yes, by adding Rios and Peavy they get two potential All-Stars without giving up a ton, and they're likely better options than anything that will hit the 2010 free agent market. But there's still almost $70 million on Rios' contract, and Peavy may not be the same pitcher outside of Petco and after his injury. Ken Williams never rests (which is good), but Rios' bat has declined every year since 2006, and though he's a plus defender (and will be moved back to CF by all accounts), I'm not sure the White Sox won't be regretting this decision in 2011.