My original playoff predictions were way off. So much for the Sox-Rox World Series. But I did a much better job in the LCS round, even picking the right number of games per series. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the bullpens are the key. Both teams have potent bats, both teams have some good starters. Both are decent defensive teams, according to Baseball Prosepectus' team defensive efficiency rating.
So the difference is the bullpen. I give the Yanks the edge their because of Mariano Rivera, but I don't trust Joba. I think Hughes will be OK.
The Phillies bullpen is an enigma. Brad Lidge has pitched well in the postseason, but he was awful all season long. So do you trust a streaky closer who has had dominant stretches in the past and has pitched well over the last 1 week+, or do you look at the season?
I think Lidge will implode against the tough Yankees lineup. There really isn't an easy out in the group, and if Teixiera starts hitting, there isn't a better 1-2-3-4 combo in baseball than Jeter-Damon-Tex-ARod. If Lidge has to pitch to that group, watch out. We could see some massive moonshots.
I don't trust the Phillies bullpen, even if the Yanks have some question marks. Yanks in 6.
But really it doesn't matter to me. As my brother recently said on Facebook that you're picking between two evil forces. I agree. I have never routed for a Philadelpia team, and I certainly would only root for the Yankees if they were playing Minions of Satan. So I'm not particularly thrilled with this matchup.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
Winning more important than being macho
The Baltimore Ravens started out 3-0. They had good wins over the Chiefs, Chargers and Browns. Many commentators were wondering if the emergence of Joe Flacco combined with a potent defense could make them a big-time contender in the AFC.
Then the Patriots game happened. The Ravens fell 27-21, with a couple of roughing the passer calls and a dropped Derrik Mason pass sunk formerly undefeated Baltimore.
And then the idiot Ravens arrived. Ray Lewis and other Ravens opened their mouths and called out the refs, the NFL rules, and Tom Brady. They took no blame themselves.
The next week they lost to the Bengals 17-14, and a big reason was a late hit by Lewis on Chad Ochocinco, which extended a game-winning Cincinnati drive. He led with his helmet and popped Chad late in the helmet. A completely stupid move that was a big reason why they lost.
That game was followed by a heart-breaking 33-31 loss to Favre and the Vikings.
The season is hardly lost as they come out of a week 7 bye. They play the Broncos this week, and a victory would put them at 4-3 and in decent shape to make the playoffs. But the road would have been much easier if they went into the buy at 4-2 or 5-1.
I think they got what they deserved for whining after the Patriots game. Should they have been upset? Yes, most defensive players think the QB rules are lame. But their comments sounded like a bunch of fans on talk radio, not players who should be more interested in winning than looking like tough guys. And they went on all week about how they would hit even harder in the next game.
And then Lewis kills his team by being a 'tough guy' and laying out Ochocinco in stupid fashion. Last time I checked, the goal of the NFL is to win games, not impress your friends with your machismo. Lewis got exactly what he deserved -- a loss for a very stupid decision at a key point in the game.
Will the Ravens make the playoffs? I don't think so. They have a tough schedule, and the defense isn't as good as it has been. They could get hot, and Flacco is very good. But they will be hard pressed to overcome the their own need to be macho instead of winners.
Then the Patriots game happened. The Ravens fell 27-21, with a couple of roughing the passer calls and a dropped Derrik Mason pass sunk formerly undefeated Baltimore.
And then the idiot Ravens arrived. Ray Lewis and other Ravens opened their mouths and called out the refs, the NFL rules, and Tom Brady. They took no blame themselves.
The next week they lost to the Bengals 17-14, and a big reason was a late hit by Lewis on Chad Ochocinco, which extended a game-winning Cincinnati drive. He led with his helmet and popped Chad late in the helmet. A completely stupid move that was a big reason why they lost.
That game was followed by a heart-breaking 33-31 loss to Favre and the Vikings.
The season is hardly lost as they come out of a week 7 bye. They play the Broncos this week, and a victory would put them at 4-3 and in decent shape to make the playoffs. But the road would have been much easier if they went into the buy at 4-2 or 5-1.
I think they got what they deserved for whining after the Patriots game. Should they have been upset? Yes, most defensive players think the QB rules are lame. But their comments sounded like a bunch of fans on talk radio, not players who should be more interested in winning than looking like tough guys. And they went on all week about how they would hit even harder in the next game.
And then Lewis kills his team by being a 'tough guy' and laying out Ochocinco in stupid fashion. Last time I checked, the goal of the NFL is to win games, not impress your friends with your machismo. Lewis got exactly what he deserved -- a loss for a very stupid decision at a key point in the game.
Will the Ravens make the playoffs? I don't think so. They have a tough schedule, and the defense isn't as good as it has been. They could get hot, and Flacco is very good. But they will be hard pressed to overcome the their own need to be macho instead of winners.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
MLB Playoffs: LCS Thoughts
OK, I suck at predicting the MLB postseason. My World Series match-up of the Rox and Sox flopped in a total of seven playoff games. So much for that.
So I'll take another shot at this.
Angels v. Yankees
The Yanks look scary good, as much as I don't want to admit it. I don't trust their starters after CC, but the lineup is awesome and it will be difficult to to score on the NY bullpen after the 7th inning with Joba, Hughes and Mariano.
But the Angels are on a roll, and that lineup can score runs in any way. I still think you can pitch to Vlad and Torii Hunter, but Kendry Morales is good, and the lineup is scary when Napoli catches.
Prediction: Yanks in 6
Phillies v. Dodgers
I don't trust the Dodgers. Can't really put my finger on it, but I don't think see them beating the Phillies. I wouldn't pitch to Manny with Loney behind him, and I think the lineup can be put in check by good pitching.
For Philadelphia, Cliff Lee looks awesome, and I think the other starters will be good enough. The Achilles heel is the bullpen. I wouldn't let any one of those guys pitch to Manny no matter what. Lidge actually shouldn't even be pitching batting practice to Joe Torre.
Prediction: Phillies in 5
World Series Prediction: Yanks in 7
And if you think I'm trying a reverse jinks, I'm certainly not above such behavior. Yankees sucks!
So I'll take another shot at this.
Angels v. Yankees
The Yanks look scary good, as much as I don't want to admit it. I don't trust their starters after CC, but the lineup is awesome and it will be difficult to to score on the NY bullpen after the 7th inning with Joba, Hughes and Mariano.
But the Angels are on a roll, and that lineup can score runs in any way. I still think you can pitch to Vlad and Torii Hunter, but Kendry Morales is good, and the lineup is scary when Napoli catches.
Prediction: Yanks in 6
Phillies v. Dodgers
I don't trust the Dodgers. Can't really put my finger on it, but I don't think see them beating the Phillies. I wouldn't pitch to Manny with Loney behind him, and I think the lineup can be put in check by good pitching.
For Philadelphia, Cliff Lee looks awesome, and I think the other starters will be good enough. The Achilles heel is the bullpen. I wouldn't let any one of those guys pitch to Manny no matter what. Lidge actually shouldn't even be pitching batting practice to Joe Torre.
Prediction: Phillies in 5
World Series Prediction: Yanks in 7
And if you think I'm trying a reverse jinks, I'm certainly not above such behavior. Yankees sucks!
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
MLB Playoff Preview
If you didn’t watch or see the highlights of the awesome Twins-Tigers play-in game (or as I like to call it ‘The Game For the Opportunity to Get Swept by the Yankees’), then you’re an idiot. (Sorry, poor Office reference.) Seriously though, that game encapsulated why I love playoff baseball: the drama, the unpredictability, the crazy fans. Only two post-season events are better: playoff NHL hockey, and the WNBA playoffs.
So without further ado, my MLB playoff preview in the form of the player on each team that will make or break that team.
Yankees – CC Sabathia
As goes the big guy, so go the Yanks. Truth be told, CC was very good this year, though not quite the stud he was in 2008 or 2007. But the biggest question mark for him is his postseason record: 5 starts, 2-3 record, an ERA of 7.92, and walking nearly 8 batters per nine innings.
What’s up with that? Is it a sample size issue? Is he a choker? I don’t believe the last could be true – the guy carried the Brewers into the playoffs on his large back last season. I just think he’s been overworked the past two seasons, and this year he threw 230 innings, which is the fewest he’s thrown since 2006. I think he pitches well for the Yanks.
Angels – Scott Kazmir
Kazmir was a shell of himself this year, though he has a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts after being traded by the Rays. I think that trade crazy – why give up on a 25-year old lefty he strikes out a batter per inning?
I think if Kazmir shuts down the Sox, the Angels have a chance to overcome the ‘curse of the rally monkey.’ If not, I think the Sox cruise to another playoff victory
Twins – Jason Kubel
No one is going to pitch to Joe Mauer (if they’re smart). The only pitcher on the NY staff that should mess with Mauer is Mariano Rivera. Everyone else should stay away.
So Kubel is going to likely hit with men on. If he can make the Yankees pay, then the Twins have a shot. If not, at least the Twins gave us that awesome 163rd game.
Red Sox – Victor Martinez
V-Mart has been carrying the Sox in a lot of different ways. He’s hit 336/405/507 since the Aug. 1 trade (which was highway robbery, by the way). If he hits, we win.
This is especially true if they keep Varitek out of the lineup. I love the guy, but his defense is sub-par now, and his hitting sucks. This is the lineup I want to see: Martinez at C, Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B. Defensively and offensively, I think this is the best lineup. Sure, put Youk at 1B and Mike Lowell at 3B, I’ll buy that too. Just keep Tek out of the lineup.
Phillies – Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll had his worst offensive season since 2002. Though still a plus defender, he had his worst defensive season since 2005. But he hits in a lineup with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, so he still scored 100 runs, pretty remarkable for a guy with a sub-.300 OBP. If he hits, I think they cruise.
Dodgers – Manny Ramirez
Seems obvious right? But Manny is a streaky player (insert PED jokes here). But over the course of his career he’s hit 286/399/550 in the playoffs (378 ABs). If he hits like that, Dodgers will win. If not, I think they will struggle to score runs.
Cardinals – Matt Holliday
Much like Mr. Kubel with Mauer, Holliday must hit behind King Albert. He is the best hitter on the planet, and I think Joe Torre is smart enough to put Pujols on an open first base when prudent (which is almost always). Holliday will hit with runners on base. And I believe that whomever has the better series (Holliday or Manny) will lead his team into the NLCS.
Rockies – Starting pitchers
Yes, a somewhat whimpy pick, but follow me here. This is actually a sneaky good pitching staff, with above average starters throughout. If Ubaldo Jiminez and Co. can shut down Philly’s lineup, I think this is your best bet for an upset in the first round. I like their pitching, I like their lineup. I think they are a better team than the 2007 bunch that rolled into the World Series. And yes, this is foreshadowing.
Predictions:
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Yankees over Twins in 3
NLDS
Cardinals over Dodgers in 4
Rockies over Phillies in 5
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Rockies over Cardinals in 7
World Series
Red Sox over Rockies in 6
And yes, I’m a complete homer.
So without further ado, my MLB playoff preview in the form of the player on each team that will make or break that team.
Yankees – CC Sabathia
As goes the big guy, so go the Yanks. Truth be told, CC was very good this year, though not quite the stud he was in 2008 or 2007. But the biggest question mark for him is his postseason record: 5 starts, 2-3 record, an ERA of 7.92, and walking nearly 8 batters per nine innings.
What’s up with that? Is it a sample size issue? Is he a choker? I don’t believe the last could be true – the guy carried the Brewers into the playoffs on his large back last season. I just think he’s been overworked the past two seasons, and this year he threw 230 innings, which is the fewest he’s thrown since 2006. I think he pitches well for the Yanks.
Angels – Scott Kazmir
Kazmir was a shell of himself this year, though he has a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts after being traded by the Rays. I think that trade crazy – why give up on a 25-year old lefty he strikes out a batter per inning?
I think if Kazmir shuts down the Sox, the Angels have a chance to overcome the ‘curse of the rally monkey.’ If not, I think the Sox cruise to another playoff victory
Twins – Jason Kubel
No one is going to pitch to Joe Mauer (if they’re smart). The only pitcher on the NY staff that should mess with Mauer is Mariano Rivera. Everyone else should stay away.
So Kubel is going to likely hit with men on. If he can make the Yankees pay, then the Twins have a shot. If not, at least the Twins gave us that awesome 163rd game.
Red Sox – Victor Martinez
V-Mart has been carrying the Sox in a lot of different ways. He’s hit 336/405/507 since the Aug. 1 trade (which was highway robbery, by the way). If he hits, we win.
This is especially true if they keep Varitek out of the lineup. I love the guy, but his defense is sub-par now, and his hitting sucks. This is the lineup I want to see: Martinez at C, Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B. Defensively and offensively, I think this is the best lineup. Sure, put Youk at 1B and Mike Lowell at 3B, I’ll buy that too. Just keep Tek out of the lineup.
Phillies – Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll had his worst offensive season since 2002. Though still a plus defender, he had his worst defensive season since 2005. But he hits in a lineup with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, so he still scored 100 runs, pretty remarkable for a guy with a sub-.300 OBP. If he hits, I think they cruise.
Dodgers – Manny Ramirez
Seems obvious right? But Manny is a streaky player (insert PED jokes here). But over the course of his career he’s hit 286/399/550 in the playoffs (378 ABs). If he hits like that, Dodgers will win. If not, I think they will struggle to score runs.
Cardinals – Matt Holliday
Much like Mr. Kubel with Mauer, Holliday must hit behind King Albert. He is the best hitter on the planet, and I think Joe Torre is smart enough to put Pujols on an open first base when prudent (which is almost always). Holliday will hit with runners on base. And I believe that whomever has the better series (Holliday or Manny) will lead his team into the NLCS.
Rockies – Starting pitchers
Yes, a somewhat whimpy pick, but follow me here. This is actually a sneaky good pitching staff, with above average starters throughout. If Ubaldo Jiminez and Co. can shut down Philly’s lineup, I think this is your best bet for an upset in the first round. I like their pitching, I like their lineup. I think they are a better team than the 2007 bunch that rolled into the World Series. And yes, this is foreshadowing.
Predictions:
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Yankees over Twins in 3
NLDS
Cardinals over Dodgers in 4
Rockies over Phillies in 5
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Rockies over Cardinals in 7
World Series
Red Sox over Rockies in 6
And yes, I’m a complete homer.
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