NBA Playoff Preview

The NBA Playoffs are upon us, and to me this is even more exciting than March Madness, for several reasons:

• It last longer
• NBA talent is the best in the world
• LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Pierce, and a few others have made the NBA playoffs over the past 3-5 seasons as exciting as any stretch during my lifetime
• I root for a team that's relevant

So without further pontificating, here's the NBA playoff preview. I'm going to rely heavily on John Hollinger's team stats on ESPN.com. I'm also pulling stuff from 82games.com and Basketball-Reference.com.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland vs. Detroit
According to Hollinger, the Cavs have the 4th best offense and the 3rd best defense, a killer combination. The Pistons are a fairly weak offensive team (21st) and middle of the road defensive team (16th). Match-ups are bad for the Pistons, and Tayshaun has shown he can't contain LeBron, and no one on the Pistons roster can match the energy of Varejao. And if you look at win shares or Roland Rating, the Pistons don't have a singular regular who is more valuable than Ilgauskus, Varejao and Mo Williams. In other words: Pure Cleveland domination. Prediction: Cavs in 4.

Boston vs. Chicago
This would have been much easier to call if KG was healthy. Still, the trio of Pierce/Allen/Rondo is better than anything Chicago can throw out there. The key match-up in the series is Rondo vs. Derrick Rose. If Rondo controls Rose, this series could get very short. Prediction: Boston in 6.

Orlando v. Philadelphia
This is where things get a little more interesting in the East. Orlando is the 8th best offensive team and top defensive team, so this seems like a no brainer, as the Sixers barely outscored their opponents over the season. But I like Andre Miller to carve up Orlando (relatively speaking) and I'm not sold on Dwight 'Superman' Howard as a playoff performer yet. Still, Orlando's firepower will be too much. Prediction: Orlando in 6.

Atlanta vs. Miami
Two words for you: Dwayne Wade. Throw out most of the stats. Neither team is dominant on either end of the floor, and when a team is evenly matched like this, I go with the best player. Prediction: Miami in 6.

Second Round
Cleveland over Miami in a heart-stopping 7-game series
Boston over Orlando, even without KG, in 7 games

Eastern Conference Championship
The LeBrons march past the KG-less Celtics in 5 games

Western Conference
Lakers vs. Utah
As much as I like Deron Williams and the Jazz, they cannot compete with the firepower of the Lakers. On a side note, according to Basketball-Reference.com, Gasol was more valuable than Kobe this year (Win Shares, scroll to the bottom of the page). Most other measures give Kobe a slight edge (including Hollinger's PER). Is the gap between Gasol and Kobe not that big, or are the numbers just not measuring all that happens on the court? Interesting topic. Discuss. Prediction: Lakers in 5.

Denver vs. New Orleans
According to Hollinger's aforementioned PER ranking, Carmelo is the 33rd best player in the league, behind the likes of Vince Carter and Leandro Barbosa. This smells to me like the best opening round series, and an upset special. Yes, the Hornets are a little thin behind Chris Paul, but they have CP3 and Denver doesn't. Prediction: Hornets in 7.

San Antonio vs. Dallas
The Spurs are still a very good defensive team, but no longer among the elite. But Duncan is still a top 10 player (though fading) and they have the weapons to handle the Mavs. I would have liked them a lot more if Manu was still playing, but the Spurs are still very dangerous. Prediction: Spurs in 6.

Portland vs. Houston
This should be an awesome series. Tracy McGrady has proven he is not an NBA difference-maker. You could make the argument that, when healthy, he's the 3rd or 4th best player on the Rockets. Good riddance. On the other side, the Blazers are loaded, with seven really good players. They are also opposites. Portland is one of the better offensive teams in the league, while the Rockets are defensive team. I'll take the deeper team with the best player in the series (Brandon Roy). Prediction: Portland in 6.

Western Conference Semi-finals
Lakers over Portland in a thrilling 7-game series
San Antonio over New Orleans in 6 games

Western Conference Finals
Lakers over San Antonio in 5 games. The Spurs will run out of gas.

NBA Finals
Cleveland over Lakers in 6 games. LeBron will be too much for LA.

Viva La Wakefield

Tim Wakefield is not a Hall of Famer. He has been an above-average pitcher who who had three great seasons (1992, 1995, 2002) and only one bad one (1993).

But he is one of the most important Red Sox players of my lifetime.

Here's a list of his various Red Sox accomplishments. All of these stats come via Baseball-Reference.com:

• He's third all-time in wins, behind only Roger Clemens and Cy Young
• He's third all-time in innings, again behind Clemens and Cy
• His 505 appearances is 2nd all-time behind Bob Stanley
• He's 2nd all-time in Ks behind Clemens
• He's 2nd all-time in games started, again behind Clemens
• To be fair, he's also the career leader in losses

But two moments will stick out more than the numbers.

First, Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. That may seem strange, but he had started (and won) Game 1 and 4 in the series, out dueling Mike Mussina both times. Then, with the game on the line, he entered in the 10th inning and shut down Matsui, Posada and Giambi, giving Trot and Mueller a chance to win it in the 11th.

Then Aaron 'freakin' Boone hit the game winner off Wake in the 11th. But the guy made only his third relief appearance of the season, and made one mistake in his 15 pitches. It was a gutsy effort, like almost every appearance of his career.

Major tangent here: I can't think about this game without getting angry and cursing Grady Little's name. Wake would never have been in that position had Grady managed like he had all year and removed Pedro after the laser shots by Jeter and Bernie. I was screaming at the TV like a madman, and yet Pedro faced two more batters, even with Embree and Timlin in the pen. Pedro's velocity was down, he was north of 100 pitches, and he wasn't locating his pitches. What other indicator do you need that a starter is cooked? Long live Terry Francona!

Back to Wake. Today's 9-inning complete game is my other favorite moment, not in and of itself, but because it encapsulates what Wake has meant to the team. A day game after a draining, 12-inning loss. If Wake throws a stinker, we probably see Nick Green throwing an inning. Instead he no-hits the A's for 7 innings and completes the game on just 111 pitches. The dancing knuckler saves the day again.

So while he may not make Coperstown, he's a first ballot Mangum Hall of Famer. Viva La Wakefield!

Another few Red Sox notes:

• We need Lowrie back. Watching Green throw from SS is like watching me throw from there in our company softball league: it looks like he's throwing from a little too far out of his range.
• Let's destroy the WBC! Just kidding. I find it funny that all these fans (close to 80% in a Boston.com poll) think the WBC is to blame for Dice-K's injury. Is that possible? Sure. It could also be the high mileage this dude has been putting on his arm since he was 16.
• I would like to Buchholz come up to take Dice-K's spot. I think he's the real deal, even after his rough 2008.

NBA MVP Race

Bill Simmons does a better job than I could handicapping the NBA MVP race, but here are my thoughts with my top 3, which is similar to the Sports Guys picks.

4. Chris Paul -- What an awesome season (see the link above) and he's probably the best point guard of my lifetime. Not the MVP to me though. Maybe in another season, but not with the three below.

3. Kobe Bryant -- Kobe is tremendous on both ends of the floor, but as the Celtics proved last spring, you can shut this guy down with a concerted team defensive effort. But he makes his teammates better, and he's leading the best team in the West. In another season, he might be a clear MVP choice.

2. Dwayne Wade -- He is so much fun to watch. He is a complete offensive monster, and I would not want to face him in the playoffs. The Miami roster does not scream 5th seed, but there they are, likely to bounce the young, talented Hawks in the first round and battle the LeBrons in the second round. I don't know how long Wade's peak is going to last, but we're witnessing one of the greatest peaks in NBA history. Sit back and enjoy.

1. LeBron James -- This is a no brainer to me. Simmons details the stats above (and others have talked about the historic nature of his season), but here's a few points:

• The Cavs are 66-15 (39-1 at home!) with Mo Williams as the second best player. Think about that for a moment. Mo Williams? He's a good player, but not even a second-level elite NBA player. Has any player carried their team to such a lofty level with such a non-descript supporting cast? Jordan had Pippen. Bird had a bunch of great Hall of Fame type teammates, as did Magic. Kobe has played with Shaq and now Gasol. You could easily argue, using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, that this is the best season of any NBA player in the history of the league.
• His defense, though not reaching his offensive output, has reached an elite level. He used to be a liability, and now he might be all-NBA defense. He has asserted himself in a way that makes me think the Lakers will be much better off facing Boston or Orlando in the Finals, because LeBron's physical defense on Kobe would be a series difference-maker.

A few other random NBA thoughts:

• Isiah Thomas is being hired as a coach, and he's going to redonate his salary. How about donating that salary to the Knicks, or your CBA investors. I can't imagine this marriage with FIU will end well.
• I think Jerry Sloan might be the best NBA coach of my lifetime. Yes, Phil Jackson's success is undeniable. But he has cherry-picked good situations since landing the great Chicago job with Jordan, and Sloan has built three separate NBA contenders (two with the Stockton-to-Malone formula) and has adjusted to three different NBA eras almost seamlessly. Congrats to him and John Stockton both. Oh yeah, and that Jordan guy.

Opening Week

I made the plunge and got MLB Extra Innings on DirectTV, which is awesome! I've been watching a ton of baseball over the past week, including several Red Sox games. Here are some not so random thoughts from week 1:

• John Lannan was the opening day starter for the Washington Nationals. His career highlights (on the Nationals website) include winning a school record 10 games in his final season at Siena College. Not saying this guy isn't a decent starter and doesn't have potential, but this is a franchise in trouble in the short term.
• I think the Beckett throwing at Abreu thing got over blown. I have no idea if Beckett was trying to throw at him or not. I think the umpires handled it poorly, and the Angels were in morning and reacted very emotionally (and I don't blame them). Some of the 'outrage' at Beckett's behavior seems a little odd. He didn't even hit Abreu. -- Added after I posted: Beckett was suspended 6 games? For what? Bob Watson of MLB said Beckett's action incited the an 'almost brawl.' Really? Not Abreu pointing at him and shouting? Not an umpire allowing a time out after Beckett has begun his wind up? Totally ridiculous.
• Announcers annoy me, and many of the local announcers are even as bad as Buck and McCarver. It really makes my appreciate the good ones, which include: Jon Miller and Joe Morgan (ESPN), and I wish they hadn't added Steve Phillips; Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy (Boston); Vin Scully(LA Dodgers); Harry Kalas, rest in peace (Philadelphia). I'm sure there are some others, but these are the ones I like listening to.
• Speaking of announcers, Rick Sutcliffe is awful. He says ridiculous stuff all the time, and his partners constantly try and correct him. He needs to be retired.
• I've read way too many articles about 'woe is this team' and 'this team is going to be the surprise' based on 6-7 games. How long before we stop analyzing this way? Who cares if the Red Sox are 2-4? That number doesn't mean anything. They may win 90, they may miss the playoffs. But six games in April aren't any more important than 6 games in July.
• I stand by my thoughts in my NL preview that the Mets will be awesome if the pitching comes together behind Santana. That Putz/K-Rod bullpen combo is awesome.
• If there's one pitcher in the major leagues I wouldn't want to face, it's Carlos Marmol. He's freakin' awesome. When Samardzjia comes up, that's an awesome Cubs bullpen.
• Emilio Bonifacio is off to a torid start for the Marlins, which has made him a popular fantasy pick-up. In 6 minor league seasons, his career line is 285/341/362, but had some decent minor league seasons recently. What am I trying to say? I'm not sold. His projection 'average' (courtesy of Fangraphs) is about a 670 OPS. Not real great for 3B.
• Why have the Pirates benched Andy LaRoche? The guy has totally stunk in the majors, but that was true before his 14 ABs this season. It's not as if they're legitimate NL contenders. You have a 25-year old 3B who has proven he can hit minor league pitching. Give him a full season and see what you have. And Ramon Vazquez is not a long-term answer to anything by utility infielder.

National League Preview

NL East
New York (94 wins)
The Mets offense is the best in the NL, and the pitching is good and will be better with the addition of K-Rod and Putz. The starting pitching is shallow, and I think they could have benefited by bringing Pedro back (though I understand why they didn’t). Still, I love the offense, and the defense has few holes. Why I might be wrong: When Mike Pelfrey and Odalis Perez are your #2 and #3 starters, you could be in trouble.

Philadelphia (91)
I also like the Phillies, just not as much as the Mets. My biggest worry: Ryan Howard. His OBP and SLG have been a steady decline since his MVP 2006 season. According to our friends at Baseball Prospectus and the stat VORP, Howard was only the 9th best 1B in baseball, just a few runs ahead of Joey Votto. Why I might be wrong: Raul Ibanez awful defense may hurt more than I think it will. Hamels and the bullpen could regress.

Atlanta (81)
A lot of smarter people than me are picking the Braves to have a playoff caliber year. I just don’t see it. The pitching is old (besides Jurrjens), and the starting outfield is Garrett Anderson, the winner of the CF ‘battle’ (Gregor Blanco or Jordan Schafer), and Jeff Francoeur (the worst offensive RF in baseball last season, and he sucked in the field too). This looks like a .500 team to me. Why I might be wrong: They could be worse if the pitching totally collapses or Chipper goes down for a long time.

Florida (75)
The Marlins will score runs with a young, exciting lineup. But I think the pitching could be awful, with Nolasco as the only true plus-pitcher in the bunch. Why I might be wrong: If the pitching works out, this team could win the division or wild card if other teams falter. This team has a lot of upside, and if I was picking a surprise division winner in the NL, the Marlins would be it.

Washington (67)
It’s never good to start the season with the resignation of your GM. The good news is Bowden wasn’t very good, so things may be looking up for the moribund Nationals franchise. Still, this season won’t be pretty. The offense is bad (even with the addition of Dunn) and they can’t prevent runs either. Why I might be wrong: If anything, I was too optimistic on the win total. I think Ryan Zimmerman will have a good season.

NL Central
Chicago (99)
The most hilarious thing when you read about the Cubs is the old “they’re built to win 97 games, but not the postseason.” Total crap. The real key last year was the team peaked early and was not playing well when the postseason came around. Regardless, the team is still very good and will cruise to its third straight NL Central title. Why I might be wrong: The loss of Mark DeRosa might be bigger than I think, and the bullpen is a bit of question mark.

St. Louis (84)
Tony LaRussa is not a genius. But he is pretty good at his job, and is willing to try new things. Trying Schumaker at 2B could be a stroke of genius, or a disaster. I still think it’s a good risk. I still don’t think they have the pitching to contend for playoff spot. Why I might be wrong: I have the pitching declining from last season, and that might change if Chris Carpenter returns to form. If so, watch out Cubbies.

Milwaukee (80)
I really wanted to put Milwaukee back in the playoff picture, but I don’t see it. Too many question marks in the rotation and the bullpen. Can they score runs? Possibly, but besides Braun and Fielder, no one else excites me in the lineup. Why I might be wrong: Yovani Gallardo is awesome, and he could fill the mammoth void left by C.C. If he does and Hart, Hall and Hardy hit well, the Brew Crew could contend.

Houston (78)
If you take a quick look at Houston’s lineup, they have an awesome core in Berkman, Carlos Lee, and 45-year-old Miguel Tejada. But man does it drop off a cliff after that. And behind Oswalt in the rotation, it’s Wandy Rodriguez (who has his first good season last year at age 29) and a bunch of old questions marks. Color me skeptical. Why I might be wrong: I don’t see a lot of upside, but if the old veteran starters perform, they could surprise.

Pittsburgh (72)
Do you know when the Pirates last made the postseason? 1992. Some guy named Bonds was their best player. Their last winning season? Yep, 1992. This is a lousy franchise that has little to cheer about since Barry left for the greener pastures of San Francisco. Nothing will change this year. Why I might be wrong: There is some long-term hope in the pipeline, and maybe some youngsters (the LaRoche brothers, Zach Duke) can step up and help Nate McLouth, who’s stranded on desert island.

Cincinnati (67)
Things have been marginally better for the Reds over the last 20 years, with their last postseason appearance in 1995 and 96-win season as recent as 1999. Oh yeah, that was 10 years ago. Is there some young talent on this team? Yes, but not enough to contend for more than a battle with Pittsburgh to not be the division’s worst. Why I might be wrong: If Jay Bruce joins Votto as a star, and Volquez and Cueto arrive, this team could be the new Rays.

NL West
Los Angeles (88)
Resigning Manny sealed this for me. None of the West’s teams are very good, and the Dodgers became the best by bringing back the borderline crazy genius. They have struggled to score runs over the past couple of years, but they should be better at that this year with a full year of crazy Manny. Why I might be wrong: When Eric Milton is your back-up if one of your starters break down, this could become a could term into a long summer in LA very quickly.

San Francisco (80)
The Giants are the cute pick in the NL to contend. Not saying they won’t (the division is lousy), but they’re offensive holes are huge, and the pitching is all a question mark after Cy Young-winner Lincecum. Why I might be wrong: A full season of Randy Johnson could push them past LA if the Dodgers stumble.

Arizona (77)
I would have liked the D-Backs’ chances better if they had retained Adam Dunn. The offense is young, and not very good. Yeah, Conor Jackson may blossom, but he’s 26 and he’s only a decent hitter. Stephen Drew is more likely to have the breakout year. Why I might be wrong: Young teams can always surprise, but I think the pitching will be worse than 2008 and the hitting will not be better enough to compensate.

Colorado (76)
Last year the Rockies didn’t hit or pitch particularly well, and they played lousy defense. And somehow they scratched their way to 74 wins. I think the pitching and defense will be better, but the offense is not good. Why I might be wrong: Tulowitski might return to 2007 form, and the pitching could be sufficient in a weak division.

Padres (69)
The Padres are a good defensive team, and I think the pitching will be improved in 2009. The offense will still stink. They could improve it by moving Kouzmanoff to the bench, and shifting Chase Headley from left field (where he’s below average defensively) to 3B (where he’s better than Kouz). Then Cliff Floyd could get more ABs. It ain’t rocket science folks. Why I might be wrong: Even with the moves I suggested, this looks like a last place team.

NLDS
Chicago over Philadelphia
Los Angeles over New York

NLCS
Chicago over Los Angeles

World Series
Chicago over Cleveland

American League Preview

AL East
1. Boston (97 wins)
I think there’s a chance that Boston will be better or just as good at 9 of 10 spots in the lineup (with left field as the question mark). The starting pitching is very good, and very deep, and the bullpen is deep. Why I might be wrong: Youkilis and Pedroia could come back to earth. Big Papi might be done. Dice-K ‘livin’ on the edge’ becomes ‘divin’ off a cliff.’ And the reconstructed bullpen is not as good as it looks on paper.

2. New York (94)
Two words: Sabathia and Teixeira. The offense will be much improved, but not to historic standards. And one of the young starters will step up behind C.C. and the others. Why I might be wrong: This team is still depending on a lot of old players. If Sabathia breaks down (which is a high possibility with as much as he pitched last year), they are not particularly deep in the rotation. The bullpen leading up to Mariano is still a little iffy. Wang may not come back as his old self.

3. Tampa Bay (89)
This team is bound to regress to the mean. The bullpen will not be as good, and they won’t score enough runs to keep up with New York and Boston. Why I might be wrong: They are the anti-Yankees. With such a young team, there is significant upside. Longoria may become the next Pujols, and Upton may blossom into a star.

4. Toronto (81)
Toronto was the best in the league at preventing runs last year, but with the loss of Shawn Marcum (who was very underrated last season) and a diminished bullpen, they will fall to the middle of the pack. This is bad because they aren’t very good at scoring runs. Why I might be wrong: The offense could be better than I think, and Halladay may carry them closer to 90 wins.

5. Baltimore (73)
The Orioles had a middle of the pack offense and a horrific pitching staff. I see no reason this will change. Yes, they have some young players who may improve, but they also have older players who are likely to decline. Why I might be wrong: I won’t be. They are not very good.

AL Central
1. Cleveland (91)
The Indians were very unlucky last year and could easily have been the best team in the division. I think the pitching will be better (Carmona couldn’t have been much worse), and the offense will be at least as good and probably better (especially if Travis Hafner remembers how to hit). Why I might be wrong: The pitching good be dreadful (especially if Cliff Lee falls off a cliff) and the offense might once again be a middle-of-the-pack outfit.

2. Chicago (90)
The While Sox are good at scoring runs and good at preventing them. They just won’t be as good as Cleveland this year (though it’s virtually a tie, but I had to make a call). If Quentin’s healthy for the whole season, the team could get better offensively. Why I might be wrong: Quentin and Dye might not put up numbers, and the starting pitching could collapse.

3. Minnesota (85)
I really wanted to put the Twins higher, but I can’t, especially with Mauer being hurt. The Twins can score runs, but preventing them will be a challenge this year. Why I might be wrong: The young outfield might be better, Mauer could be healthy, and the starters could be at least as strong as 2008.

4. Kansas City (75)
The Royals are the chic pick to be this year’s Rays. Two big problems: Turnarounds like that are not likely, and the roster doesn’t scream at me: Turnaround. (Of course, I didn’t see the Rays coming last year either.) Why I might be wrong: There are reasons to like this team. Improved OF defense with Coco Crisp. Some young potential stars in the infield (Gordon, Aviles, Butler) could break out. And the pitching could take a big step forward. I still think they finish 3rd at best.

5. Detroit (71)
The Tigers are not likely to be good at preventing runs, and I think their offense will decline substantially. Cabrera and Granderson are studs, but the rest of the lineup is old and not very good. The pitching will continue to be awful. Why I might be wrong: If their top four pitchers (Verlander, Jackson, Galarraga, Bonderman) hit their potential, this team could compete for the division or wild card. Not likely.

AL West
1. Los Angeles (84)
This team was very lucky last year, with a great record despite a middle-of-the-pack run differential. But a good pitching staff and a weak division will get the Angels into the playoffs again. Why I might be wrong: Guerrero might explode at any moment, and Abreu’s defense in left field could cost them a couple of key, close games.

2. Oakland (82)
The A’s were the worst in the league at scoring runs last season, but that should change dramatically with the addition of Holliday and Giambi. If Nomar ends up playing more 3B than Chavez, that could help as well. Why I might be wrong: If the young starters make the leap, Oakland could run away with the division.

3. Texas (69)
The Rangers are the anti-Oakland: A killer lineup, really crappy pitching. The problem is that I think the hitting will regress, and the pitching will still stink. Let’s just hope Josh Hamilton is in the home run derby again this year. Why I might be wrong: If the pitching is even decent, this team could contend in a very weak division.

4. Seattle (62)
The Mariners had the unfortunate circumstance of not being able to prevent runs or score a lot. Only Ichiro is a plus positional player. The pitching should be better (it can’t be much worse), but not enough to catch anyone else in this division. Why I might be wrong: The pitching could be a lot better (see: Felix Hernandez) and Beltre could return to his 2004 form. Yes, I’m grasping at straws.

ALDS
Boston beats Los Angeles
Cleveland beats New York

ALCS
Cleveland beats Boston

Random NBA Thoughts

I've watched quite a few NBA games recently (I don't usually start watching until after the All-Star break) and here are a few of my observations.

- Dwayne Wade is my favorite player to watch in the NBA. He does spectacular stuff each and every time he touches the ball. There's no question that he has recovered from his injuries, and I would not want to play Miami in the second round (I'm talking to you, Cleveland).

- Despite Dwayne's awesome season, LeBron is the MVP. Yes, LeBron's supporting cast is a little better, but it's not like he's playing with the '86 Celtics or anything. John Hollinger at ESPN thinks LeBron is having one of the best seasons ever.

- NBA officiating sucks compared to college, and I think it's because the rules are easier to interpret in the college ranks. No circle under the hoop, no strange defensive three seconds, a more pure game that's easier to officiate.

- What the heck happened to Jermaine O'Neal? I lived in Indiana when he was in his prime, and he was an awesome player to watch. It's sad that he's become a shell of his former self. Still a valuable player for the Heat, but not a force.

- I argued back in January that Starbury would be a bad fit for the Celtics. So far, I've been wrong. He's been a decent back-up PG, though I don't think the signing pushes the Celtics past the Cavs if I'm handicapping the playoffs today.