Let's get this out of the way first: Marco Scutaro is not a great hitter. He has been below league average every year of his career before 2009, but was one of the better hitting shortstops in MLB in 2009. (Stats.) He's also 33 (my age) which isn't old in real life, but could be old in baseball terms.
Depending on your fielding metric of choice, Scutaro has been either very good, or at least above average, since he started playing SS frequently in 2005. Paired with Pedroia, it should make for a solid double play partnership. And since the Red Sox SSs sucked in the field last season, this should be a huge upgrade.
So overall I think this is good. A 2-year contract is reasonable, as is the salary. I also prefer this to moving Pedroia over to SS, a position he hasn't played regularly in years. I would have been OK with that, but that only shifts the hole in the infield, it doesn't solve it.
Now the Sox just need to find a LF and some more arms for the bullpen...
Monday, December 7, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Red Sox Hot Stove: Position Player Needs
Are the Red Sox planning a spending spree? That's Peter Abraham's question from the GM meetings.
I have no idea what the Red Sox are planning. But here are my thoughts, position by position.
Catcher - This looks pretty clear cut. Victor Martinez will be the No. 1 catcher, and if Jason Varitek wants to be the back-up, the option is out there. The question is why. Varitek really provides no true value at this point. His hitting is bad, and his defense has deteriorated a lot. The Sox need a young or veteran catcher who's great defensively, with a rocket arm.
First Base - Yooouuuuuuuk! Martinez will play here as well.
Second Base - Mighty Might
Third Base - Mike Lowell looks like the incumbent, but his defense is slipping badly. Worth keeping? Sure. But we need a good back-up plan. Youk will likely play here when Martinez is playing 1B.
Shortstop - This is the big hole. Last year we started with Lugo, Lowrie and Green as the back-up. Green, unfortunately, got most of the ABs. Now we have an oft-injured Lowrie as our best option. I was hopeful we'd deal for J.J. Hardy, but the Twins beat the Sox in that 'sweepstakes.' At this point I would go for defense first, even at the expense of offense.
LF - Matt Holliday is the answer. I like Jason Bay, and would be happy with his return. But his defense is not good, and he's a future DH. But Holliday is basically the same bat but with a glove. Will it break the bank? You bet. But the Sox do not have a good internal alternative, so it's Holliday, Bay or a trade. I pick Holliday.
CF - My wife's favorite player, Jacoby Ellsbury.
RF - J.D. Drew, who is totally underrated right now by Sox fans. Is he a great hitter? No, but he's a very good one, and his defense is good as well. I'm fine penciling in Drew everyday.
DH - Big Papi has had two non-Papi years in-a-row. In 2009, he was an average hitter, which is unacceptable at DH for a team with money. Could he bounce back to his decent 2008? Sure, but I think the Sox need a back-up plan in case Big Papi falters. Jeremy Hermida could be that. He could play LF and Bay (if he re-signs) could move to DH. Lars Anderson, if he starts well in 2010, could be the bat. The Sox need to be ready if Ortiz is not the old Papi.
Bench - Hermida was an interesting edition. As Theo said at the time, there is upside here. At age 23 in 2007, Hermida had a very good season. He's been a below average hitter since then, but he is a plus defender. If Lowrie isn't the starting SS, he'd be a pretty good back-up infielder (if he's healthy). He can play SS and 3B well, and I bet 2B or 1B wouldn't be beyond him. They need another power bat off the bench, a Matt Stairs-type who can hit for the SS or back-up catcher.
I have no idea what the Red Sox are planning. But here are my thoughts, position by position.
Catcher - This looks pretty clear cut. Victor Martinez will be the No. 1 catcher, and if Jason Varitek wants to be the back-up, the option is out there. The question is why. Varitek really provides no true value at this point. His hitting is bad, and his defense has deteriorated a lot. The Sox need a young or veteran catcher who's great defensively, with a rocket arm.
First Base - Yooouuuuuuuk! Martinez will play here as well.
Second Base - Mighty Might
Third Base - Mike Lowell looks like the incumbent, but his defense is slipping badly. Worth keeping? Sure. But we need a good back-up plan. Youk will likely play here when Martinez is playing 1B.
Shortstop - This is the big hole. Last year we started with Lugo, Lowrie and Green as the back-up. Green, unfortunately, got most of the ABs. Now we have an oft-injured Lowrie as our best option. I was hopeful we'd deal for J.J. Hardy, but the Twins beat the Sox in that 'sweepstakes.' At this point I would go for defense first, even at the expense of offense.
LF - Matt Holliday is the answer. I like Jason Bay, and would be happy with his return. But his defense is not good, and he's a future DH. But Holliday is basically the same bat but with a glove. Will it break the bank? You bet. But the Sox do not have a good internal alternative, so it's Holliday, Bay or a trade. I pick Holliday.
CF - My wife's favorite player, Jacoby Ellsbury.
RF - J.D. Drew, who is totally underrated right now by Sox fans. Is he a great hitter? No, but he's a very good one, and his defense is good as well. I'm fine penciling in Drew everyday.
DH - Big Papi has had two non-Papi years in-a-row. In 2009, he was an average hitter, which is unacceptable at DH for a team with money. Could he bounce back to his decent 2008? Sure, but I think the Sox need a back-up plan in case Big Papi falters. Jeremy Hermida could be that. He could play LF and Bay (if he re-signs) could move to DH. Lars Anderson, if he starts well in 2010, could be the bat. The Sox need to be ready if Ortiz is not the old Papi.
Bench - Hermida was an interesting edition. As Theo said at the time, there is upside here. At age 23 in 2007, Hermida had a very good season. He's been a below average hitter since then, but he is a plus defender. If Lowrie isn't the starting SS, he'd be a pretty good back-up infielder (if he's healthy). He can play SS and 3B well, and I bet 2B or 1B wouldn't be beyond him. They need another power bat off the bench, a Matt Stairs-type who can hit for the SS or back-up catcher.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Batman vs. Batman
Recently I watched both The Dark Knight as well as the 1989's Batman. I've been wanting to watch Batman since Batman Begins came out in 2006, but hadn't had the chance. And when I saw The Dark Night, I really wanted to compare the two Jokers. Everyone was on the Heath Ledger bandwagon (I was as well), but in 1989 everyone was the on the Jack Nicholson bandwagon.
So here is my uber-geeky attempt to compare the two films. Enjoy.
Leading Lady vs. Leading Lady
This comparison is like asking me if I would rather watch a never-ending loop of the romatic scenes in Twilight or The Lake House; do I really have to pick? Kim Basinger is absolutely awful in this movie except for maybe 1 or 2 scenes. Maggie Gyllenhal is similarly bad. Yes, I know, everyone thinks she's great. But she over-acts almost everything, and there was a clear lack of chemistry between her and Bale. (Not surprising, seeing that he's a big jerk.) Winner: TDK, only because Bassinger sucked worse.
Alfred vs. Alfred
Though Michael Gough is very good in Batman, Michael Caine is awesome in his limited role in TDK. He's awesome in everything. Whether it's playing an eccentric isolationist in Children of Men, or a funny pageant coach in Miss Congeniality. He always delivers. Winner: Sir Michael Caine, by a hair.
Director vs. Director
Again, I thought Christopher Nolan would easily come out on top, but Tim Burton was closer than I thought. Batman is an awesome film, and very well done. Infusing it with Prince music is annoying 20 years later, but made some sense at the time. Still, Nolan's vision has lifted superheroes movies beyond just comic book/action fare. Winner: TDK, but closer than you think.
Gotham vs. Gotham
In Burton's vision, Gotham is a surreal city infusing a 1950s style (fedora hats everywhere) with a 1980s vibe (Prince music and selected modern amenities). The buildings, the streets, the people, all seem to come from a combination of eras. His Gotham is haunting, beautiful and very comic book-esqe.
Nolan's version is a dark, post-modern city. Filmed mostly in Chicago, Gotham looks gritty and real, from a car chase under a an overpass bridge, to the hospital Joker blows up. Like Burton, it seems like Nolan eyes every detail to make sure the city supported his gritty, dark tale.
Winner: Batman. Burton's vision is more distinctive and feels more like Gotham to me. TDK's Gotham feels too much like Chicago.
Batman vs. Batman
Before I re-watched Batman, I would have given it to Christian Bale hands down. He brought a coolness to Bruce Wayne and a dark menacing to Batman. But I had forgotten how well Michael Keaton did. His Bruce Wayne isn't a classic, flamboyant playboy, but more nuanced and subtle, as his his Batman.
I know this will go against modern sensibilities, but Keaton was better. Winner: Batman
Joker vs. Joker
This is the big one. Heath Ledger rightfully received major accolades for his performance as the Joker. After watching it a second time, it's hard to believe this is the same guy who's breakout performance was 10 Things I Hate About You, and then received acclaim for Brokeback Mountain. Ledger played the Joker as a more modern Joker, in no way related to the 1950s Joker, a complete physcopath.
So here is my uber-geeky attempt to compare the two films. Enjoy.
Leading Lady vs. Leading Lady
This comparison is like asking me if I would rather watch a never-ending loop of the romatic scenes in Twilight or The Lake House; do I really have to pick? Kim Basinger is absolutely awful in this movie except for maybe 1 or 2 scenes. Maggie Gyllenhal is similarly bad. Yes, I know, everyone thinks she's great. But she over-acts almost everything, and there was a clear lack of chemistry between her and Bale. (Not surprising, seeing that he's a big jerk.) Winner: TDK, only because Bassinger sucked worse.
Alfred vs. Alfred
Though Michael Gough is very good in Batman, Michael Caine is awesome in his limited role in TDK. He's awesome in everything. Whether it's playing an eccentric isolationist in Children of Men, or a funny pageant coach in Miss Congeniality. He always delivers. Winner: Sir Michael Caine, by a hair.
Director vs. Director
Again, I thought Christopher Nolan would easily come out on top, but Tim Burton was closer than I thought. Batman is an awesome film, and very well done. Infusing it with Prince music is annoying 20 years later, but made some sense at the time. Still, Nolan's vision has lifted superheroes movies beyond just comic book/action fare. Winner: TDK, but closer than you think.
Gotham vs. Gotham
In Burton's vision, Gotham is a surreal city infusing a 1950s style (fedora hats everywhere) with a 1980s vibe (Prince music and selected modern amenities). The buildings, the streets, the people, all seem to come from a combination of eras. His Gotham is haunting, beautiful and very comic book-esqe.
Nolan's version is a dark, post-modern city. Filmed mostly in Chicago, Gotham looks gritty and real, from a car chase under a an overpass bridge, to the hospital Joker blows up. Like Burton, it seems like Nolan eyes every detail to make sure the city supported his gritty, dark tale.
Winner: Batman. Burton's vision is more distinctive and feels more like Gotham to me. TDK's Gotham feels too much like Chicago.
Batman vs. Batman
Before I re-watched Batman, I would have given it to Christian Bale hands down. He brought a coolness to Bruce Wayne and a dark menacing to Batman. But I had forgotten how well Michael Keaton did. His Bruce Wayne isn't a classic, flamboyant playboy, but more nuanced and subtle, as his his Batman.
I know this will go against modern sensibilities, but Keaton was better. Winner: Batman
Joker vs. Joker
This is the big one. Heath Ledger rightfully received major accolades for his performance as the Joker. After watching it a second time, it's hard to believe this is the same guy who's breakout performance was 10 Things I Hate About You, and then received acclaim for Brokeback Mountain. Ledger played the Joker as a more modern Joker, in no way related to the 1950s Joker, a complete physcopath.
Jack Nicholson's performance was similarly acclaimed in 1989. His Joker was a combination of his classic, crazy persona and a classic Joker. The result is a dark, funny character, who, while not as dark as Ledger's Joker, is hardly someone you'd want to bring home to mom, unless you're a Manson.
But Nicholson's Joker was Nicholson with make-up and a few good one-liners. A fantastic performance, but it was an entire level behind Ledger, who is now the iconic Joker and the ultimate superhero villain performance, surpassing the greats (including Gene Hackman's Lex Luthor in 1978's Superman, and Ian McKellen's Magneto in the X-Men movies). Verdict: Heath Ledger is the Joker.
Overall
Batman was a great film. I've watched it probably 15 times, and I've never gotten sick of it. There's nothing glaringly wrong with the film except Bassinger and the fact that it spawned three awful sequels. (Everyone knows Patrick Stewart should have been Mr. Freeze, not Arnold! Where's my Delorean?)
The biggest gripe I have with TDK is that it is too dark. Was it a great film? Yes, but I don't think it was as good as Batman Begins, and when I left it after seeing it the first time, I left feeling depressed, not pumped. And when I leave a superhero movie, I want to be pumped.
But I can't ignore how good of a film TDK was; it's so well done, and I enjoyed it more the second time, especially with the expectation of the film's melancholy tones.
But what separates the two films is Heath Ledger. His performance makes TDK Batman's superior, if only by a little. And I would take either of these films over anything I saw in the theater this year. (That's right, G.I Joe, I'm talking about you.)
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
World Series Preview
My original playoff predictions were way off. So much for the Sox-Rox World Series. But I did a much better job in the LCS round, even picking the right number of games per series. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the bullpens are the key. Both teams have potent bats, both teams have some good starters. Both are decent defensive teams, according to Baseball Prosepectus' team defensive efficiency rating.
So the difference is the bullpen. I give the Yanks the edge their because of Mariano Rivera, but I don't trust Joba. I think Hughes will be OK.
The Phillies bullpen is an enigma. Brad Lidge has pitched well in the postseason, but he was awful all season long. So do you trust a streaky closer who has had dominant stretches in the past and has pitched well over the last 1 week+, or do you look at the season?
I think Lidge will implode against the tough Yankees lineup. There really isn't an easy out in the group, and if Teixiera starts hitting, there isn't a better 1-2-3-4 combo in baseball than Jeter-Damon-Tex-ARod. If Lidge has to pitch to that group, watch out. We could see some massive moonshots.
I don't trust the Phillies bullpen, even if the Yanks have some question marks. Yanks in 6.
But really it doesn't matter to me. As my brother recently said on Facebook that you're picking between two evil forces. I agree. I have never routed for a Philadelpia team, and I certainly would only root for the Yankees if they were playing Minions of Satan. So I'm not particularly thrilled with this matchup.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the bullpens are the key. Both teams have potent bats, both teams have some good starters. Both are decent defensive teams, according to Baseball Prosepectus' team defensive efficiency rating.
So the difference is the bullpen. I give the Yanks the edge their because of Mariano Rivera, but I don't trust Joba. I think Hughes will be OK.
The Phillies bullpen is an enigma. Brad Lidge has pitched well in the postseason, but he was awful all season long. So do you trust a streaky closer who has had dominant stretches in the past and has pitched well over the last 1 week+, or do you look at the season?
I think Lidge will implode against the tough Yankees lineup. There really isn't an easy out in the group, and if Teixiera starts hitting, there isn't a better 1-2-3-4 combo in baseball than Jeter-Damon-Tex-ARod. If Lidge has to pitch to that group, watch out. We could see some massive moonshots.
I don't trust the Phillies bullpen, even if the Yanks have some question marks. Yanks in 6.
But really it doesn't matter to me. As my brother recently said on Facebook that you're picking between two evil forces. I agree. I have never routed for a Philadelpia team, and I certainly would only root for the Yankees if they were playing Minions of Satan. So I'm not particularly thrilled with this matchup.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Winning more important than being macho
The Baltimore Ravens started out 3-0. They had good wins over the Chiefs, Chargers and Browns. Many commentators were wondering if the emergence of Joe Flacco combined with a potent defense could make them a big-time contender in the AFC.
Then the Patriots game happened. The Ravens fell 27-21, with a couple of roughing the passer calls and a dropped Derrik Mason pass sunk formerly undefeated Baltimore.
And then the idiot Ravens arrived. Ray Lewis and other Ravens opened their mouths and called out the refs, the NFL rules, and Tom Brady. They took no blame themselves.
The next week they lost to the Bengals 17-14, and a big reason was a late hit by Lewis on Chad Ochocinco, which extended a game-winning Cincinnati drive. He led with his helmet and popped Chad late in the helmet. A completely stupid move that was a big reason why they lost.
That game was followed by a heart-breaking 33-31 loss to Favre and the Vikings.
The season is hardly lost as they come out of a week 7 bye. They play the Broncos this week, and a victory would put them at 4-3 and in decent shape to make the playoffs. But the road would have been much easier if they went into the buy at 4-2 or 5-1.
I think they got what they deserved for whining after the Patriots game. Should they have been upset? Yes, most defensive players think the QB rules are lame. But their comments sounded like a bunch of fans on talk radio, not players who should be more interested in winning than looking like tough guys. And they went on all week about how they would hit even harder in the next game.
And then Lewis kills his team by being a 'tough guy' and laying out Ochocinco in stupid fashion. Last time I checked, the goal of the NFL is to win games, not impress your friends with your machismo. Lewis got exactly what he deserved -- a loss for a very stupid decision at a key point in the game.
Will the Ravens make the playoffs? I don't think so. They have a tough schedule, and the defense isn't as good as it has been. They could get hot, and Flacco is very good. But they will be hard pressed to overcome the their own need to be macho instead of winners.
Then the Patriots game happened. The Ravens fell 27-21, with a couple of roughing the passer calls and a dropped Derrik Mason pass sunk formerly undefeated Baltimore.
And then the idiot Ravens arrived. Ray Lewis and other Ravens opened their mouths and called out the refs, the NFL rules, and Tom Brady. They took no blame themselves.
The next week they lost to the Bengals 17-14, and a big reason was a late hit by Lewis on Chad Ochocinco, which extended a game-winning Cincinnati drive. He led with his helmet and popped Chad late in the helmet. A completely stupid move that was a big reason why they lost.
That game was followed by a heart-breaking 33-31 loss to Favre and the Vikings.
The season is hardly lost as they come out of a week 7 bye. They play the Broncos this week, and a victory would put them at 4-3 and in decent shape to make the playoffs. But the road would have been much easier if they went into the buy at 4-2 or 5-1.
I think they got what they deserved for whining after the Patriots game. Should they have been upset? Yes, most defensive players think the QB rules are lame. But their comments sounded like a bunch of fans on talk radio, not players who should be more interested in winning than looking like tough guys. And they went on all week about how they would hit even harder in the next game.
And then Lewis kills his team by being a 'tough guy' and laying out Ochocinco in stupid fashion. Last time I checked, the goal of the NFL is to win games, not impress your friends with your machismo. Lewis got exactly what he deserved -- a loss for a very stupid decision at a key point in the game.
Will the Ravens make the playoffs? I don't think so. They have a tough schedule, and the defense isn't as good as it has been. They could get hot, and Flacco is very good. But they will be hard pressed to overcome the their own need to be macho instead of winners.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
MLB Playoffs: LCS Thoughts
OK, I suck at predicting the MLB postseason. My World Series match-up of the Rox and Sox flopped in a total of seven playoff games. So much for that.
So I'll take another shot at this.
Angels v. Yankees
The Yanks look scary good, as much as I don't want to admit it. I don't trust their starters after CC, but the lineup is awesome and it will be difficult to to score on the NY bullpen after the 7th inning with Joba, Hughes and Mariano.
But the Angels are on a roll, and that lineup can score runs in any way. I still think you can pitch to Vlad and Torii Hunter, but Kendry Morales is good, and the lineup is scary when Napoli catches.
Prediction: Yanks in 6
Phillies v. Dodgers
I don't trust the Dodgers. Can't really put my finger on it, but I don't think see them beating the Phillies. I wouldn't pitch to Manny with Loney behind him, and I think the lineup can be put in check by good pitching.
For Philadelphia, Cliff Lee looks awesome, and I think the other starters will be good enough. The Achilles heel is the bullpen. I wouldn't let any one of those guys pitch to Manny no matter what. Lidge actually shouldn't even be pitching batting practice to Joe Torre.
Prediction: Phillies in 5
World Series Prediction: Yanks in 7
And if you think I'm trying a reverse jinks, I'm certainly not above such behavior. Yankees sucks!
So I'll take another shot at this.
Angels v. Yankees
The Yanks look scary good, as much as I don't want to admit it. I don't trust their starters after CC, but the lineup is awesome and it will be difficult to to score on the NY bullpen after the 7th inning with Joba, Hughes and Mariano.
But the Angels are on a roll, and that lineup can score runs in any way. I still think you can pitch to Vlad and Torii Hunter, but Kendry Morales is good, and the lineup is scary when Napoli catches.
Prediction: Yanks in 6
Phillies v. Dodgers
I don't trust the Dodgers. Can't really put my finger on it, but I don't think see them beating the Phillies. I wouldn't pitch to Manny with Loney behind him, and I think the lineup can be put in check by good pitching.
For Philadelphia, Cliff Lee looks awesome, and I think the other starters will be good enough. The Achilles heel is the bullpen. I wouldn't let any one of those guys pitch to Manny no matter what. Lidge actually shouldn't even be pitching batting practice to Joe Torre.
Prediction: Phillies in 5
World Series Prediction: Yanks in 7
And if you think I'm trying a reverse jinks, I'm certainly not above such behavior. Yankees sucks!
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
MLB Playoff Preview
If you didn’t watch or see the highlights of the awesome Twins-Tigers play-in game (or as I like to call it ‘The Game For the Opportunity to Get Swept by the Yankees’), then you’re an idiot. (Sorry, poor Office reference.) Seriously though, that game encapsulated why I love playoff baseball: the drama, the unpredictability, the crazy fans. Only two post-season events are better: playoff NHL hockey, and the WNBA playoffs.
So without further ado, my MLB playoff preview in the form of the player on each team that will make or break that team.
Yankees – CC Sabathia
As goes the big guy, so go the Yanks. Truth be told, CC was very good this year, though not quite the stud he was in 2008 or 2007. But the biggest question mark for him is his postseason record: 5 starts, 2-3 record, an ERA of 7.92, and walking nearly 8 batters per nine innings.
What’s up with that? Is it a sample size issue? Is he a choker? I don’t believe the last could be true – the guy carried the Brewers into the playoffs on his large back last season. I just think he’s been overworked the past two seasons, and this year he threw 230 innings, which is the fewest he’s thrown since 2006. I think he pitches well for the Yanks.
Angels – Scott Kazmir
Kazmir was a shell of himself this year, though he has a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts after being traded by the Rays. I think that trade crazy – why give up on a 25-year old lefty he strikes out a batter per inning?
I think if Kazmir shuts down the Sox, the Angels have a chance to overcome the ‘curse of the rally monkey.’ If not, I think the Sox cruise to another playoff victory
Twins – Jason Kubel
No one is going to pitch to Joe Mauer (if they’re smart). The only pitcher on the NY staff that should mess with Mauer is Mariano Rivera. Everyone else should stay away.
So Kubel is going to likely hit with men on. If he can make the Yankees pay, then the Twins have a shot. If not, at least the Twins gave us that awesome 163rd game.
Red Sox – Victor Martinez
V-Mart has been carrying the Sox in a lot of different ways. He’s hit 336/405/507 since the Aug. 1 trade (which was highway robbery, by the way). If he hits, we win.
This is especially true if they keep Varitek out of the lineup. I love the guy, but his defense is sub-par now, and his hitting sucks. This is the lineup I want to see: Martinez at C, Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B. Defensively and offensively, I think this is the best lineup. Sure, put Youk at 1B and Mike Lowell at 3B, I’ll buy that too. Just keep Tek out of the lineup.
Phillies – Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll had his worst offensive season since 2002. Though still a plus defender, he had his worst defensive season since 2005. But he hits in a lineup with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, so he still scored 100 runs, pretty remarkable for a guy with a sub-.300 OBP. If he hits, I think they cruise.
Dodgers – Manny Ramirez
Seems obvious right? But Manny is a streaky player (insert PED jokes here). But over the course of his career he’s hit 286/399/550 in the playoffs (378 ABs). If he hits like that, Dodgers will win. If not, I think they will struggle to score runs.
Cardinals – Matt Holliday
Much like Mr. Kubel with Mauer, Holliday must hit behind King Albert. He is the best hitter on the planet, and I think Joe Torre is smart enough to put Pujols on an open first base when prudent (which is almost always). Holliday will hit with runners on base. And I believe that whomever has the better series (Holliday or Manny) will lead his team into the NLCS.
Rockies – Starting pitchers
Yes, a somewhat whimpy pick, but follow me here. This is actually a sneaky good pitching staff, with above average starters throughout. If Ubaldo Jiminez and Co. can shut down Philly’s lineup, I think this is your best bet for an upset in the first round. I like their pitching, I like their lineup. I think they are a better team than the 2007 bunch that rolled into the World Series. And yes, this is foreshadowing.
Predictions:
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Yankees over Twins in 3
NLDS
Cardinals over Dodgers in 4
Rockies over Phillies in 5
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Rockies over Cardinals in 7
World Series
Red Sox over Rockies in 6
And yes, I’m a complete homer.
So without further ado, my MLB playoff preview in the form of the player on each team that will make or break that team.
Yankees – CC Sabathia
As goes the big guy, so go the Yanks. Truth be told, CC was very good this year, though not quite the stud he was in 2008 or 2007. But the biggest question mark for him is his postseason record: 5 starts, 2-3 record, an ERA of 7.92, and walking nearly 8 batters per nine innings.
What’s up with that? Is it a sample size issue? Is he a choker? I don’t believe the last could be true – the guy carried the Brewers into the playoffs on his large back last season. I just think he’s been overworked the past two seasons, and this year he threw 230 innings, which is the fewest he’s thrown since 2006. I think he pitches well for the Yanks.
Angels – Scott Kazmir
Kazmir was a shell of himself this year, though he has a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts after being traded by the Rays. I think that trade crazy – why give up on a 25-year old lefty he strikes out a batter per inning?
I think if Kazmir shuts down the Sox, the Angels have a chance to overcome the ‘curse of the rally monkey.’ If not, I think the Sox cruise to another playoff victory
Twins – Jason Kubel
No one is going to pitch to Joe Mauer (if they’re smart). The only pitcher on the NY staff that should mess with Mauer is Mariano Rivera. Everyone else should stay away.
So Kubel is going to likely hit with men on. If he can make the Yankees pay, then the Twins have a shot. If not, at least the Twins gave us that awesome 163rd game.
Red Sox – Victor Martinez
V-Mart has been carrying the Sox in a lot of different ways. He’s hit 336/405/507 since the Aug. 1 trade (which was highway robbery, by the way). If he hits, we win.
This is especially true if they keep Varitek out of the lineup. I love the guy, but his defense is sub-par now, and his hitting sucks. This is the lineup I want to see: Martinez at C, Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B. Defensively and offensively, I think this is the best lineup. Sure, put Youk at 1B and Mike Lowell at 3B, I’ll buy that too. Just keep Tek out of the lineup.
Phillies – Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll had his worst offensive season since 2002. Though still a plus defender, he had his worst defensive season since 2005. But he hits in a lineup with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, so he still scored 100 runs, pretty remarkable for a guy with a sub-.300 OBP. If he hits, I think they cruise.
Dodgers – Manny Ramirez
Seems obvious right? But Manny is a streaky player (insert PED jokes here). But over the course of his career he’s hit 286/399/550 in the playoffs (378 ABs). If he hits like that, Dodgers will win. If not, I think they will struggle to score runs.
Cardinals – Matt Holliday
Much like Mr. Kubel with Mauer, Holliday must hit behind King Albert. He is the best hitter on the planet, and I think Joe Torre is smart enough to put Pujols on an open first base when prudent (which is almost always). Holliday will hit with runners on base. And I believe that whomever has the better series (Holliday or Manny) will lead his team into the NLCS.
Rockies – Starting pitchers
Yes, a somewhat whimpy pick, but follow me here. This is actually a sneaky good pitching staff, with above average starters throughout. If Ubaldo Jiminez and Co. can shut down Philly’s lineup, I think this is your best bet for an upset in the first round. I like their pitching, I like their lineup. I think they are a better team than the 2007 bunch that rolled into the World Series. And yes, this is foreshadowing.
Predictions:
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Yankees over Twins in 3
NLDS
Cardinals over Dodgers in 4
Rockies over Phillies in 5
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Rockies over Cardinals in 7
World Series
Red Sox over Rockies in 6
And yes, I’m a complete homer.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)