NFL Thoughts

Week 16 is in the books, so it’s time to look to Week 17 and the playoffs. Here are some not so random NFL thoughts.

AFC
Over the past decade, the AFC has been represented in the Super Bowl by the following teams: Titans, Ravens, Patriots (4), Raiders, Steelers (2), Colts. Outside of this group, only the Broncos and Chargers have made it to the AFC Championship game. So much for parity.

That group has really been dominated by the Patriots, Steelers and Colts. Each of those teams is in a very different spot as we head into Week 17.

Patriots – New England wins this season: Eagles, Redskins, Giants, Bills (twice), Falcons, Ravens, Titans, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jets, Panthers, Jags. Loses: Bengals, Jets, Broncos, Colts, Saints, Dolphins. The Pats have beat some good teams, but they haven’t beat a quality opponent on the road since Week 1 in Philly. They only lose to good teams (except for maybe that Dolphins loss), but there are only good teams in the playoffs. I really want them to do well, to believe in the Pats magic, but I can’t talk myself into it.

Colts – Is it possible that this is the worst 14-1 team in history? I’m probably overstating, but I see a flawed team. I see a prolific passing game matched with the least productive running game in the NFL. And it’s not just total yards: the Colts are averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Yikes. I also see a mediocre defense. Do I think this team is destined to make the Super Bowl? No. Would I bet against them? Maybe.

Steelers – Yes, they seem to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. That’s only natural. And despite loses to the Bears, Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, they can still make the playoffs. I have a new tie-breaker for the NFL: a bunch of loses to some of the league’s crappiest teams should keep you out. Some commentators say they wouldn’t want to face this group in the playoffs. If I’m the Pats, Colts or Bengals, I hope to.

Other AFC thoughts:
· The Chargers are going to disappoint again this postseason because a lack of a running game. LDT has not been good, and Sproles is not the answer.
· I think the team to watch is the Bengals (can’t believe I just wrote that sentence). Balanced, weapon-filled offense, a solid defense, and they haven’t collapsed like other teams headed to the playoffs. This could be the year the Bengals potential is filled.
· Mark Sanchez will be a very good NFL QB, but he’s not there yet.
· I’m glad the Titans will not make the playoffs. Teams on a roll like that are not good WC round opponents.

NFC
The playoff picture (at least who’s in) is set. Now it’s a week jockeying for seeds and a first-round bye, because the Vikings are really trying to give it away. Here are some players/coaches to watch.

Brett Favre/Adrian Peterson/Brad Childress – I can’t decide if the Vikings are well coached or not. All last night I was screaming at the TV each time a big play happened, and AP wasn’t on the field. I cursed with Favre as they sent in the ‘big’ personnel package to give the ball to Chester Taylor on a sweep at the goal line. I don’t know what to make of these guys. Favre is still good for 1-3 really bad decisions a game, AP is a monster who can’t hold onto the ball, and Childress (and his staff) still haven’t figured out the right balance between the deep passing game and using AP to pound opponents into the ground. And it’s Week 16. Crazy.

Tony Romo/Aaron Rodgers – The Cowboys and Packers are flawed teams. The Cowboys are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, and the Packers are banged up and struggle to protect the QB against elite pass rushers. But these two QBs are very good (with good offensive weapons), and could easily get hot and lead a team to the Super Bowl. I believe we’ll see one of these guys in the NFC Championship.

Donovan McNabb/Andy Reid – Could this be the year? They are quietly flying under the radar, as the Saints and Vikings struggle. There’s no reason they couldn’t get to the Super Bowl against the other flawed NFC elite, especially if they get a bye. I’m not picking them (yet), but I think this could be the year McNabb and Reid take the huge monkey off their collective back and take their place as one of the best QB-coaching combos of all-time.

Other NFC thoughts:
· I still think the Saints are the team to beat, but they can’t get in those huge holes in the playoffs. Brees is playing the best QB in the league right now.
· The Cardinals won’t make it out of the first round. (Of course, I said the same thing last year.)
· The Washington situation is extremely entertaining for all non-Washington fans. A coach possible doing an f-you with one of the worst fake punts in the history of football? The same coach holding out the best DT in football on key short-yardage plays? Clinton Portis? Fanatastic. Unless you’re a Washington fan.