World Series Preview

My original playoff predictions were way off. So much for the Sox-Rox World Series. But I did a much better job in the LCS round, even picking the right number of games per series. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the bullpens are the key. Both teams have potent bats, both teams have some good starters. Both are decent defensive teams, according to Baseball Prosepectus' team defensive efficiency rating.

So the difference is the bullpen. I give the Yanks the edge their because of Mariano Rivera, but I don't trust Joba. I think Hughes will be OK.

The Phillies bullpen is an enigma. Brad Lidge has pitched well in the postseason, but he was awful all season long. So do you trust a streaky closer who has had dominant stretches in the past and has pitched well over the last 1 week+, or do you look at the season?

I think Lidge will implode against the tough Yankees lineup. There really isn't an easy out in the group, and if Teixiera starts hitting, there isn't a better 1-2-3-4 combo in baseball than Jeter-Damon-Tex-ARod. If Lidge has to pitch to that group, watch out. We could see some massive moonshots.

I don't trust the Phillies bullpen, even if the Yanks have some question marks. Yanks in 6.

But really it doesn't matter to me. As my brother recently said on Facebook that you're picking between two evil forces. I agree. I have never routed for a Philadelpia team, and I certainly would only root for the Yankees if they were playing Minions of Satan. So I'm not particularly thrilled with this matchup.

Winning more important than being macho

The Baltimore Ravens started out 3-0. They had good wins over the Chiefs, Chargers and Browns. Many commentators were wondering if the emergence of Joe Flacco combined with a potent defense could make them a big-time contender in the AFC.

Then the Patriots game happened. The Ravens fell 27-21, with a couple of roughing the passer calls and a dropped Derrik Mason pass sunk formerly undefeated Baltimore.

And then the idiot Ravens arrived. Ray Lewis and other Ravens opened their mouths and called out the refs, the NFL rules, and Tom Brady. They took no blame themselves.

The next week they lost to the Bengals 17-14, and a big reason was a late hit by Lewis on Chad Ochocinco, which extended a game-winning Cincinnati drive. He led with his helmet and popped Chad late in the helmet. A completely stupid move that was a big reason why they lost.

That game was followed by a heart-breaking 33-31 loss to Favre and the Vikings.

The season is hardly lost as they come out of a week 7 bye. They play the Broncos this week, and a victory would put them at 4-3 and in decent shape to make the playoffs. But the road would have been much easier if they went into the buy at 4-2 or 5-1.

I think they got what they deserved for whining after the Patriots game. Should they have been upset? Yes, most defensive players think the QB rules are lame. But their comments sounded like a bunch of fans on talk radio, not players who should be more interested in winning than looking like tough guys. And they went on all week about how they would hit even harder in the next game.

And then Lewis kills his team by being a 'tough guy' and laying out Ochocinco in stupid fashion. Last time I checked, the goal of the NFL is to win games, not impress your friends with your machismo. Lewis got exactly what he deserved -- a loss for a very stupid decision at a key point in the game.

Will the Ravens make the playoffs? I don't think so. They have a tough schedule, and the defense isn't as good as it has been. They could get hot, and Flacco is very good. But they will be hard pressed to overcome the their own need to be macho instead of winners.

MLB Playoffs: LCS Thoughts

OK, I suck at predicting the MLB postseason. My World Series match-up of the Rox and Sox flopped in a total of seven playoff games. So much for that.

So I'll take another shot at this.

Angels v. Yankees

The Yanks look scary good, as much as I don't want to admit it. I don't trust their starters after CC, but the lineup is awesome and it will be difficult to to score on the NY bullpen after the 7th inning with Joba, Hughes and Mariano.

But the Angels are on a roll, and that lineup can score runs in any way. I still think you can pitch to Vlad and Torii Hunter, but Kendry Morales is good, and the lineup is scary when Napoli catches.

Prediction: Yanks in 6

Phillies v. Dodgers

I don't trust the Dodgers. Can't really put my finger on it, but I don't think see them beating the Phillies. I wouldn't pitch to Manny with Loney behind him, and I think the lineup can be put in check by good pitching.

For Philadelphia, Cliff Lee looks awesome, and I think the other starters will be good enough. The Achilles heel is the bullpen. I wouldn't let any one of those guys pitch to Manny no matter what. Lidge actually shouldn't even be pitching batting practice to Joe Torre.

Prediction: Phillies in 5

World Series Prediction: Yanks in 7

And if you think I'm trying a reverse jinks, I'm certainly not above such behavior. Yankees sucks!

MLB Playoff Preview

If you didn’t watch or see the highlights of the awesome Twins-Tigers play-in game (or as I like to call it ‘The Game For the Opportunity to Get Swept by the Yankees’), then you’re an idiot. (Sorry, poor Office reference.) Seriously though, that game encapsulated why I love playoff baseball: the drama, the unpredictability, the crazy fans. Only two post-season events are better: playoff NHL hockey, and the WNBA playoffs.

So without further ado, my MLB playoff preview in the form of the player on each team that will make or break that team.

Yankees – CC Sabathia
As goes the big guy, so go the Yanks. Truth be told, CC was very good this year, though not quite the stud he was in 2008 or 2007. But the biggest question mark for him is his postseason record: 5 starts, 2-3 record, an ERA of 7.92, and walking nearly 8 batters per nine innings.

What’s up with that? Is it a sample size issue? Is he a choker? I don’t believe the last could be true – the guy carried the Brewers into the playoffs on his large back last season. I just think he’s been overworked the past two seasons, and this year he threw 230 innings, which is the fewest he’s thrown since 2006. I think he pitches well for the Yanks.

Angels – Scott Kazmir
Kazmir was a shell of himself this year, though he has a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts after being traded by the Rays. I think that trade crazy – why give up on a 25-year old lefty he strikes out a batter per inning?

I think if Kazmir shuts down the Sox, the Angels have a chance to overcome the ‘curse of the rally monkey.’ If not, I think the Sox cruise to another playoff victory

Twins – Jason Kubel
No one is going to pitch to Joe Mauer (if they’re smart). The only pitcher on the NY staff that should mess with Mauer is Mariano Rivera. Everyone else should stay away.

So Kubel is going to likely hit with men on. If he can make the Yankees pay, then the Twins have a shot. If not, at least the Twins gave us that awesome 163rd game.

Red Sox – Victor Martinez
V-Mart has been carrying the Sox in a lot of different ways. He’s hit 336/405/507 since the Aug. 1 trade (which was highway robbery, by the way). If he hits, we win.

This is especially true if they keep Varitek out of the lineup. I love the guy, but his defense is sub-par now, and his hitting sucks. This is the lineup I want to see: Martinez at C, Youk at 3B and Kotchman at 1B. Defensively and offensively, I think this is the best lineup. Sure, put Youk at 1B and Mike Lowell at 3B, I’ll buy that too. Just keep Tek out of the lineup.

Phillies – Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll had his worst offensive season since 2002. Though still a plus defender, he had his worst defensive season since 2005. But he hits in a lineup with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, so he still scored 100 runs, pretty remarkable for a guy with a sub-.300 OBP. If he hits, I think they cruise.

Dodgers – Manny Ramirez
Seems obvious right? But Manny is a streaky player (insert PED jokes here). But over the course of his career he’s hit 286/399/550 in the playoffs (378 ABs). If he hits like that, Dodgers will win. If not, I think they will struggle to score runs.

Cardinals – Matt Holliday
Much like Mr. Kubel with Mauer, Holliday must hit behind King Albert. He is the best hitter on the planet, and I think Joe Torre is smart enough to put Pujols on an open first base when prudent (which is almost always). Holliday will hit with runners on base. And I believe that whomever has the better series (Holliday or Manny) will lead his team into the NLCS.

Rockies – Starting pitchers
Yes, a somewhat whimpy pick, but follow me here. This is actually a sneaky good pitching staff, with above average starters throughout. If Ubaldo Jiminez and Co. can shut down Philly’s lineup, I think this is your best bet for an upset in the first round. I like their pitching, I like their lineup. I think they are a better team than the 2007 bunch that rolled into the World Series. And yes, this is foreshadowing.

Predictions:
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Yankees over Twins in 3

NLDS
Cardinals over Dodgers in 4
Rockies over Phillies in 5

ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Rockies over Cardinals in 7

World Series
Red Sox over Rockies in 6

And yes, I’m a complete homer.

State of the Cougars: September

I'm sure some BYU fans consider this season a failure already. After the win over Oklahoma, it was natural to see this as a non-BCS team's best chance to be in the BCS-title game. And it could have been BYU's best season since 1996, and its first unbeaten season since 1984.


But the season hasn't changed that much for me. Lost in the euphoria of the OK win was the fact that the Cougars were still unlikely to finish the season undefeated. The FSU game worried me (though I thought we'd win), and Utah and TCU are both very good teams. And there's the inevitable let-down game where a good team struggles against a lesser opponent (see USC losing to Washington).

Offense
I love Max Hall. He may be the most confident/cocky QB we've had since Ty Detmer. He believes he can make any throw at anytime.

But that's also his problem. Sometimes I wish he would throw it away instead of throwing the picks. His numbers this year aren't very good. Yes, his completion percentage is high (67%), but he has 8 picks to go with his 8 TDs. Yes, he's averaging almost 300 yards, his passing efficiency is 150+, but if he doesn't get more accurate (from an INT perspective), we may see him throw away a big game.

The biggest problem in passing game though is lack of consistency at WR. Besides Pitta, who can Hall depend on? The announcers on Saturday said Jacobson was on the same level with Austin Collie. Sorry man, Jacobson is fast, but he's not even close. He's very inconsistent. And after Jacobson the consistency is almost zero.

The running game will be fine. Unga looked awesome against CSU. I know everyone was high on Kariya and Di Luigi after the OK game, but they are back-ups. Unga is needed for the long-term health of the offense.

Defense
The defense played the game of their life against the Sooners. It's been a mixed bag since. They got beat up by the speed of FSU, and CSU had more success than they should have.

As usual, my biggest problem with the defense is speed at LB and below-average play in the defensive backfield. I really like Brian Logan, but man taller receivers pick on him and there's nothing he can do about it. The LBs have played well, especially against the run.

Special Teams
Is it possible for BYU to have a decent kick-off team? Less than 20 yards, really? Bad field position hurts both the offense and defense.

The Mtn and DirectTV
I hate DirectTV. Don't dare tell me you're not carrying Versus because Comcast is greedy. I don't care. Get it done. I switched over to your stupid service just to get BYU football, and then two of the biggest games of the year (FSU and TCU) I can't see at home. Let me make the choice and pay a little extra. On top of that, I won't be able to watch the NHL this year. Curse you DirectTV! Curse you!

Overall, I love having the Mtn and getting to see the all the BYU games while living in Wisconsin. But here are some improvements they could make:

• I want all games in HD. I know, I know. I sound like a whining 3 year-old. But I've gotten used to watching football in HD and it's hard to go back.
• Get rid of Todd Christensen. He's awful. We need some good announcers. Come on guys. Go find somebody who doesn't suck and makes observations I couldn't make.
• The half-time studio show is painful. Why do you need three awkward guys? Just go down to one awkward guy until you find a good group.

I realize this will likely get better with time; the Big Ten Network is having similar growing pains.

RISE AND SHOUT!

Don't want to be like Mike

A friend of mine once said that the differences between Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant was: 1) MJ was a better player; and 2) MJ was better as portraying himself as lovable to his adoring public.

I disagreed with my friend at the time, claiming that MJ was a nicer guy and a better teammate, though not an example for human behavior in either of those areas. After watching MJ's Hall of Fame induction speech, I've changed my mind. The only question now is whether MJ is a bigger jerk than Kobe, just that much more talented and a better actor (who also was never accused of rape).

MJ came off in the speech as a bitter, tired aging man who dislikes everyone. As Rick Reilly points out, he dissed anyone who might personally care about him, including his kids and family.

So it leads me to one of three conclusions: 1) He's always been a jerk; 2) He became a jerk over time; and 3) He's not really a jerk, his speech just made him sound like one. I believe it's somewhere between No. 1 and No. 2. There are plenty of stories about his demanding behavior as a teammate, and we know he's a compulsive gambler. Most of what I've read about the man points to a conceeded jerk, and his speech reinforced that.

I don't know if that makes him a bad teammate or not. But in retrospect, he certainly looked like one by how he spoke.

But I can say this for sure: He was a total jerk in his speech, and showed no class, especially compared to David Robinson. Maybe we all want to be like Mike, but we'd rather have our kids grow up to be like David.

Heroes lives, Terminator dies

Last year I had two favorite shows in traditional fall-winter season: Heroes and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. (My two favorite shows on TV, Psych and The Closer, both come in the 'off-season' and are on cable, while Heroes and Terminator appeared on NBC and Fox respectively.) But I had very different relationships with each show.

Heroes was the fulfillment of a life-long dream. Super heroes have never been done particularly well on live-action television, with the possible exception of The Incredible Hulk (1978). The Flash (1990) I loved at the time, but I was 14 and would have loved anything attached to comic books.

So I watched Heroes 2006 debut with eager anticipation. I absolutely loved the first season. Compelling characters, comedy, cool powers, good acting. It worked oh so well, until the season finale, which was a little bit of a mess. It wasn't bad, it just wasn't very good.

And the bleeding continued into Season 2, which was interrupted by the writer's strike. That season was a mess. Nothing made sense, and they messed with every character so much (especially Sylar) that you had no idea who the characters were. That was kind of the point for Season 2, but it didn't work.

Season 3 was also flat. The basic plot was fine; but the individual elements of the plot fell flat. But then the last three episodes before the finale picked up. Sylar was gaining steam. The government conspiracy was falling apart. I was starting to enjoy it again.

Then came the finale. It was awesome. Cool conclusions, and cool character fulfillment. But the ending took a quick right turn into Suckville. Sylar was transformed into Nathan Petrelli? What? This was there only option? Nobody saw tragedylooming behind this decision? I decided then and there I may finally ditch this show after three years.

And then I saw the trailers for Season 3. They looked awesome. So yes, I will be watching tonight, eagerly anticipating again.

Why have I stuck with this show for three years when only a handful of episodes have caught my attention? Because it should be everything I want in television. It should be compelling drama. It should have great characters. It should have cool action. But the show rarely delivers on any of this. But I am still looped in because of the tease: it's a premise I want to see succeed, and enough episodes have delivered to not turn me off completely.

Terminator's debut in 2007 was totally different. I started watching because I liked the first two movies, and I love the premise, but I wasn't entirely sold on it. The first few episodes were OK, but the violence turned my wife off and I was getting a little bored. Then something happened: I began to care about the characters, and each episode was compelling. And my wife was so intrigued she came back and enjoyed the show almost as much as I did.

So here I was watching the Season 2 finale last spring, thinking that the show might survive despite low ratings. First, it was a very good show. Second, with the Terminator: Salvation movie coming in the summer, this might give Fox the juice to keep it going. And third, it was an awesome show!

But then two things happened to doom the show. First, the season finale sucked. It really did. I loved every episode of Season 2, except that one. They changed everything by throwing John Connor into the future, and it took the air out of the narrative. Second, Terminator: Salvation wasn't very good. The cinematography was awesome, but the story was pretty lame. So Terminator was not renewed at Fox, though there are rumors of a TV movie/mini-series to finish things off for the fans. Don't hold your breath.

So here I sit. The better show was canceled and Heroes will probably just tease me again and leave me flat. Maybe I should just rent some DVDs if 24 and Mad Men and call it good.