My original playoff predictions were way off. So much for the Sox-Rox World Series. But I did a much better job in the LCS round, even picking the right number of games per series. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the bullpens are the key. Both teams have potent bats, both teams have some good starters. Both are decent defensive teams, according to Baseball Prosepectus' team defensive efficiency rating.
So the difference is the bullpen. I give the Yanks the edge their because of Mariano Rivera, but I don't trust Joba. I think Hughes will be OK.
The Phillies bullpen is an enigma. Brad Lidge has pitched well in the postseason, but he was awful all season long. So do you trust a streaky closer who has had dominant stretches in the past and has pitched well over the last 1 week+, or do you look at the season?
I think Lidge will implode against the tough Yankees lineup. There really isn't an easy out in the group, and if Teixiera starts hitting, there isn't a better 1-2-3-4 combo in baseball than Jeter-Damon-Tex-ARod. If Lidge has to pitch to that group, watch out. We could see some massive moonshots.
I don't trust the Phillies bullpen, even if the Yanks have some question marks. Yanks in 6.
But really it doesn't matter to me. As my brother recently said on Facebook that you're picking between two evil forces. I agree. I have never routed for a Philadelpia team, and I certainly would only root for the Yankees if they were playing Minions of Satan. So I'm not particularly thrilled with this matchup.
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