Conference Championships Preview

Though I didn’t post my picks on the blog, last week I was 2-2 (after an 0-4 wildcard weekend). I was right with the Saints and Colts, wrong on the Jets and Vikings. So before we venture to the conference championship games, let’s look back at things we learned (or think we learned) last weekend.

The Chargers need a running game. LDT is done, and Sproles is a HR-hitter who’s not an everydown player. Now, they don’t need an elite running game, but someone who doesn’t fall over every time they’re touched would be great.

Romo is the new choke QB. Stand aside Donovan McNabb, here’s Romo! Fair or not, he’s the new top-level QB who ‘chokes’ in big games. Apologies to Carson Palmer.

Brett Favre is still really good. All of the anti-Favre audience was waiting for him to make a big mistake this week, and he didn’t. And with a offensive line that apparently forgot how to run block, AP still did enough to keep the defense honest.

The Jets are better than we thought. Their defense is good. There, I said it.

Now to the picks:

Vikings @ Saints
If the over/under for 50+ yard plays was set at 4, would you take the over or under? I would be very tempted to take the over. Both of these are big play offenses, and both defenses can be exploited by good QBs. Both teams have lots of weapons. Both teams have opportunistic defenses. Both have game-changes on special teams. This seems like a very close game to me. The difference could be if the Vikings D-line can duplicate the effort they had against the Cowboys. But in the end, I think it will be the young gunslinger over the old gunslinger.

Pick: Saints 31, Vikings 28

Jets @ Colts
I don’t really believe in the Jets. Their defense is good, but Sanchez is not a good QB (yet). If they’re down two scores in the third quarter, Sanchez will self-destruct. And Manning can neutralize good blitzing teams by getting rid of the ball. And so what if Revis shuts out Reggie Wayne? Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, the French guy; Manning has plenty of weapons. And I bet you Wayne gets free from Revis 3-4 times in the game, and Manning will hit him 2-3 of those time.

Pick: Colts 21, Jets 3