Wednesday, June 30, 2010

The panicking Mets

What's with all the panic in NY surrounding the Mets? Do they really have to acquire Cliff Lee to secure a playoff spot?

The 2010 season thus far would say no. The Mets are 1.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East and are the WC leader. Granted, the WC is very tight, with the Cardinals, Phillies, Dodgers and Giants all within 3 games, so lots of potential to blow it. And we know that the Mets have blown it in recent years, so the panic is warranted to some degree.

But do they need Lee? And at what cost? According to Fangraphs.com, the Mets have the 10th best offense in the NL. If you look at their team page at BaseballReference.com, they have some easy upgrades to the lineup: Franceour is not good, but the Mets have Carlos Beltran returning and if the Mets are smart (a big leap there) Angel Pagan will start over Franceour. The other hole is Luis Castillo as 2B. They should be able to better a 624 OPS (and he's below average in the field as well).

Back to Fangraphs, the Mets are similarly 10th in pitching. They have three plus starters (Santana, Pelfrey and Dickey), and a mish-mash group behind them (not that different from the
a lot of teams). The bullpen is actually an area of need as well.

So could the Mets use Cliff Lee? Absolutely, almost any contender could. But the Mariners are likely going to want top prospects, and the Mets might mortgage their future in a year when they could make the playoffs anyway. They have good internal options to upgrade the OF, and upgrading 2B would be cheaper. Can you say Dan Uggla?

So before the New York media pressure Omar Minaya into mortgaging the future for Lee (who would be a tremendous rental arm), the Mets have other areas where an impact upgrade could be made at a fraction of the cost.

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