Why I Was Wrong About the Red Sox

A little more than a month ago, I wrote that the Rays and the Yankees couldn't be beat. Apparently I'm an idiot. You can look at the May 18, 2010, standings here. The Red Sox were 8.5 games behind the division-leading Rays, and 5 games behind the Yanks. Before games are played on June 22, Boston is tied with Tampa Bay, both teams half a game behind New York. How did this happen?

In there last 30 games, the Sox have been scorching hot, winning 22. The Yanks have been very good, winning 18, and the Rays have been poor, winning just 14. But we can dig deeper.

As of today, the most prolific offense in the American League, measured by the most runs scored. How is that possible? Going by games played, this is the most frequent lineup OF lineup with OPS+ in parentheses: Jeremy Hermida in LF (70), Darnell McDonald in CF (86), JD Drew in RF (116). Keep in mind that Hermida is an fielder at best, and McDonald is not a CF at all. Bill Hall has played a lot in the OF, including CF (though the numbers say he's been an average fielder, maybe even better than that). How can the offense be this good with this OF?

On offense it comes down to five key players, all of whom I will briefly discuss:

• Kevin Youkilis. He's awesome. He leads the team in most meaningful statistics. According to Fangraphs, he's the second best hitter in baseball this year. He runs the bases well, hits for power, takes his walks, fields his position well. It really irks me sometimes when I hear some Sox fans say that our lineup isn't what it used to be. Youk may not be Manny in his prime, but he's far superior to Jason Bay, and he's having an all-time awesome season. Open your eyes people.
• Adrian Beltre. All of you who thought that by mid-June Beltre would be a Top 15 hitter in the AL, raise your hands? Yeah, me neither. I think his BA with come down and so will his value at the plate (his BABIP is too high at .373), but I also think his fielding will get better. Either way, the signing has been a success (except for him breaking ribs).
• David Ortiz. Two months ago, I discussed trading for a Big Papi replacement. That would have been dumb. The guy is hitting 260/366/555. He's got 15 HRs, the most he's ever had by this point in a season. There's nothing fluky about his numbers. I am sorry Big Papi; can you forgive me?
• Dustin Pedroia. Another very good season from Pedroia, including his usual stellar glove work. Solid.
• Victor Martinez. He started off slow, but he's rebounded nicely. He's pounding LHP, and struggling a bit vs. RHP (which I think is an anomaly). I think he'll come back to earth against LHPs, and will improve against RHPs.

To sum up on the lineup, this is the best lineup in baseball (at least it has been thus far). It may not be the flashiest, but it has been the best.

Pitching has been a two-sided story. Again referencing Fangraphs, Boston has the 3rd best starting rotation in the league, thanks to awesome pitching by Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Dice-K and Lackey have been average, Wakefield has been OK, and Beckett has been awful.

Unfortunately, the bullpen is the other side of that coin. They have been awful, 2nd worst in the league, only bettering Baltimore. Do you know who's been above-average in the pen this year? Daniel Bard. That's it. Papelbon has been shaky, and the rest of the bullpen is very questionable.

But here we sit on June 22, and the Sox are in it. The Rays lineup looks average, and the young pitching is regressing a little. And the Yankees don't look so unbeatable. So forget everything I wrote a month ago about the Sox being done and go back to my AL preview. The Sox are going to make the playoffs.

World Cup: Weekend of soccer

First off, I am not a diehard soccer fan. I follow the Word Cup every four years, and I occasionally catch an MLS match or a FIFA friendly (usually involving the USA). So everything written after this needs to be read in that light. But I love the World Cup. I love the passion of the fans, the incredible ability of the players, and the rhythm of the game, which to me is a combination of hockey and baseball. It is a strategic, slow-paced sport, combined with frenetic, physical combat around the goals. Great stuff.

There are some things though that FIFA needs to address:

• More officials. The NBA has three officials on the field, the NFL more. MLB has three-man crews, and adds additional umps for the postseason. And FIFA thinks one guy roaming that huge pitch is sufficient (with a couple of linesmen)? Come one. The foul on the US was symptomatic of this. FIFA needs an official closer to the goal who can see the physicality on corners and free kicks and let offensive players make a play. The physical nature of soccer is one of its charms, but mugging a player at the goal (and missing obvious calls) is just plain annoying and detracts from an otherwise terrific sport. Even increasing to two officials would make a huge difference.
• Stop the flop. Now before the more dedicated footballers tell me to get back to writing about baseball, let me say that I don't find the flooping in soccer any more offensive than I find in the NBA or than WRs falling over and trying to draw interference calls in American football. I get that it's part of the game. I also know that soccer is a very physical sport, and injuries are common. But please stop holding your face when you were whacked in the shoulder. And please stop grabbing your knee, and then popping up when a yellow card is issued. I'm not saying replay should be used in game (though I'm not against it), but I think FIFA should think long and hard about handing out very stiff penalties against obvious cheaters. I know they do it sometimes, but they should do it more.

This past weekend I watched 4 matches, and here are my thoughts on each.

USA 2, Slovenia 2 (Friday)
Alexi Lalas in the postgame basically said that the Americans shouldn't blame the officials, that they played liked crap for the first 45 minutes, and that if they had turned in a decent first half, that the awful call wouldn't have mattered. That's a load of crap.

All teams have bad sections of a game. Soccer, because of it's low scoring, is hyper-sensitive to these bad periods. But the US did come back and scored two goals, and made the play to score another. They were robbed. Yes, going forward, they can't dwell on it. But make no mistake: that ref made a huge mistake, and seeing him act as a back-up on Sunday was weird. Even if FIFA doesn't feel like the mistake wasn't worth taking action, from a PR standpoint, I would keep the dude as far away from a pitch as possible for the remainder of the Cup.

All of that being said, what that game proved is that when the US is clicking, they can move the ball and create very quick scoring opportunities. Assuming they make it to the next round (which is certainly still a big if), they could surprise, especially against weaker defensive squads. It would be great to watch the Yanks make a run.

Netherlands 1, Japan 0 (Saturday)
'There's only two things I hate in this world. People who are intolerant of other people's cultures and the Dutch.' A great quote from a lousy movie (Austin Powers) that actually has nothing to do with this game. But it kept running through my mind the entire time. My actual age: 14.

The Dutch showed something: their usual flashy style isn't necessary, as they scored early in the second half and put the clamps down on Japan, pretty much putting a stamp on the next round.

Italy 1, New Zealand 1 (Sunday)
So, what's up with these big-time European powers like France and Italy playing themselves out of potentially playing in the second round? Now, Italy is still in the driver's seat, and can get into the second round with a convincing win over Slovakia, but man, this match was winnable. They had the most talent, but the Kiwis wanted it and made plays on both sides of the pitch. Fun match.

Brazil 3, Ivory Coast 1 (Sunday)
Besides the US comeback on Friday, my favorite match of the Cup so far. Watching Brazil is like watching the Phoenix Suns in basketball: it's just more fun. Now the last 20 minutes turned into an ugly slugfest, with Kaka getting a second yellow card for standing on the field and having a guy run into him. Regardless, Brazil and Portugal are in the next round after Portugal's 7-0 dismantling of Korea this morning.

I just love watching Brazil. People keep asking me who my second team is after the US. Usually I route for England for whatever reason, not sure why. I'm part British, but I'm also part French and German, so that doesn't really make sense. I like watching Mexico, but they're our rivals, so I can't route for them. So for me it's come down to Brazil or Argentina, but I've stayed away from Brazil because how can your second team be the No. 1 team in the world? Isn't that the pansy pick?

Screw it. They are my second team. I don't really care if they win the whole thing or not, but I want them in the Final because that team is the most fun to watch.

So go USA, and if it can't be USA, then let it be Brazil. And anytime I can say Kaka in a sentence, I will take that opportunity. Remember my true age: 14.

Celtics-Lakers: Boston falls short

As I wrote after Game 6, I thought Artest and Odom were the keys for the Lakers. Well, Odom was largely invisible, but Artest shined with his best overall game of the series. With Kobe being double-teamed and forcing shots, and Gasol struggling at time on the offensive end, Artest delivered 20 points. He also added 5 steals, and played the best defense against Paul Pierce he'd played in the seven games. He played like the Artest of old.

Gasol, though sometimes shaky on the offensive end and playing a little matador defense on KG, rebounded like a man possessed. Eighteen boards, including 9 offensive.

Kobe played poorly. If the Celtics had won this game, he should have shouldered much of the blame. While getting double-teamed, he forced up too many bad shots. He did rebound well (15), but this was not his game.

KG is a shadow of the old KG monster. In a game without Kendrick Perkins, he had three rebounds. Three? This guy average double digit rebounds for ten straight seasons. He couldn't manage a big rebounding game for an NBA title?

Ray Allen didn't lose the game (it's more complicated than that), but 3-14 shooting is unbelievable. His defense on Kobe was very good in this series, but after game 2, his shooting touch disappeared, and that will haunt this team for a long time.

Rajon Rondo is awesome. His playoff line: 16-6-9. His Finals line: 13-6-8. When the Celtics run, they are nearly unstoppable. I think, with the right cast, Boston could be a contender for a long time with Rondo at the helm.

Doc Rivers is a good coach, but not a great one. Jeff Van Gundy had it right: Artest had proved during this series that Pierce could not go iso, but Rivers let Pierce do that too often. They needed more pick and rolls, more movement for Pierce off screens to get open looks from Artest's suffocating D. Artest was too good.

The officiating did not lose the Celtics this series, but it did get frustrating that Pierce shot 8 free throws in the final three games, while Kobe shot 31. The discrepancy is too much. Pierce drives a little less, but I've never seen anyone get so many calls on three point shots since Reggie Miller, and not one but Dwyane Wade gets as many calls going to the hoop.

I'm tired of floppers and whiners, and both teams provided shining moments of this annoying behavior. Just stop it, Rasheed, Pau, Fisher, Duncan, everyone! You occasionally do commit fouls and you sometimes tip the ball out of bounds. Shut it!

Finally, I would say congrats to the Lakers, but I wouln't mean it, so I won't.

The Career of Han Solo

Several of weeks ago I looked back at my favorite all-time movies of Tom Cruise. Today I look at my favorite movies of Harrison Ford.

As a young guy, Harrison Ford was my movie hero. His two most iconic characters, Han Solo and Indiana Jones, were the kind of heroes I acted out being as a kid. And truth be told, they're the kind of heroes I still want to be. They had swagger, they were cool, and they were heroic. He has parlayed those two roles into a 30-year career that has taken him from being a space smuggler to the president of the United States. And I've watched almost all of it.

Now this top ten is not representative of these movies on their own, but more my favorite Harrison Ford performances. So here's the Harrison Ford top ten.

1. Raider of the Lost Ark (1981)
2. The Empire Strikes Back (1980)
3. Star Wars (1977)
4. Patriot Games (1992)
5. The Fugitive (1993)
6. Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)
7. Blade Runner (1982)
8. Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984)
9. Air Force One (1997)
10. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008)

There really is only one Harrison Ford movie I hate: 'Six Days Seven Nights' (1998), a forgettable action film with Anne Heche when she was still with Ellen. I've at least found something to like in everything else (even 'Mosquito Coast' (1986).

Now why isn't Harrison Ford's career as prolific as Tom Cruise's? A couple of reasons. First, his big break came with 'American Graffiti' in 1973; he was 31. He wasn't an icon until he was 35 with 'Star Wars' and didn't have his own franchise until 1981. Second, he just didn't make as many movies as Cruise.

Still, look at that list. What an awesome career. He's still one of my movie heroes. And since I just turned 34, he shows you can still have quite a career even if you don't get a big break until you're mid-30s.

On DVD: New Moon

When this is posted many of my male readers (all four of you) will ask for my man card, but I have a few things to say to you:

• I'm married. My wife is a Twilight-nerd and wanted me to watch it
• The movie has vampires and werewolves
• Who's to say I didn't lose my man card the day I uttered the phrase, "I think I really like 'Sleepless in Seattle.'"

So, take your shots, you mocking horde. I will go on with my movie review.

What worked
It's almost impossible for me to not compare this to the first Twilight movie, which I reviewed last year. So I'm breaking it down, and saying why this was better in this movie:

• Better special effects. The effects were very cheesy in the first one. And though they weren't top notch in this one, they weren't distracting.
• Vampires fight werewolves. The first film suffered from having too little action. This one still didn't have enough, but it ramped it up.
• Less Edward. Robert Pattinson stinks. He plays Edward as this pouty, whiny, annoying guy, that I hope gets his head ripped off. Unfortunately he survives.
• The story works for the most part. It's not a great story, but it's interesting enough.

What didn't work
Still too much cheese and teen love angst for my taste. I would have also liked more action, more chasing vampires by werewolves, and more backstory about what the werewolves and vampires can and can't do. My wife said it's in the book, and maybe they left it out because all the Twilight nerds would already know. But I wanted to know more about the fantasy behind the world.

Who would like this
I'm guessing most Twilight fans or people who enjoyed the first movie would like it, though I don't know how far they strayed from the book (because I haven't read it). Also, if you like romantic action movies (a small genre to be sure), this fits.

Who wouldn't like this
If you hated the first one, this one might be worth a rental, but probably not. Also, if you loved the book and you're the type where movies ruin your favorite books, I'd stay away. It's also dark fantasy with vampires and werewolves, and some might be creeped out by that.

Closing Credits
It was a decent movie that kept me entertained. I'm not likely to watch another Twilight movie in the theater, mainly because I have a tendency to laugh during the extra cheesy sections, which may get me killed by a crazy mob of 14 year-olds and cougars. Still, it's not a bad movie, and I like fantasy, I like vampires and werewolves, and I was emotionally invested in the outcome. That's sufficient for me.

Celtics-Lakers: One Game to Bind Them

Game 6 of this series stunk as a Celtics fan. The Lakers defense was very good, but there were opportunities. The second half opened with a series of missed layups and missed chances. So what will the deciding factors be for Game 7? What will decide the fate of the 2010 NBA Championship and the latest bragging rights in the historic Boston-LA feud? Glad you asked.

Odom and Artest. Neither player was spectacular in Game 6, but the key was they both contributed positively. The Lakers don't need either player to carry the team (Kobe and Gasol will do that), but they can't suck. The Celtics (on most nights) are two good for Kobe and Gasol to do it alone.

Injured big men. In the last two games Andrew Bynum has played largely ineffective minutes. It really hurt the Lakers in Game 5, but didn't make much of a difference in Game 6. Why? Because Kendrick Perkins left the game early, and Gasol was such a monster (17-13-9-3), that he filled the holes. But Bynum is the glue when Gasol is struggling, and he's the one post player the Celtics struggle to defend (when he's on). Perkins' injury could be devastating for the Celtics. He's one of only two plus post defenders (Rasheed being the other, and he's a nut job), with KG showing flashes of his old defensive brilliance only occasionally. Sheldon Williams, in 14 rust-filled minutes, showed why he's on the bench.

Where for art thou Rondo? After starting the playoffs brilliantly and staking his claim to best PG in the land, Rondo is slowing disappearing from the Finals stage. Yes, he threw up a decent line (10-5-6-2), but he was 5-15 shooting, including half a dozen missed layups (though the degree of difficulty was high). I know I keep harping on this, but something is off with Rondo. The Celtics need a monster Game 7 from him to get it done.

So those are the keys. Celtics in 7.

One more thing: Sasha Vujacic and Tony Allen are two of the most frustrating players alive. Yes, they both have their uses, but they both make 2-3 dumb plays a game that makes you wonder if this is there first pro game. Let me illustrate.

Sasha, toward the end of the 1st half, was trailing on a break. Kobe was being guarded on mismatch by Rondo (which happened a lot last night) and Odom was being guarded by Ray Allen. Two mismatches on the secondary break. So what does Sasha do? He jacks up a contested three. If I was a Lakers fan I would have been throwing my Jack sunglasses at the TV.

But Tony didn't want to be outdone. Later in the game he called for the ball and posted up. The only time Tony Allen should call for the ball in a post up situation is if one of his kids is guarding him at a family picnic. Even then, he'll stick brick the layup.

So I'm pretty sure if those two ever end up on the same team, the universe may explode.

Celtics-Lakers: A crazy 4th quarter

As I was discussing this series Saturday night with a friend, he said he thought Game 5 was the game of the series. I completely agreed, and the game did not disappoint. But instead of my usual 'thoughts' piece, here are my thoughts on the key plays of our crazy 4th quarter.

• 3:56 Rondo makes an amazing tip shot, Celtics 87-75. He leaps above two bigger Lakers to make this happen. I mention to my wife that if we were having a boy his name would need to be Rondo. She closes her eyes and forces herself to sleep.
• 2:55 Kobe makes two free throws, Celtics 87-78. Why is this important? Because Artest and the other Lakers forgot how to make free throws in this game.
• 2:06 Ray Allen misses a three. This was a really bad call. Ray missed the rim by inches, but the refs said it hit the rim, so Perkins' offensive rebound stood instead of a 24-second violation. The Celtics took time off the clock, but did not score.
• 1:30 Kobe makes three free throws, Celtics 87-82. R. Allen has fouled Kobe a couple of times shooting threes in this series. It looked pretty mild on the replay, but I don't play the officials for calling it.
• 0:46 KG loses a jumpball to Derek Fisher. Yeah, you read that right. I think it's safe to say that KG has lost a little explosiveness.
• 0:40 Pierce gets a defensive rebound off of missed Artest free throw. Really, Kobe came from the three point line and made a great play for the rebound, then Pierce swept in and stole it out of his hands. Kobe got pissed about this, but the replay showed it was a good physical play. Artest was 1-4 shooting free throws, all in the 4th quarter.
• 0:38 Boston calls timeout. After the rebound, Pierce was having trouble getting the ball up the court and wisely called timeout.
• 0:35 Rondo makes two point shot. That what's ESPN's play-by-play says, but let's break down the most important and amazing play of the playoffs. KG is inbounding (not sure why, maybe because of his height). He's having trouble getting it in. Pierce releases toward the hoop. KG lets lose a baseball pass that Pierce catches over his shoulder off balance, falling out of bounds. Rondo cuts to the basket and Pierce throws a perfect pass. Rondo layup. My description is lame compared to the actual play. My wife was asleep, and I had been quite most of the quarter, but I let out a 'yelp' of some sort after Rondo's layup, which woke her up. She thought a seagull had hit our window.
• 0:18 Fisher personal foul on Ray Allen. This was the icing. Rondo even got the ball on this play, but he was too fast for Artest and was able to give it up before anyone touched him. Of course, Allen drains the freebies.

Other thoughts:

• I've mentioned this before, and I might again: Artest is a shadow of his former shelf. He is doing a decent on Pierce in this series, but he can't guard any other key Boston player. He's too slow for Rondo, and Phil Jackson made the tactical error of putting Artest on Rondo in the closing minutes, which led to a layup and missed opportunity to foul a poor free throw shooter. And he can't guard small bigs anymore. Farmar or Brown should have been guarding Rondo in the final minutes.
• The officiating continues to stink. After three quarters of decent officiating, the zebras decided to put their fingerprints on the 4th quarter. Again, it's stinking both ways, so I'm claiming no conspiracy here, but man Stern needs to do something.

Celtics in 6.