National League Preview

NL East
New York (94 wins)
The Mets offense is the best in the NL, and the pitching is good and will be better with the addition of K-Rod and Putz. The starting pitching is shallow, and I think they could have benefited by bringing Pedro back (though I understand why they didn’t). Still, I love the offense, and the defense has few holes. Why I might be wrong: When Mike Pelfrey and Odalis Perez are your #2 and #3 starters, you could be in trouble.

Philadelphia (91)
I also like the Phillies, just not as much as the Mets. My biggest worry: Ryan Howard. His OBP and SLG have been a steady decline since his MVP 2006 season. According to our friends at Baseball Prospectus and the stat VORP, Howard was only the 9th best 1B in baseball, just a few runs ahead of Joey Votto. Why I might be wrong: Raul Ibanez awful defense may hurt more than I think it will. Hamels and the bullpen could regress.

Atlanta (81)
A lot of smarter people than me are picking the Braves to have a playoff caliber year. I just don’t see it. The pitching is old (besides Jurrjens), and the starting outfield is Garrett Anderson, the winner of the CF ‘battle’ (Gregor Blanco or Jordan Schafer), and Jeff Francoeur (the worst offensive RF in baseball last season, and he sucked in the field too). This looks like a .500 team to me. Why I might be wrong: They could be worse if the pitching totally collapses or Chipper goes down for a long time.

Florida (75)
The Marlins will score runs with a young, exciting lineup. But I think the pitching could be awful, with Nolasco as the only true plus-pitcher in the bunch. Why I might be wrong: If the pitching works out, this team could win the division or wild card if other teams falter. This team has a lot of upside, and if I was picking a surprise division winner in the NL, the Marlins would be it.

Washington (67)
It’s never good to start the season with the resignation of your GM. The good news is Bowden wasn’t very good, so things may be looking up for the moribund Nationals franchise. Still, this season won’t be pretty. The offense is bad (even with the addition of Dunn) and they can’t prevent runs either. Why I might be wrong: If anything, I was too optimistic on the win total. I think Ryan Zimmerman will have a good season.

NL Central
Chicago (99)
The most hilarious thing when you read about the Cubs is the old “they’re built to win 97 games, but not the postseason.” Total crap. The real key last year was the team peaked early and was not playing well when the postseason came around. Regardless, the team is still very good and will cruise to its third straight NL Central title. Why I might be wrong: The loss of Mark DeRosa might be bigger than I think, and the bullpen is a bit of question mark.

St. Louis (84)
Tony LaRussa is not a genius. But he is pretty good at his job, and is willing to try new things. Trying Schumaker at 2B could be a stroke of genius, or a disaster. I still think it’s a good risk. I still don’t think they have the pitching to contend for playoff spot. Why I might be wrong: I have the pitching declining from last season, and that might change if Chris Carpenter returns to form. If so, watch out Cubbies.

Milwaukee (80)
I really wanted to put Milwaukee back in the playoff picture, but I don’t see it. Too many question marks in the rotation and the bullpen. Can they score runs? Possibly, but besides Braun and Fielder, no one else excites me in the lineup. Why I might be wrong: Yovani Gallardo is awesome, and he could fill the mammoth void left by C.C. If he does and Hart, Hall and Hardy hit well, the Brew Crew could contend.

Houston (78)
If you take a quick look at Houston’s lineup, they have an awesome core in Berkman, Carlos Lee, and 45-year-old Miguel Tejada. But man does it drop off a cliff after that. And behind Oswalt in the rotation, it’s Wandy Rodriguez (who has his first good season last year at age 29) and a bunch of old questions marks. Color me skeptical. Why I might be wrong: I don’t see a lot of upside, but if the old veteran starters perform, they could surprise.

Pittsburgh (72)
Do you know when the Pirates last made the postseason? 1992. Some guy named Bonds was their best player. Their last winning season? Yep, 1992. This is a lousy franchise that has little to cheer about since Barry left for the greener pastures of San Francisco. Nothing will change this year. Why I might be wrong: There is some long-term hope in the pipeline, and maybe some youngsters (the LaRoche brothers, Zach Duke) can step up and help Nate McLouth, who’s stranded on desert island.

Cincinnati (67)
Things have been marginally better for the Reds over the last 20 years, with their last postseason appearance in 1995 and 96-win season as recent as 1999. Oh yeah, that was 10 years ago. Is there some young talent on this team? Yes, but not enough to contend for more than a battle with Pittsburgh to not be the division’s worst. Why I might be wrong: If Jay Bruce joins Votto as a star, and Volquez and Cueto arrive, this team could be the new Rays.

NL West
Los Angeles (88)
Resigning Manny sealed this for me. None of the West’s teams are very good, and the Dodgers became the best by bringing back the borderline crazy genius. They have struggled to score runs over the past couple of years, but they should be better at that this year with a full year of crazy Manny. Why I might be wrong: When Eric Milton is your back-up if one of your starters break down, this could become a could term into a long summer in LA very quickly.

San Francisco (80)
The Giants are the cute pick in the NL to contend. Not saying they won’t (the division is lousy), but they’re offensive holes are huge, and the pitching is all a question mark after Cy Young-winner Lincecum. Why I might be wrong: A full season of Randy Johnson could push them past LA if the Dodgers stumble.

Arizona (77)
I would have liked the D-Backs’ chances better if they had retained Adam Dunn. The offense is young, and not very good. Yeah, Conor Jackson may blossom, but he’s 26 and he’s only a decent hitter. Stephen Drew is more likely to have the breakout year. Why I might be wrong: Young teams can always surprise, but I think the pitching will be worse than 2008 and the hitting will not be better enough to compensate.

Colorado (76)
Last year the Rockies didn’t hit or pitch particularly well, and they played lousy defense. And somehow they scratched their way to 74 wins. I think the pitching and defense will be better, but the offense is not good. Why I might be wrong: Tulowitski might return to 2007 form, and the pitching could be sufficient in a weak division.

Padres (69)
The Padres are a good defensive team, and I think the pitching will be improved in 2009. The offense will still stink. They could improve it by moving Kouzmanoff to the bench, and shifting Chase Headley from left field (where he’s below average defensively) to 3B (where he’s better than Kouz). Then Cliff Floyd could get more ABs. It ain’t rocket science folks. Why I might be wrong: Even with the moves I suggested, this looks like a last place team.

NLDS
Chicago over Philadelphia
Los Angeles over New York

NLCS
Chicago over Los Angeles

World Series
Chicago over Cleveland