NBA Playoff Preview

The NBA Playoffs are upon us, and to me this is even more exciting than March Madness, for several reasons:

• It last longer
• NBA talent is the best in the world
• LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Pierce, and a few others have made the NBA playoffs over the past 3-5 seasons as exciting as any stretch during my lifetime
• I root for a team that's relevant

So without further pontificating, here's the NBA playoff preview. I'm going to rely heavily on John Hollinger's team stats on ESPN.com. I'm also pulling stuff from 82games.com and Basketball-Reference.com.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland vs. Detroit
According to Hollinger, the Cavs have the 4th best offense and the 3rd best defense, a killer combination. The Pistons are a fairly weak offensive team (21st) and middle of the road defensive team (16th). Match-ups are bad for the Pistons, and Tayshaun has shown he can't contain LeBron, and no one on the Pistons roster can match the energy of Varejao. And if you look at win shares or Roland Rating, the Pistons don't have a singular regular who is more valuable than Ilgauskus, Varejao and Mo Williams. In other words: Pure Cleveland domination. Prediction: Cavs in 4.

Boston vs. Chicago
This would have been much easier to call if KG was healthy. Still, the trio of Pierce/Allen/Rondo is better than anything Chicago can throw out there. The key match-up in the series is Rondo vs. Derrick Rose. If Rondo controls Rose, this series could get very short. Prediction: Boston in 6.

Orlando v. Philadelphia
This is where things get a little more interesting in the East. Orlando is the 8th best offensive team and top defensive team, so this seems like a no brainer, as the Sixers barely outscored their opponents over the season. But I like Andre Miller to carve up Orlando (relatively speaking) and I'm not sold on Dwight 'Superman' Howard as a playoff performer yet. Still, Orlando's firepower will be too much. Prediction: Orlando in 6.

Atlanta vs. Miami
Two words for you: Dwayne Wade. Throw out most of the stats. Neither team is dominant on either end of the floor, and when a team is evenly matched like this, I go with the best player. Prediction: Miami in 6.

Second Round
Cleveland over Miami in a heart-stopping 7-game series
Boston over Orlando, even without KG, in 7 games

Eastern Conference Championship
The LeBrons march past the KG-less Celtics in 5 games

Western Conference
Lakers vs. Utah
As much as I like Deron Williams and the Jazz, they cannot compete with the firepower of the Lakers. On a side note, according to Basketball-Reference.com, Gasol was more valuable than Kobe this year (Win Shares, scroll to the bottom of the page). Most other measures give Kobe a slight edge (including Hollinger's PER). Is the gap between Gasol and Kobe not that big, or are the numbers just not measuring all that happens on the court? Interesting topic. Discuss. Prediction: Lakers in 5.

Denver vs. New Orleans
According to Hollinger's aforementioned PER ranking, Carmelo is the 33rd best player in the league, behind the likes of Vince Carter and Leandro Barbosa. This smells to me like the best opening round series, and an upset special. Yes, the Hornets are a little thin behind Chris Paul, but they have CP3 and Denver doesn't. Prediction: Hornets in 7.

San Antonio vs. Dallas
The Spurs are still a very good defensive team, but no longer among the elite. But Duncan is still a top 10 player (though fading) and they have the weapons to handle the Mavs. I would have liked them a lot more if Manu was still playing, but the Spurs are still very dangerous. Prediction: Spurs in 6.

Portland vs. Houston
This should be an awesome series. Tracy McGrady has proven he is not an NBA difference-maker. You could make the argument that, when healthy, he's the 3rd or 4th best player on the Rockets. Good riddance. On the other side, the Blazers are loaded, with seven really good players. They are also opposites. Portland is one of the better offensive teams in the league, while the Rockets are defensive team. I'll take the deeper team with the best player in the series (Brandon Roy). Prediction: Portland in 6.

Western Conference Semi-finals
Lakers over Portland in a thrilling 7-game series
San Antonio over New Orleans in 6 games

Western Conference Finals
Lakers over San Antonio in 5 games. The Spurs will run out of gas.

NBA Finals
Cleveland over Lakers in 6 games. LeBron will be too much for LA.